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April 26, 2024

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CREFC's 1Q24 Sentiment Index Reveals Caution Amid Changing CRE Finance Landscape

April 25, 2024

NEW YORK, April 25, 2024 – The CRE Finance Council (CREFC), the industry association that exclusively represents the $5.9 trillion commercial and multifamily real estate finance industry, today released the results of its First-Quarter 2024 (1Q 2024) Board of Governors (BOG) Sentiment Index survey. Conducted between April 4, 2024, and April 15, 2024, the survey has consistently provided valuable insights into the sector since its inception in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The 1Q 2024 Index experienced a slight decline, dipping to 105.4, a 4% decrease from the previous quarter’s 109.9. This change points to notable shifts in the economic outlook, the impact of higher interest rates for longer, and cooling expectations around borrower demand for financing.

Key Highlights from the 1Q 2024 Core Questions

The survey’s core questions revealed significant insights:

• Economy: 61% of respondents expect the U.S. economy to perform the same over the next 12 months compared to the preceding 12 months, up from 31% last quarter. Only 24% anticipate better economic performance, down sharply from 54% in the preceding quarter.
• Rates: Opinions on the impact of mortgage and cap rates are mixed, with 31% expecting a positive impact and 37% foreseeing a negative one, marking a shift from the previous quarter's more optimistic 48%.
• CRE Fundamentals: Expectations for commercial real estate fundamentals are cautiously optimistic; 24% predict improvement over the next year, up from 15% in the previous quarter.
• Financing Demand: Although still positive, there is a noticeable cooling in expectations for borrower financing demand, with 69% anticipating increased demand, down from 88% in the prior quarter.
• Overall Sentiment: The industry's overall sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with 84% of responses being positive or neutral, an increase from 81% in the prior quarter.

Observations from Additional Topical Questions:

The additional questions in the 1Q 2024 Sentiment Index provided deeper insights into critical areas affecting the industry. Notably, the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate policies reveal a cautious outlook, with 12% of respondents expecting no rate cuts in 2024 and 80% predicting one to two cuts, highlighting preparedness for a persistent higher-rate environment. Asset class performance expectations continue to show strong confidence in the industrial sector, while signaling significant challenges for office.

Board members also expressed concerns about the "more uncertain economic outlook with stickier inflation" and the potential for AI to impact office demand. The dual-edged impact of sustained high interest rates is expected to challenge existing debt structures while potentially fostering refinancing and acquisitions. The potential influences of the upcoming elections and regulatory changes were noted as additional sources of uncertainty.

Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director of CREFC, emphasized the industry's resilient response, stating, "The 1Q 2024 survey results reflect a more tempered outlook amid continued economic uncertainty. While there is a notable shift toward a more cautious outlook, this is balanced by strategic adjustments across our industry. We are navigating these uncertain times with a focus on adapting to market realities and today’s regulatory environment."

For further details on the CREFC 1Q 2024 BOG Sentiment Index and to view the full report, please click here.

About CREFC’s Board of Governors Sentiment Index

The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) is the trade association for the commercial real estate finance industry. More than 400 companies and over 18,000 individuals are members of CREFC. CREFC’s members serve a critical role in the US economy by financing office buildings, industrial and warehouse properties, multifamily housing, retail facilities, hotels, and other types of commercial and multifamily real estate.

Nearly 60 senior executives in the commercial real estate finance markets represent CREFC’s Board of Governors and hail from every sector of the commercial real estate lending and mortgage-related debt investing markets. CREFC Governors include balance sheet and securitized lenders, loan and bond investors, mortgage bankers, private equity firms, loan servicers, rating agencies, attorneys, accountants, and others. CREFC’s Governors serve up to six years on CREFC’s Board and are all senior members in their firms and the industry.

CREFC’s BOG Sentiment Index aims to gauge quarter-to-quarter shifts in market conditions for the CRE finance market and the outlook for the future. The survey consists of nine core questions and additional topical questions (not factored into the BOG Index) and was first administered in 2017. The Sentiment Index equally weighs the responses to each question and then sums those weighted responses to create a single index.

