CRE Finance Council is a trade association that is...

  • Dedicated exclusively to the nearly $6 trillion commercial real estate finance industry
  • Committed to promoting strong & liquid debt markets across platforms
  • The meeting place for industry professionals
  • The platform for establishing best practices, industry standards & federal policy
  • Comprised of approximately 400 companies and 19,000 individual members
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NCREIF and CREFC Release Fourth Quarter 2024 Debt Fund Aggregate Report

April 17, 2025

We are pleased to provide you with the NCREIF/CREFC Open-End Debt Fund Aggregate Report for Fourth Quarter 2024. The full Membership Report is located in the CREFC Resource Center for CREFC Members only. This Snapshot Report is available to the public and also can be found on the CREFC website.

For any questions or suggestions and/or if you wish to become a debt fund contributor to the Aggregate, please contact Lisa Pendergast.


The NCREIF/CREFC Open-End Debt Fund Aggregate 
 
The NCREIF/CREFC Open-End Debt Fund Aggregate is a fund-level aggregate comprising open-end funds that provide credit and financing to commercial real estate owners. This report will be issued in a draft “consultation” format for at least one year to obtain the appropriate level of industry feedback before it is rolled out as an official NCREIF/CREFC product. 
 
About the NCREIF/CREFC Open-End Debt Fund Aggregate

  • Is a project by the industry for the industry that has been in the works for several years with input from NCREIF, CREFC and its members, and data contributing managers, investors, and consultants. 
  • Is anticipated to be published quarterly. Results will never reveal individual fund performance. 
  • Is NOT a BENCHMARK, yet, but is a major step toward the goal of creating a more focused index/benchmark of funds that meets certain investment inclusion criteria (which are to be determined)
  • Will enhance investors’ interest and understanding of the rewards and risks of private real estate debt funds, which may lead to increased allocations to debt, benefiting managers, investors, and commercial real estate finance industry professionals. 
  • Contains funds with various strategies and styles ranging from core to value-add, as reported by the managers. The performance metric is a time-weighted return. The returns are equally weighted across the funds since the aggregate contains a few large funds that would dominate the results if it they were value weighted. 

Aggregate Furthers CREFC’s and NCREIF’s Missions

About CREFC

  • CREFC is the trade association for the commercial real estate finance industry. Member firms include balance sheet and securitized lenders, loan and bond investors, private equity firms, servicers and rating agencies, among others. 
  • Our industry plays a critical role in the financing of office buildings, industrial and warehouse properties, multifamily housing, retail facilities, hotels, and other types of commercial real estate that help form the backbone of the American economy.
  • CREFC promotes liquidity, transparency, and efficiency in the commercial real estate finance markets. It does this by acting as a legislative and regulatory advocate for the industry, serving a vital role in setting market standards and best practices, providing education for market participants, and publishing the well tracked CREFC Board of Governors Sentiment Index. Our most recent collaborative effort is working with our friends at NCREIF to develop the NCREIF/CREFC Open End Debt Fund Aggregate.
  • CREFC hosts major industry conferences that bring together market participants from leading commercial real estate finance companies and organizations. Complementing these major conferences are regular After-Work Seminars and regional conferences held throughout the year on an annual basis

About NCREIF

  • NCREIF is the leading provider of investment performance indices and transparent data for US commercial properties. Data Contributor Members submit data to NCREIF for inclusion in its various indices and data products. NCREIF is a member-driven, not-for-profit association that improves private real estate investment industry knowledge by providing transparent and consistent data, performance measurement, analytics, standards, and education.
  • NCREIF serves the institutional real estate investment community as a non-partisan collector, validator, aggregator, converter and disseminator of commercial real estate performance and benchmarking information. Our members include investment managers, investors, consultants, appraisers, academics, researchers and other professionals in the real estate investment management industry.
  • NCREIF is a data service provider that meets its members' and the investment and academic community's need for high quality, transparent, timely and accurate commercial real estate data, performance measurement and benchmarking indices, investment analysis, reporting standards, research, education and peer group interaction 
NCREIF Debt Fund Aggregate Fund Inclusion

Investment Managers must:

  • Offer an open-end debt fund product to institutional investors that includes predominantly private U.S. commercial and multifamily real estate debt. Specifically, 80% of total assets must be invested in private commercial and multifamily debt real estate.
  • Calculate quarterly net asset values and returns on a market-value basis.
  • Agree to submit all requested data and do so within the time frame required.

