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CRE Finance Council Announces Planned Retirement of President and CEO Lisa

March 19, 2026

NEW YORK, NY — March 19, 2026 —The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) today announced that President and Chief Executive Officer Lisa Pendergast has informed the organization’s Board of Governors of her intention to retire on or about August 3, 2026, following a decade of her leadership.

“Under Lisa’s exceptional leadership, CREFC has strengthened its role as the commercial real estate finance industry’s central forum for dialogue, advocacy, and market intelligence,” said Leland F. Bunch III, Managing Director at Bank of America and the Chair of CREFC’s Executive Committee and Board of Governors. “The Board has launched a thoughtful and thorough search process to ensure a seamless new CEO transition to continue CREFC’s success.”

Ms. Pendergast guided CREFC through a period of significant growth and industry evolution. During her tenure, the organization increased membership by more than 30 percent and firmly established itself as the leading industry voice representing the full spectrum of commercial and multifamily real estate finance participants.

Under Ms. Pendergast’s leadership, CREFC has enhanced its role as a trusted, nonpartisan resource for market participants, policymakers, and regulators. She has championed initiatives to improve market transparency, strengthen industry standards, and expand the organization’s research, education, and member engagement platforms, while fostering collaboration across lenders, investors, issuers, servicers, and other stakeholders. With more than 30 years of experience in commercial real estate capital markets, Ms. Pendergast is widely recognized for her deep market expertise and leadership. Prior to her CREFC role, she held senior positions at Jefferies, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Prudential Securities, and was consistently ranked as a top research analyst. She served as CREFC’s Chair in 2010–2011 and was a member of its Board of Governors for more than nine years.

“Leading CREFC has been one of the greatest honors of my career,” said Ms. Pendergast. “I am incredibly proud of what we have built together; a strong, collaborative organization that serves as the voice of the commercial real estate finance industry both in the markets and in Washington, D.C. I remain fully committed to CREFC and to ensuring a smooth and orderly transition.”   

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Bank Capital Proposals Unveiled

March 19, 2026

Today, the banking regulators issued the long-awaited bank capital proposals, with comments due 90 days after publication in the Federal Register.

CREFC and Mayer Brown will hold a webinar on March 25 at 3pm ET to cover the proposals’ key recommendations and our initial views on implications for CRE finance. Please click here to register.

The below two proposals were issued by all three agencies, the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC):

• Proposed revisions to the risk-based capital framework applicable to the largest, most internationally active firms and to firms with significant trading activity (Basel III proposal)
  
• Proposed regulatory capital and standardized approach for risk-weighted assets (standardized approach proposal)

The G-SIB Surcharge proposal was issued by the Fed:

• Proposed risk-based capital surcharges for Global Systemically Important Bank holding companies (GSIB surcharge proposal)

The accompanying Board Memo states that the:

• Basel III proposal would revise the risk-based capital requirements that apply to the largest, most internationally active firms (Category I and II firms) and simplify the framework by subjecting firms to a single set of risk-based capital calculations;
• GSIB surcharge proposal would improve the measurement of systemic risk in the framework which determines the surcharge that applies to the largest and most complex banks; and
• Standardized approach proposal would revise the U.S. standardized approach, which applies to most banks, to better align capital requirements with the risk of traditional lending activities.

The regulators estimate the following capital impacts:

• Aggregate common equity tier 1 capital requirements of Category I and II firms would decrease by 2.4% under the proposals (a 1.4% increase due to the Basel III proposal and a 3.8% decrease due to the GSIB surcharge proposal).
• The standardized approach proposal would decrease the aggregate common equity tier 1 capital requirements of Category III and IV firms by 3.0% and of smaller banking organizations by 7.8%

Initial, high-level takeaways for CRE:

• The standardized approach proposal recommends that risk weights for non-construction commercial real estate loans decrease from 100% to 95%. Table V.4: Impact on Risk-Weighted Assets on page 129-130 provides a summary of risk-weight impacts across assets.
  • Securitization risk-weights also would decline. Additionally, the proposal reduces the minimum risk weight for senior securitization positions from 20% in the current standardized approach to 15%.
  • The threshold-based deduction of mortgage servicing assets (MSAs) has been removed. All MSAs would receive a 250% risk weight under the proposal
• The Basel III proposal goes into significant detail on the treatment of CRE, including the definition of what constitutes regulatory commercial real estate exposures and accompanying risk-weights. 
  • It allows for more granular capital treatment than the standardized approach.
  • Unfortunately, one of CREFC’s concerns related to the 2023 proposal reappears in this proposal: although common mezzanine/SPE financing structures are economically equivalent to first lien lending, they continue to get penalized under a definition that requires a direct property security interest.