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Raj Aidasani

raidasani@crefc.org

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CREFC's 1Q24 Sentiment Index Reveals Caution Amid Changing CRE Finance Landscape

April 25, 2024

New York, April 25, 2024 – The CRE Finance Council (CREFC), the industry association that exclusively represents the $5.9 trillion commercial and multifamily real estate finance industry, today released the results of its First-Quarter 2024 (1Q 2024) Board of Governors (BOG) Sentiment Index survey. Conducted between April 4, 2024, and April 15, 2024, the survey has consistently provided valuable insights into the sector since its inception in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The 1Q 2024 Index experienced a slight decline, dipping to 105.4, a 4% decrease from the previous quarter’s 109.9. This change points to notable shifts in the economic outlook, the impact of higher interest rates for longer, and cooling expectations around borrower demand for financing.

Key Highlights from the 1Q 2024 Core Questions

The survey’s core questions revealed significant insights:

• Economy: 61% of respondents expect the U.S. economy to perform the same over the next 12 months compared to the preceding 12 months, up from 31% last quarter. Only 24% anticipate better economic performance, down sharply from 54% in the preceding quarter.
• Rates: Opinions on the impact of mortgage and cap rates are mixed, with 31% expecting a positive impact and 37% foreseeing a negative one, marking a shift from the previous quarter's more optimistic 48%.
• CRE Fundamentals: Expectations for commercial real estate fundamentals are cautiously optimistic; 24% predict improvement over the next year, up from 15% in the previous quarter.
• Financing Demand: Although still positive, there is a noticeable cooling in expectations for borrower financing demand, with 69% anticipating increased demand, down from 88% in the prior quarter.
• Overall Sentiment: The industry's overall sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with 84% of responses being positive or neutral, an increase from 81% in the prior quarter.

Observations from Additional Topical Questions:

The additional questions in the 1Q24 Sentiment Index provided deeper insights into critical areas affecting the industry. Notably, the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate policies reveal a cautious outlook, with 12% of respondents expecting no rate cuts in 2024 and 80% predicting one to two cuts, highlighting preparedness for a persistent higher-rate environment. Asset class performance expectations continue to show strong confidence in the industrial sector, while signaling significant challenges for office.

Board members also expressed concerns about the "more uncertain economic outlook with stickier inflation" and the potential for AI to impact office demand. The dual-edged impact of sustained high interest rates is expected to challenge existing debt structures while potentially fostering refinancing and acquisitions. The potential influences of the upcoming elections and regulatory changes were noted as additional sources of uncertainty.

Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director of CREFC, emphasized the industry's resilient response, stating, "The 1Q 2024 survey results reflect a more tempered outlook amid continued economic uncertainty. While there is a notable shift toward a more cautious outlook, this is balanced by strategic adjustments across our industry. We are navigating these uncertain times with a focus on adapting to market realities and today’s regulatory environment."

For a summary of the results of the 1Q 2024 survey, please click here.

About CREFC’s Board of Governors Sentiment Index

The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) is the trade association for the commercial real estate finance industry. More than 400 companies and over 18,000 individuals are members of CREFC. CREFC’s members serve a critical role in the US economy by financing office buildings, industrial and warehouse properties, multifamily housing, retail facilities, hotels, and other types of commercial and multifamily real estate.

Nearly 60 senior executives in the commercial real estate finance markets represent CREFC’s Board of Governors and hail from every sector of the commercial real estate lending and mortgage-related debt investing markets. CREFC Governors include balance sheet and securitized lenders, loan and bond investors, mortgage bankers, private equity firms, loan servicers, rating agencies, attorneys, accountants, and others. CREFC’s Governors serve up to six years on CREFC’s Board and are all senior members in their firms and the industry.