Funds included have different: 

  • Structures, strategies, liquidity provisions, dividends, accounting, and valuation policies, all of which affect performance and comparability. As a result, this product is not a benchmark.  

Contact  

Lisa Pendergast
President & CEO
646.884.7570
lpendergast@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
NCREIF and CREFC Release Fourth Quarter 2024 Debt Fund Aggregate Report
April 17, 2025
We are pleased to provide you with the NCREIF/CREFC Open-End Debt Fund Aggregate Report for Fourth Quarter 2024.

News

Capital Markets Update Week of 4/15

April 15, 2025

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

Three transactions totaling $930 million priced last week:

  • WFCM 2025-DWHP, a $330 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Driftwood Capital to refinance nine hotels totaling 1,866 rooms in five states.
  • SDAL 2025-DAL, a $330 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Elliott Management and Chartres Lodging Group to refinance the Sheraton Dallas hotel in downtown Dallas.
  • BWAY 2025-1535, a $300 million SASB backed by a fixed-rate, five-year loan for Vornado Realty Trust to refinance a 106,481 sf purpose-built retail and theater condominium located in Times Square.

According to Commercial Mortgage Alert, prior to the above noted transactions, no new CMBS have hit the market since President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. The three transactions priced last week had been in mid-marketing when tariffs were first announced. According to CMA, “All printed at much wider-than-expected spreads.”

Issuance by the numbers: Year-to-date private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totals $47.4 billion, a 126% increase from the $21 billion recorded for same-period 2024. 

Spreads Trend Wider

  • Conduit AAA and A-S spreads were unchanged at +108 and +150. YTD, they have widened 33 bps and 45 bps, respectively.
  • Conduit AA spreads were unchanged at +220, while A spreads widened 25 bps to +275. YTD, they are wider by 130 bps and 160 bps, respectively.
  • Conduit BBB- spreads widened 50 bps to +625. YTD, they are wider by 200 bps.
  • SASB AAA spreads widened 20-23 bps to the +160 to +178 range, depending on property type. YTD, they have widened 53 to 68 bps.
  • CRE CLO AAA spreads widened 30 bps/25 bps (Static/Managed) to +180/+180, while BBB- spreads widened 105 bps/90 bps to +475/+475.

Agency CMBS

  • Agency issuance totaled $2.8 billion last week, comprising $1.3 billion of Freddie K and Multi-PC transactions, $1.3 billion of Fannie DUS, and $153.3 million of Ginnie Mae Project Loan transactions.
  • Agency issuance for the year totals $37.1 billion, 34% higher than the $27.6 billion for same-period 2024.

The Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

Economic Data and Outlook

  • Inflation Cooled Pre-Tariff, but the Future Looks Hotter: March CPI and PPI data showed unexpected cooling, with headline CPI falling 0.05% month-over-month and PPI dropping 0.4%, largely due to lower energy costs. Core CPI rose just 0.06%. However, this data precedes the full impact of recent tariff hikes. Economists widely expect tariffs to push inflation higher later this year; New York Fed President John Williams projected inflation could reach 3.5% to 4%. The timing remains uncertain, potentially delayed until June or later, as businesses likely stockpiled inventory (estimated at a two-month cushion) ahead of the tariffs. 
  • Signs of Consumer Strain Emerge: While some bank executives maintain that consumers remain resilient, warning signs are flashing. JPMorgan reported credit card loan charge-offs hitting a 13-year high in Q1, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Philadelphia Fed data showed the share of borrowers making only minimum payments reached a 12-year high at the end of 2024, with delinquencies also rising.
Moreover, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged in April to a roughly three-year low, citing "growing worries about trade war developments." Expectations for unemployment rose to the highest since 2009, and inflation expectations surged to multi-decade highs. Retail foot traffic data suggest a shift toward low-priced warehouse stores, possibly indicating stockpiling ahead of tariffs. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon noted credit quality hinges on employment, currently at 4.2%.