These proposals are the culmination of many years’ work to implement the 2017 international Basel agreement on bank capital requirements.

• In July 2023, the banking agencies jointly issued the notice of proposed rulemaking to implement the Basel III Endgame, which would have raised core equity Tier 1 capital for large and complex banks by 16%.
  • The banking industry fiercely opposed it, and it was never finalized.
  • The proposal also had negative implications for CRE finance, particularly given the onerous capital treatment of securitizations and warehouse lending. CREFC submitted a comment letter highlighting its concerns and led a joint letter from real estate industry groups. 
• In September 2024, then Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr announced a re-proposal attempt, but that effort stalled when President Trump took office and Barr stepped down. 

What’s next: As noted above, CREFC and Mayer Brown, who is serving as drafting counsel on our comment letter, will hold a webinar on March 25 at 3pm ET. 

Please contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) with questions or if you want to join the CREFC Bank Capital Working Group.

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Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

March 17, 2026

Economic Data & Labor Market

• The economy entered the Iran shock weaker than anyone thought two weeks ago. The BEA’s second estimate cut Q4 2025 growth to 0.7% annualized—half the initial 1.4% reading—while revising the GDP price index up to 3.8% from 3.6%. That is stagflation in one data point: growth halved, prices revised higher. Consumer spending contributed just 1.3 points (down from 2.3 in the prior quarter). The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model pegs Q1 2026 at 2.7%, buoyed by the government shutdown bounce-back and larger average tax refunds (up 10.6% YoY as of March 6). Watch: Bloomberg Economics estimates that if oil stays above $83/bbl for much of the year, it would offset the average household’s refund gains entirely.
• Core PCE stuck above 3%—even before the oil shock. January core PCE rose 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY, the highest annual reading in nearly two years. Services inflation hit 3.5%; a closely watched services-ex-energy-and-housing metric posted one of its strongest monthly gains in a year. Headline PCE was 2.8% YoY. CPI has moderated faster (2.4% in February), but the divergence reflects housing-weight differences and a shutdown-related statistical quirk. Wall Street expects February core PCE at around 3.0–3.1%, and those numbers, too, predate the war.
• The consumer is bending, not broken—but the cushion is thinner. Real consumer spending rose just 0.1% in January; the savings rate jumped to 4.5%, its largest monthly increase in a year. Corporate signals are more upbeat: BofA card data showed spending up 4.6% last week, and Visa and Mastercard executives described stable positive growth across income cohorts. But gasoline has surged from $2.94/gal a month ago to $3.63 after 13 straight days of increases, and lower-income households are disproportionately exposed. University of Michigan sentiment slipped to 55.5 in early March; the improvement visible before the conflict disappeared in interviews conducted after it began.

Federal Reserve Policy & the Warsh Nomination

• The Fed is paralyzed—and oil cements it. The FOMC meets March 17–18 and will hold at 3.50–3.75%. Futures markets have swung from pricing two cuts this year to, at most, one—with CME data showing a 38% probability of no cuts at all in 2026. The mechanism: oil above $100 pushes headline inflation higher, making it analytically impossible to ease while prices accelerate—even if the shock is theoretically “temporary.” The debate has shifted from “when do cuts resume” to “can the Fed cut at all this year.” EY-Parthenon’s Gregory Daco projects at most one cut (December); Morgan Stanley still calls for June and September, but acknowledges delay risk.
• Inflation psychology is the sleeper risk. An AEI analysis in the FT argues that the Fed should treat inflation expectations as fragile rather than anchored. After 2021–22, businesses developed what the author calls “muscle memory” for passing through costs—a behavior that was front of mind in a way it was not pre-pandemic. In April 2025, Michigan’s five-year inflation expectations spiked to 4.4% after the Liberation Day tariff announcements. Bond-market break-evens and professional forecasters remain calm, but household surveys are increasingly partisan and harder to read. If an oil-driven price spike convinces the public that inflation is re-accelerating, that belief can become self-fulfilling.
• Warsh’s path is stuck in a legal loop. A federal judge rejected DOJ subpoenas in the criminal investigation of Powell’s handling of the Fed’s headquarter renovations on March 13—but D.C. U.S. Attorney Pirro announced an immediate appeal. Senator Tillis (R-NC) has vowed to block Warsh until the investigation is scrapped; with a 13–11 GOP majority on the Banking Committee, a single defection could create an impasse. Powell’s chair term ends May 15; court filings suggest he may remain as a governor through 2028 if the succession drags.