CREFC’s BOG Sentiment Index aims to gauge quarter-to-quarter shifts in market conditions for the CRE finance market and the outlook for the future. The survey consists of nine core questions and additional topical questions (not factored into the BOG Index) and was first administered in 2017. The Sentiment Index equally weighs the responses to each question and then sums those weighted responses to create a single index.

Contact:

Aleksandrs Rozens

arozens@crefc.org

646-884-7567

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NY Renews Affordable Housing Tax Program; Other Housing Provisions

April 23, 2024

Last week, New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D) announced an agreement with the NY legislature on the FY 2025 budget, which will include a new tax incentive for affordable housing and extend the 421a tax credit for existing projects. The law also will introduce new tenant protections. The legislature passed Hochul’s agreement over the weekend.

• Click here for an analysis of the housing provisions from The Real Deal.

Why it matters: The 421a program, which provided tax exemptions for NYC multifamily construction projects with 30% of affordable units, expired in June 2022 amid criticism the program benefited developers and wealthy individuals.

• Rent Caps: The bill also included a watered-down version of “good cause eviction”, which can effectively limit rent increases. The legislation allows renters to challenge an eviction due to annual rent increases over 10% or 5% plus inflation (whichever is lower).
• Limited Scope: The good cause eviction automatically applies in NYC while other communities can opt in. The protections are limited to buildings constructed before 2009 and renters under a 245% area median income metric for affordability.
• Office Conversions: The law will allow NYC to rezone buildings and teak the residential floor area ratio (FAR) above 12 times the lot size, though the changes come with limitations and some affordability requirements.

The big picture: Click here for a New York Times story on the recent history of the tax incentive. The topline housing items touted by Hochul include:

• A landmark plan to build more housing in New York City, including establishing the new 485-x tax incentive to construct affordable housing, extending the 421-a tax incentive for six years for projects already in the pipeline, changing the outdated 12 FAR density cap, creating incentives to convert unused office space into affordable housing.
• New initiatives to spur housing creation statewide, including a new 421-p tax incentive to construct housing outside NYC, mandating that $650 million in discretionary funding goes to Pro-Housing Communities, allocating $500 million to build up to 15,000 new homes on state land, and incentives for Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs).
• Historic protections for tenants and homeowners, including anti-price gouging measures for renters, stronger protections from evictions, new enforcement and preventative measures to protect homeowners from deed theft, and reinforcement of the law that squatters are not tenants.
• More than $600 million in capital funding to support housing statewide.
• Combating housing discrimination against Section 8 voucher recipients and affordable housing providers.

Go deeper: Hochul has been working to revive the incentive and deferred to the real estate industry, city officials, and unions on how to structure the new program, known as 485x. According to The Real Deal, the 485x program:

• Provides a 40-year exemption on taxes, up from 35 years, and requires income-restricted units remain permanently affordable;
• Includes wage requirements for 100+ unit projects; and
• Affordability requirements depending on the size of the building.

The program expires in June 2034.

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions. 

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Capital Markets Update Week of 4/21

April 23, 2024

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

In a busy week, four private-label transactions priced, including the first CRE CLO since February:

• BANK5 2024-5YR6, a $984.3 million conduit backed by 46 five-year loans secured by 54 properties. Retail (49.7%) comprises the largest property concentration, followed by hotel (16.7%) and multifamily (13.8%).
• SDR 2024-DSNY, $735 million SASB backed by two cross-collateralized, five-year loans (at full extension) for Tishman Hotel & Realty and MetLife on the leasehold interest in the 2,619-room Walt Disney World Swan & Dolphin Resort complex
• AREIT 2024-CRE9, a $678.4 million static CRE CLO backed by five whole loans and 10 loan participations on 22 properties in 11 states. Multifamily (51.1%) comprises the largest property type concentration, followed by industrial (24%) and mixed-use (13.4%).
• DATA 2024-CTR2, a $185 million SASB backed by a 10-year fixed-rate loan for Digital Realty Trust’s recapitalization of a 328,000 sf data center outside Chicago

According to Commercial Mortgage Alert, a $862.9 million five-year conduit offering is in the market and expected to be priced this week, along with a $1.3 billion SASB transaction. Year-to-date private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totals $23.6 billion, well ahead of the $8.9 billion for the same-period 2023.