  • Growth Forecasts Dimmed, Recession Fears Rise: Economists anticipate a significant economic slowdown due to tariffs and related uncertainty. NY Fed's Williams expects GDP growth below 1% this year. JPMorgan pegs recession odds at 50/50, while BlackRock's Larry Fink stated the U.S. is "very close, if not in a recession now." Several economists forecast a recession as their base case if high tariffs persist. Goldman Sachs expects only 0.5% GDP growth this year.
  • Fiscal Concerns Loom: The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $1.307 trillion in the first half of fiscal 2025 (October-March), the second-largest on record for that period, partly driven by record interest payments on the national debt totaling $582 billion. Economists noted the link between large budget deficits and trade deficits, highlighting a contradiction in pursuing policies aimed at lowering the trade deficit, while potentially increasing the budget deficit (e.g., via tax cuts funded by uncertain tariff revenue).
  • Oil Market Impact: The U.S. shale revolution significantly reduced the U.S. trade deficit by turning the nation into a net oil exporter. However, current administration policies, including pressure on OPEC+ and the potential economic slowdown from tariffs, have pushed WTI crude prices towards $60/barrel. Analysts warn that prices below the average breakeven point for shale producers (estimated around $65/barrel) could curtail U.S. production, necessitate increased imports, and consequently widen the trade deficit again, undermining a key administration goal.
Federal Reserve Policy
 
  • Patient Stance Amid Uncertainty: Fed officials signaled a clear intention to remain patient and hold interest rates steady, ruling out preemptive "insurance" cuts against a potential tariff-induced slowdown. Chair Powell emphasized no need to hurry policy moves, while others like Cleveland Fed President Hammack stressed the importance of waiting to "move in the right direction." NY Fed President Williams called the current stance "entirely appropriate."
  • Navigating a Policy Dilemma: Officials acknowledged the conflicting pressures created by tariffs: rising inflation calls for tighter policy, while potential weakening growth and higher unemployment call for easing. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted the "hurdle to change the federal funds rate one way or the other has increased due to tariffs." St. Louis Fed President Musalem highlighted the "distinct possibility" of rising inflation alongside a softening labor market. Lawrence Summers described the situation as "standard emerging-market territory where a central bank is hamstrung."
  • Market Intervention Readiness: While bank executives suggested regulatory tweaks to aid market functioning, Fed officials like Boston Fed President Collins and Kashkari stated that while markets show stress, they are functioning adequately without liquidity concerns overall. However, Collins affirmed the Fed "would absolutely be prepared" to use its tools to intervene and stabilize markets if conditions became disorderly.
  • Rate Cut Outlook Dims: While futures markets still price in rate cuts this year, Fed commentary suggests a higher bar for easing. Several officials emphasized the need for more data and clarity on the economic trajectory before adjusting policy. Some economists now forecast only one rate cut late in the year, likely December.
Markets
 