Treasury Yields & Bond Markets

• Yields posted their sharpest two-week surge since Liberation Day. The 2-year closed at 3.72% on Friday (+16 bps w/w, +34 bps over two weeks—largest since October 2024). The 10-year settled at 4.28% (+14 bps w/w, +34 bps over two weeks—largest since April 2025). The 30-year hit 4.90% (+15 bps w/w), its third-highest close of 2026, just 19 bps off its 52-week peak of 5.09%. The 2s/10s spread compressed to ~55 bps from ~70 bps in early February as the market priced weaker growth and less accommodative policy simultaneously—a textbook stagflation signal.
• This was not a clean, safe-haven Treasury bid. Bonds initially rallied on weak GDP and spending data, but the rally faded as oil held above $100 and longer-maturity bonds underperformed. That is the key market message: inflation and energy risk are strong enough to blunt the usual bond rally you would expect from weaker growth data. Mortgage rates backed up to 6.11% as of March 12, after dipping below 6% in late February for the first time since 2022—reversing the first genuine affordability tailwind housing had seen in years.
• The fiscal premium in long-term yields is structural, not cyclical. Martha Gimbel of the Yale Budget Lab testified (March 12) that the deficit is projected at 5.8% of GDP this year, rising to 6.7% by 2036—despite sub-4.5% unemployment. Cumulative fiscal policy since 2015 has raised 10-year Treasury yields by ~97 bps, adding roughly $2,500/year to the cost of a median-priced mortgage. That premium does not go away with a ceasefire.

Dollar, Commodities & Market Dynamics

• Oil above $100 with no resolution in sight. Brent closed at $103/bbl on Friday (+11% w/w, ~+40% since the war began February 28), peaking near $120 on Monday. Goldman estimates Hormuz flows have collapsed to ~600,000 bbl/day from normal levels above 19 million; JPMorgan expects supply cuts to approach 12 million bbl/day by the end of next week. Countermeasures—record SPR releases, eased Russian sanctions—are buying time but not solving the shortage: 400 million barrels of global SPR covers roughly 29 days. Iran’s new supreme leader has vowed to keep the Strait closed.
• Dollar strengthens; stress gauges climb. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6% last week to its highest since December, reasserting the U.S.’ relative insulation as a net energy producer. Gold held near $5,019/oz, up ~70% YoY. A BofA cross-asset implied-volatility gauge jumped to 0.79, approaching the 0.89 Liberation Day peak. The S&P 500 fell for a third straight week (down ~5% from its January record), and the megacap gauge has dropped more than 10% from its all-time high.

CRE Finance Market Implications

• The rate relief that markets had been pricing into 2026 — two Fed cuts and a lower 10-year—has largely evaporated. The 10-year surged 34 bps over the last two weeks, pushing fixed-rate permanent financing costs higher. Floating-rate bridge borrowers fare no better: the near-complete repricing of 2026 rate cuts keeps SOFR-based coupons elevated. 
• Private credit stress is the second-order funding risk. Private credit funds and debt-focused alternative managers heavily intermediate bridge and construction lending in CRE. With Ares, Blackstone, and Blue Owl shares under heavy selling pressure—and redemption gates going up at BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Cliffwater—the availability and pricing of transitional CRE capital could tighten. This could occur not because of CRE fundamentals per se, but because of contagion from software-loan write-downs and the broader credibility crisis in the asset class. Development and value-add projects that depend on non-bank capital markets are most exposed.
• Oil, construction costs, and the consumer squeeze converge. Higher diesel prices raise shipping and materials costs for CRE development; disrupted Persian Gulf fertilizer flows and commodity supply chains add second-order input-cost pressure. Meanwhile, the consumer-spending slowdown (real spending +0.1% in January, gas prices up ~22% in two weeks) threatens rent growth in discretionary retail and hospitality. Grocery-anchored and essential-services retail remain better positioned. Industrial/logistics assets face mixed signals: higher transport costs are a headwind, but reshoring and e-commerce fulfillment needs provide structural demand.
• AI capex may pause if energy costs stay elevated. As former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane argued this week, AI is the most energy-intensive technology ever invented. A world of more expensive and uncertain energy risks is slowing the hyper-scaler buildout that has been a primary growth engine—and the key demand driver for data-center development. If the tech investment wave stalls, it removes one of the few forces supporting both economic growth and CRE demand in the industrial/data-center segment.

Sources: BEA, BLS, Federal Reserve, CME FedWatch, Tradeweb, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Yale Budget Lab, AAA, Freddie Mac, Fitch Ratings, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, RBC Capital Markets, Morgan Stanley, EY-Parthenon, Bank of America, TD Securities.

You can download CREFC's one-page MarketMetrics, which includes statistics covering the economy and the CRE debt capital markets, here.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

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