Spreads Mixed

• Conduit AAA and A-S spreads were wider by 5 and 10 bps to +97 and +140, respectively. YTD, AAA and A-S spreads are tighter by 19 bps and 25 bps, respectively.
• Conduit AA and A spreads were unchanged at +150 and +250, respectively. YTD, they have tightened by 75 bps and 125 bps, respectively. ­
• Conduit BBB- remained at +675. YTD, BBB- spreads have tightened by 225 bps.
• SASB AAA spreads were wider by 8 bps, ranging from +145 to +162, depending on property type. They have narrowed from +160 to +188 at the start of the year.
• CRE CLO AAA spreads held at +160/165 (Static/Managed), and BBB- spreads at +650 (Static / Managed). For the year, spreads are tighter by 40 / 35 bps and 50 bps, respectively.

Agency CMBS - By the Numbers

Agency issuance totaled $1.8 billion last week, consisting of:

• $826.6 million in Fannie DUS,
• $716.9 million in Freddie-K and Multi-PC transactions, and
• $238.8 million in Ginnie transactions.

Agency issuance for the year is $29.1 billion, 13% lower than the $33.5 billion for the same period last year.

The Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

Economic Data

• Initial jobless claims held steady at 212,000 for the week ending April 13, indicating ongoing labor market strength despite high interest rates, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts.
• Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, were also little changed at 1.81 million in the week ended April 6.

Fed Policy

• Fed Chair Jay Powell and other officials signaled a potential prolonging of high interest rates due to recent disappointing inflation data. Powell cemented that message last week when he said it would likely take “longer than expected” to gain the confidence needed to lower rates, dashing hopes for more than two cuts in 2024.
• The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is projected to remain elevated in March, according to data due this week. The measure is seen accelerating slightly to 2.6% on an annual basis as energy costs rise.
• Other data for the week include the government’s initial estimate of first-quarter GDP, which probably cooled from the prior period’s robust pace but still exceeded what policymakers deem sustainable in the long run.

Market Sentiment

• A Bloomberg article last week highlighted a radical theory spreading on Wall Street to explain the economy’s continued strength despite higher interest rates. What if all the interest rate hikes over the last two years are actually boosting the economy?
• The theory suggests that increased income from savings and bonds due to higher rates could be boosting consumer spending and corporate profitability, countering the traditional view that rate hikes slow economic expansion.

Treasury Yields

• Treasury yields have climbed in recent weeks amid the disappointing inflation data. The 10-year yield reached its highest level of the year last week at 4.67%, following Powell’s comments conveying a lack of urgency to adjust rates. The 10-year T-note yield ended the week at 4.62%, up 10 bps from the prior week, while the 2-year yield ended the week at 4.99%, up 9 bps from the preceding week. The curve clearly remains inverted.
• According to an article by ING Bank NV, a revival in the so-called term premium in Treasuries would pave the way for the benchmark 10-year yield to return to the key 5% level. The term premium is typically described as the extra yield investors demand to own longer-term debt instead of rolling over shorter-term securities as they mature. “Currently there is virtually none,” noted the article.

You can download CREFC’s one-page MarketMetrics with statistics covering the economy and the CRE debt capital markets here.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Presidential Election: RFK Jr. - A Spoiler?

April 23, 2024

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been drawing outsize attention in his campaign, as he seeks to follow in the footsteps of his father Robert F. Kennedy and uncle, John F. Kennedy.

Why it matters: RFK Jr. is unlikely to win any individual state but could be a spoiler for Trump or Biden in November, as he is averaging 7.9% in polls.

• Kennedy has been running for president since April 19, 2023, though he initially challenged President Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination. This past October he changed course and announced he was running as an independent.
• On March 26, 2024, Kennedy announced his running mate, Nicole Shanahan. For her background click here, for RFK Jr’s biography click here.