  • ‘Not Normal’ Yield Surge: U.S. Treasury yields experienced unusually sharp increases despite broader market turmoil. The 10-year Treasury yield surged approximately 50 basis points over the week to end near 4.5%, its largest weekly rise since 2001. The 30-year yield jumped over 48 basis points to near 4.9%, its biggest weekly increase since 1987. This counterintuitive move, yields rising when haven demand should push them lower, was described by analysts as "not normal behavior."
  • Market Stability Questions: The erratic yield movements and signs of stress raised concerns about the stability and liquidity of the Treasury market, drawing comparisons to the pandemic-induced seizure in March 2020. Speculation centered on potential causes, including foreign capital flight driven by tariff policies and eroding confidence in U.S. assets, as well as the possible unwinding of leveraged hedge fund strategies like the Treasury basis trade.
  • Extreme Volatility, Weekly Gain: The S&P 500 experienced extreme volatility, including sharp declines and powerful rallies, ultimately notching its best weekly gain (+3.8%) since November 2023. However, the intra-week trading range rivaled the depths of the pandemic, described as a "roller coaster" driven by "emotionally charged" sentiment and tariff uncertainty. The VIX volatility index rose to levels last seen in March 2020.
  • Dollar Weakens Despite Risk-Off: The dollar fell sharply against major currencies, hitting a three-year low against the euro, contrary to its typical behavior of strengthening during global financial stress. This simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds fueled concerns about waning confidence in U.S. assets.
  • Haven Status Questioned: Fund managers warned that erratic policymaking, rising trade barriers, and threats to institutional stability (like Fed independence) are undermining the dollar's long-standing role as the world's primary safe haven and reserve currency. Bob Michele of JPMorgan Asset Management stated, "There is [now] a very good case for the end of American dollar exceptionalism." This potential shift could lead to higher U.S. borrowing costs and diminished global influence over time.
  • Gold Surges to Record Highs: Gold benefited significantly from the market turmoil, climbing over 6.5% to a record high of $3,237 per troy ounce, its largest weekly gain since the early pandemic stages in March 2020. Investors flocked to gold as confidence in traditional havens like U.S. Treasuries and the dollar wavered amid the tariff fallout. Analysts noted gold buying was motivated by fear and worries "about the system breaking."
You can download CREFC’s one-page MarketMetrics, which includes statistics covering the economy and the CRE debt capital markets, here
Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

 

Contact 

Raj Aidasani
Managing Director, Research
646.884.7566
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Capital Markets Update Week of 4/15
April 15, 2025
Three transactions totaling $930 million priced last week.

News

Department of Government Efficiency Progress and Future under Musk

April 15, 2025

In early 2025, the Trump administration launched the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with the stated goal of reducing federal bureaucracy and improving operational efficiency across government agencies. The effort is scheduled to wrap up by July 4, 2026, and set an ambitious goal of saving $2 trillion. 

Why it matters: DOGE is an initiative to streamlining federal operations and reducing government expenditures; rather than functioning as a standalone agency, DOGE operates by embedding specialized teams within existing federal agencies

  • Integration into existing agencies: DOGE deploys four-member teams—typically comprising a team lead, an engineer, a human resources specialist, and an attorney—into various federal agencies
  • Leadership and oversight: Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk was appointed to lead DOGE as a special adviser to President Trump; under his direction, DOGE has been granted authority to audit, restructure, and intervene in agency operations. Officially, Amy Gleason serves as the acting administrator, though Musk is the de facto head. 
  • Mandate and objectives: DOGE aims to "modernize Federal technology and software" for greater efficiency; this includes digitization, workforce optimization, and technology-driven service improvements.
By the numbers: Since its inception, DOGE has made sweeping changes across a variety of agencies.
 
  • Automation tools and algorithm-driven assessments were used to identify redundancies and consolidate roles, which has led to substantial backlash from employee unions, watchdog organizations, and members of Congress.
  • Thousands of federal employees—many probationary without civil service protections—have been laid off. The legality of these layoffs remains in limbo amid various court challenges. Agencies have also been directed to submit plans for a broader reduction in force. 
  • On its website, DOGE claims to have saved $150 billion already, including 676 lease terminations totaling ~$400M in savings. The total has been subject to debate, and Musk himself has speculated the cuts may not reach the $2 trillion goal.

Yes, but: The initiative has also faced internal friction. 

The future of DOGE remains unclear: It is uncertain whether the department will continue under new leadership after a Musk departure or undergo restructuring. 

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

Contact  

James Montfort
Manager,
Government Relations
202.448.0857
jmontfort@crefc.org
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) acronym references a popular meme featuring a dog. The meme has also been leveraged as a cryptocurrency.
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Department of Government Efficiency Progress and Future under Musk
April 15, 2025
In early 2025, the Trump administration launched the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with the stated goal of reducing federal bureaucracy and improving operational efficiency across government agencies.

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