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News

Mamdani’s Primary Win in NYC and What It May Say about National Politics

July 1, 2025

Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani clinched the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor, defeating former state Governor Andrew Cuomo in the June 24 primary. With 93% of votes counted, 33-year-old Mamdani led with 43.5% to Cuomo’s 36.4%, prompting Cuomo to concede the race.

Why it matters: Mamdani’s victory is described as a “political earthquake” and hailed by some observers as a significant shift within the Democratic Party toward younger, progressive candidates.
 
What's next: As the general election approaches, Mamdani is expected to face incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, running as an independent, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo has also teased running as an independent in the general election this fall.
 
What they are saying: Mamdani’s win has set off a large debate within the Democratic party about how his win may affect the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election.
 
  • His campaign focused on affordability for working-class New Yorkers, proposing initiatives like freezing rents for rent-stabilized apartment owners, free public transportation, universal childcare, and the construction of 200,000 affordable housing units
  • Mamdani’s political career began with a successful bid for the New York State Assembly in 2020. He represents Queens’ 36th District. His endorsements from prominent progressives such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez further bolstered his appeal. 

According to Jacobin, this primary race vindicates an economic-populist strategy that embraces bread-and-butter economic issues some Democrats have advocated for:

His campaign was highly disciplined, with a tight focus on housing, transportation, wages, and the everyday cost of living. That message reached not just core progressive constituencies but many working-class New Yorkers, who have traditionally shied away from progressive challengers or sat out Democratic primaries altogether.
Meanwhile, moderate Democrats view Mamdani’s victory as a possible liability for future elections. Some party members openly question if this win could spell trouble for them in 2026, and two moderate members from New York are already distancing themselves from Mamdani. 

According to Politico:
Rep. Laura Gillen, who represents a battleground district on Long Island, posted on social media that Mamdani was “too extreme to lead New York City,” and Rep. Tom Suozzi, whose district in Queens and the surrounding suburbs voted for Trump, said “concerns remain” about Mamdani.
The bottom line: Democrats will parse the meaning of Mamdani’s win for months. The final results in November could be an indicator of how Democrats tailor their messaging for the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race.

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

Contact 

James Montfort
Manager,
Government Relations
202.448.0857
jmontfort@crefc.org
Image of New York City Buildings
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Mamdani’s Primary Win in NYC and What It May Say about National Politics
July 1, 2025
Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani clinched the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor, defeating former state Governor Andrew Cuomo in the June 24 primary.

News

Economy, The Fed and Rates

July 1, 2025


The Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

Economic Data & Inflation
 
  • May inflation slightly hotter: Core PCE rose 0.2% m/m (vs 0.1% expected), with the annual rate at 2.7%. Overall PCE rose to 2.3% y/y, up from a revised 2.2%. Consumer prices overall rose 0.1%, lifting the annual rate to 2.3%.
  • Consumer spending weakened: Personal spending fell 0.3% in real terms for May, down from April’s 0.1% increase. Personal income fell 0.4%, the most since 2021, reflecting a reversal of April’s Social Security payment spike.
  • Q1 GDP revised lower: GDP contracted at a -0.5% annual rate vs a second estimate of -0.2%. Personal consumption rose just 0.5% vs. a second estimate of 1.2%, marking the weakest pace in almost two years.
  • Labor market cooling gradually: Initial jobless claims fell to 236,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.97 million for the week ended June 14 - the highest since November 2021. This suggests employers are slowing hiring rather than laying off workers.
  • Consumer sentiment rebounds: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 60.7 from 52.2, an 8.5-point increase and the largest since the start of 2024. One-year inflation expectations improved to 5% from 6.6% in May.

Federal Reserve Outlook

  • Market anticipates a more dovish post-Powell Fed: Traders are pricing in five quarter-point rate cuts by year-end 2026, betting that a Trump administration appoints a more accommodative Fed chair after Powell’s term ends in May 2026.
  • Diverging Fed voices: Fed Governors Waller and Bowman favor a July rate cut, downplaying tariff-driven inflation, while Chair Powell advocates waiting until fall for more clarity on inflation trajectories.