By the numbers: Is RFK Jr. drawing more votes from Trump or Biden? The answer is unclear, but a few polls have tried to gauge Kennedy’s strength in key swing states.

In polling done by The Wall Street Journal, Kennedy received varying levels of support in swing states. In the crucial states of Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, he received 12%, 13%, and 15% of the vote, respectively.

Later in the poll, voters were asked to choose from a list of candidates that did not include Kennedy and then to choose again from a list to which Kennedy had been added. For the full poll, please click here.

• Trump lost a higher percentage of voters to Kennedy than did Biden in five of the seven swing states polled. But in most cases, that difference was around 1%, within margins of error.
• Historically, third-party candidates tend to do worse than their polling suggests. As voters consider the likely outcome of the election, the allure of an outsider candidacy tends to wane.

Other data points demonstrate that RFK’s campaign draws from Biden voters.

• In the polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, Trump leads Biden in a one-on-one match-up by a negligible margin: roughly half a percentage point. But the former president has a 2-point advantage over Biden when Kennedy is listed as an option.

Where Is RFK Jr. on the ballot? RFK Jr. claims he is on the ballot in all of the states noted below. Yet, not all of those states have confirmed.

Ballot eligibility varies from state-to-state:

• RFK Jr’s campaign claims that he is on the ballot in Utah, Hawaii, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, and Idaho.
• Only Michigan and Utah state officials have publicly confirmed he is on their ballots.
• The 2020 winning margins in Nevada, North Carolina, and Michigan were under 3% in 2020.

What’s next: Both campaigns have taken note of Kennedy’s candidacy, with the Biden campaign recently holding an event in which other members of the Kennedy family endorsed Biden instead of their relative.

• However, third-party candidates’ influence tends to peak before the party nominating conventions in the summer and then wanes as election day grows closer.
• These next few months could very well be Kennedy’s high-water mark. Click here for a deeper dive on the history of third-party voting.

Contact James Montfort (Jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Senate Banking Hearing with FHFA Director

April 23, 2024

On April 18, the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing with leaders of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

Why it matters: Housing is a key priority for Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and the Biden Administration has been seeking to implement a number of housing policy priorities via FHFA and HUD. Witnesses included:

• FHFA Director Sandra Thompson
• Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman

What they’re saying: Senators focused on a number of cost drivers and barriers to housing affordability both on the single family and multifamily side, and many senators questioned both witnesses on detailed policy issues. Key takeaways for CREFC members include:

Insurance Cost and Availability: Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) specifically asked Thompson about FHFA not receiving notice when insurers withdraw from a market.

• Thompson responded that FHFA is working with the mortgage and insurance industry, and Butler urged both regulators to work on a framework to protect consumers when insurers withdraw.

Institutional Investors in Homes: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) focused his questions on “…large institutional investors and Wall Street private equity firms from outside Georgia [effectively] boxing first-time, first-generation home buyers out of the housing market….”

• Thompson responded that the GSEs do not engage with institutional investors for single-family rental and have limits on how many properties individuals can own.
• Thompson also emphasized that GSE real estate owned (REO) properties have a 30-day “first look” period that limits bidders to owner-occupied, Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs), or nonprofits. Institutional investors are not able to purchase during that period.
• Chairman Brown used his opening remarks to call single-family rental “predatory” and highlighted his Stop Predatory Investment Act (S.2224), which would eliminate tax breaks for institutional investors who buy single-family homes.

Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB): Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) highlighted her concerns with the FHLB program, including dividends to member institutions, FHLB liquidity to failed banks, and a lack of investment in affordable housing programs.

Conservatorship Exit: Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) was the sole senator to bring up the GSE conservatorship. Hagerty urged Thompson to work with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and “continue the work that was begun by former FHFA Director Calabria to raise private capital and return Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private markets.”

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions. 