Market Dynamics & Treasury Yields

  • Stocks defying skeptics: The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, completing a 27% rally from April lows. The recovery reflects confidence that Trump will moderate his most aggressive tariff threats and that the economy can weather current uncertainties.
  • Bond market sending warning signals: The 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at around 4.28%, up about 60-70 bps above last September’s lows. This persistence despite rate cut expectations reflects growing concerns about fiscal sustainability and inflation risks.
  • Dollar weakness raises alarm: The dollar fell to a three-year low, breaking its traditional positive correlation with Treasury yields. Citadel’s Michael de Pass warned that this divergence reflects questions about U.S. “institutional integrity” and policy predictability.
  • Corporate bonds resilient: The gap between corporate bond yields and Treasuries is near the tightest since 2005, reflecting investor confidence in the Fed achieving a "soft landing." Foreign investors bought about $45 billion of US corporate notes in April, the most in six months, according to Citigroup's analysis of Treasury data.

Implications For the CRE Finance Market

  • High yields pressure cap rates: The elevated 10-year Treasury yield is keeping office capitalization rates high, which must fall for asset values to recover. The current spread to Treasuries is below the historical average, suggesting a sustained drop in yields is needed to spur an office market recovery.
  • Financing conditions are tight: New debt is available for top-tier properties, but with implied coupons approaching 7%, many deals are uneconomical.
  • Path of rates matters for financing: A higher likelihood of five Fed cuts (by year-end 2026) would ease SOFR-linked debt costs, improving floating-rate loan performance and encouraging transaction activity.
  • Credit market strength offers a tailwind: Strong demand for investment-grade U.S. debt indicates a persistent global appetite for yield, likely to support CMBS and private CRE debt pricing.
  • Economic caution warranted: Slower consumption and GDP growth argue for conservative underwriting in sectors like retail and hospitality, particularly for assets and loans facing 2025–2026 refinancing cliffs.
You can download CREFC’s one-page MarketMetrics, which includes statistics covering the economy and the CRE debt capital markets, here.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

Contact 

Raj Aidasani
Managing Director, Research
646.884.7566
Data chart representing Economy, The Fed and Rates
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Economy, The Fed and Rates
July 1, 2025
May inflation slightly hotter.

News

Bank Capital Regulatory Update

July 1, 2025

Banking regulators are starting to move ahead with reframing U.S. bank capital standards. 

As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated during Congressional hearings last week: 

We're looking at basically two big pieces now: Basel III and the leverage ratio. I'm pretty confident we'll move on both of those in the relatively near future.
Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio
 
  • On June 25 and June 26, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), respectively, voted in open sessions to issue for comment proposed amendments to the enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (eSLR) applicable:
    • The proposal calls for replacing the current eSLR, which requires globally systemically important banks (GSIBs) to hold additional capital equal to 2% of their total exposures, with a new capital charge, equal to one-half of each bank's GSIB surcharge.
    • Comments are due August 26.
  • The joint banking agencies, including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), on June 27 officially requested comment on the proposal. One of the proposal’s key goals is to reduce disincentives for banks to engage in lower-risk activities, thereby encouraging the smoother functioning of U.S. Treasury markets.
  • Two Federal Reserve Board members, Adriana Kugler and Former Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr, voted against issuing the proposal, sharing their concerns about the potential impact on bank capital. According to Barr:
Enhancing the resilience of the U.S. Treasury market is an important objective that I share with my colleagues, but this proposal unnecessarily and significantly reduces bank-level capital by $210 billion for global systemically important banking organizations and weakens the eSLR as a backstop. I am skeptical that it will achieve the stated objective of improving the resiliency of the Treasury market.
Basel III Capital Requirements

Senior financial regulators
, including Powell and Fed Vice-Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman, have been sharing that developing a more capital-neutral framework for banks is a high priority. It appears likely that a new proposal would not use the proposal set forth under the Biden administration as a starting point.

In Congressional testimony
last week, as reported in American Banker, Powell said that the Biden administration’s Basel III endgame proposal set minimum capital requirements "well above" the international standard. "I would agree we're going to take a fresh start at that.”

On July 22
, the Federal Reserve will convene a conference on bank capital requirements, bringing together “a range of perspectives, including academics, practitioners, and market participants to discuss the key pillars of the regulatory capital framework.”

CREFC
will closely monitor discussions and developments related to bank capital requirements, particularly as they relate to the CRE finance markets. We will provide feedback on forthcoming proposals via comment letters and meetings with bank agency leadership.

Please contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) with any questions.

Contact 

Sairah Burki
Managing Director,
Head of Regulatory Affairs and Sustainability
703.201.4294
sburki@crefc.org
Inside of building with open windows
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Bank Capital Regulatory Update
July 1, 2025
Banking regulators are starting to move ahead with reframing U.S. bank capital standards.

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