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Banking Chairman Open to Pairing Cannabis Bill with Stablecoin Bill

April 23, 2024

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-OH) suggested in an interview last week that he is open to advancing cannabis banking legislation (Safer Banking Act), a Stablecoin bill, and legislation to claw back bank executive compensation from failed institutions.

Why it matters: The Safer Banking Act would create a federal safe harbor for banks and insurance companies that service state and local authorized cannabis businesses.

• Last September, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation in a bipartisan markup, but the full Senate has yet to act.
• The House has passed similar cannabis banking legislation numerous times by wide margins in the past several years, though the GOP majority has declined to take up legislation this Congress.

What they’re saying: Brown’s suggestion pairs the cannabis bill with stablecoin, a key priority of House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry (R-NC). McHenry opted not to run for re-election and will retire from Congress in January 2025.

• McHenry and Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-CA) are reportedly close to striking a deal on a House stablecoin bill.
• As reported in Politico, McHenry recently met with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) about advancing stablecoin in the Senate.

Chairman Brown also mentioned the bipartisan RECOUP Act, which is a bipartisan legislative response to the 2023 regional bank failures.

• Among other things, the bill establishes the authority to recover from senior executive bonus compensation and profits from the sale of securities received during the 24-month period preceding an institution’s failure.
• The bill passed out of the Senate Banking Committee on a 21-2 vote in June 2023, but the House Financial Services Committee has not shown interest in taking up the issue.

Our thought bubble: The package deal could be one path forward for Safer Banking, though even pairing the three initiatives may not be enough for Schumer to use precious Senate floor time.

• If Brown and McHenry come to an agreement, the bills, alone or as a package, could more easily hitch a ride on a must-pass bill, e.g., NDAA, FAA, or government funding legislation.
• But a grand bargain on must-pass legislation will require buy-in from Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, who previously axed cannabis banking legislation from a 2022 year-end bill.
• McConnel generally is opposed to efforts aimed at easing cannabis restrictions, but with his tenure as GOP leader drawing to a close, he may demure on post-election bargain.

The bottom line: There continue to be many political and policy obstacles to enacting the Safer Banking Act. Action ahead of the election is less likely, but the chatter now could help the measure advance in the November and December lame duck session.

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions. 

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House Hearing on SEC Climate Rule

April 16, 2024

The House Financial Services Committee (HFSC) held a hearing on April 10 titled “Beyond Scope: How the SEC’s Climate Rule Threatens American Markets.”

Why it matters: This climate regulation hearing is the latest salvo from conservative lawmakers against the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC’s) climate disclosure rule.

• Committee Republicans described the rule as SEC overreach, arguing that it deviates from the materiality standard and could potentially harm businesses by mandating costly and burdensome disclosures.
• Democrats stated that climate risk is undeniably material and is necessary to protect investors.

Lawmakers also discussed the exclusion of Scope 3 (related to an organization’s value chain) emissions disclosure requirements from the final rule.

As covered in previous CREFC Policy and Capital Markets Briefings, at least nine lawsuits have been filed against the SEC’s climate disclosure rule and consolidated in the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals pending litigation.

On April 4, the SEC issued a stay on the rule to avoid regulatory uncertainty if registrants “were to become subject to the Final Rules’ requirements during the pendency of the challenges to their validity.”

Unfortunately, attempting to reduce regulatory uncertainty is likely impossible at this point, regardless of what transpires with the SEC rule.

• In the two years since the SEC issued the proposal, California passed more stringent climate disclosure laws, with related regulations likely proposed in the coming year.
• Additionally, U.S. organizations that do business in Europe also have tougher standards with which to comply. For example, under the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, U.S.-headquartered companies doing business with EU companies may have to include Scope 3 emissions reporting.
• Finally, the International Sustainability Standards Board’s (ISSB’s) extensive climate disclosure requirements are being adopted by more and more countries.

CREFC will continue to monitor regulatory and legislative developments related to climate regulation.

Please contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) with any questions. 

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