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CRE Finance Council to Host Annual Conference in New York This June

May 14, 2026

Industry conference features Colin Jost, Spencer Levy, Julie Ingersoll, and Allie K. Miller as keynote speakers

NEW YORK, NY — May 14, 2026 — The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) will bring together once again the commercial real estate finance industry’s foremost leaders at its Annual Conference, taking place June 8–10, 2026, in New York City. Widely recognized as the largest gathering of senior CRE finance leaders, the event features three days of timely market insights, high-value networking, and forward-looking discussion.

As the recognized voice of the commercial real estate finance industry, CREFC represents lenders, investors, servicers, issuers, and the full range of professionals powering the commercial real estate debt markets. CREFC plays a vital role in shaping industry standards, delivering trusted research and data, providing education, and advocating for policy and regulatory issues critical to market participants and the industry.

CREFC’s Annual Conference provides an opportunity for candid, real-time dialogue among industry leaders. Attendees will gain perspective from senior executives whose experience spans multiple market cycles, offering clarity on the forces shaping commercial real estate assets and the commercial real estate debt markets.

“CREFC’s Annual Conference comes at a pivotal moment for commercial real estate finance,” said Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of CREFC. “This is where the industry comes together to exchange insights and better understand how evolving market dynamics are influencing CRE investment, lending, and servicing strategies. There is simply no substitute for being in the room.”

In addition to CREFC’s seven industry-sector forum sessions, the conference will feature a robust lineup of sessions addressing the most pressing issues facing the industry, including:

  • In the Thick of It: Downstream Impact on the Servicer Playbook
  • Borrower Perspectives: CRE Market Realities and Opportunities
  • Disrupting the Debt Market: Private Credit’s Expanding Role in CRE
  • Modernizing Securitization: Key Developments to Watch
  • Government Impact on the Business of CRE and Its Asset Classes
  • Industry Leaders Roundtable

The program will also feature four high-profile keynote speakers offering distinct perspectives on leadership, innovation, markets, and change.

  • Colin Jost, co-anchor of Saturday Night Live’s “Weekend Update” and host of Netflix’s new season of Pop Culture Jeopardy!, will deliver a keynote session blending humor, storytelling, and audience engagement. A longtime SNL writer and performer, Jost brings a unique lens on culture, communication, and current events shaped by his career in comedy and media.
  • Spencer Levy, Global Client Strategist and Senior Economic Advisor for CBRE, and Julie Ingersoll, Chief Investment Officer, Americas Direct for CBRE Investment Management, will open the conference with a keynote on the state of the market. Levy and Ingersoll will share perspectives on transaction volumes, cap rate movements, and where opportunities are emerging amid today’s complex financing landscape.
  • Allie K. Miller, CEO of Open Machine and a leading AI advisor to Fortune 500 companies, will present a keynote focused on the transformative impact of artificial intelligence across industries. Her session will provide a practical AI-first playbook, helping organizations move from experimentation to meaningful implementation across strategy, operations, and decision-making.

Pendergast added, “From the continued evolution of private credit to the role of technology and policy in shaping our markets, this year’s program reflects the full breadth of issues influencing the commercial real estate finance industry. CREFC has always been defined by the strength and engagement of its members, and this event reflects that spirit.”

In addition to its programming, the Annual Conference will recognize outstanding contributions to the industry and the association made by CREFC members. CREFC will present its Founders, Woman of Distinction, and ‘20 Under 40’ awards, celebrating leadership, innovation, and the next generation of talent in commercial real estate finance. The organization will also announce its new Board leadership, including members of its Executive Committee and Board.

Event Details:
When: June 8-10, 2025

Where: New York Marriott Marquis |1535 Broadway |New York, NY 10036

Program:

 

Contact:
Mary Beth Ryan
Senior Director, Communications
646-884-7567
mryan@crefc.org

Contact  

Mary Beth Ryan
Senior Director,
Communications
646.884.7567
mryan@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CRE Finance Council to Host Annual Conference in New York This June
May 14, 2026
The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) will bring together once again the commercial real estate finance industry’s foremost leaders at its Annual Conference, taking place June 8–10, 2026, in New York City.

News

Statement from CREFC President & CEO Lisa Pendergast Regarding Kevin Warsh’s Confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair

May 13, 2026

NEW YORK, NY — May 13, 2026 — The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) issued the following statement from Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO, on the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve:

“CREFC congratulates Kevin Warsh on his confirmation to lead the Federal Reserve. Chair Warsh brings valuable perspective at a critical moment for the U.S. economy. We look forward to working with him and policymakers to advance policies that promote a resilient and healthy commercial real estate finance system. 

Strong, transparent leadership at the Fed is essential to maintaining market stability and supporting economic growth. Federal Reserve policy has a significant and direct impact on commercial real estate finance, influencing interest rates, liquidity, prudential standards for lenders, and the availability of capital across CRE lending and securitization markets.”

About CREFC
The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) is the trade association for the over $6 trillion commercial real estate finance industry with a membership that includes more than 400 companies and 19,000 individuals. Member firms include balance sheet and securitized lenders, loan and bond investors, private equity firms, servicers, rating agencies, and borrowers. For over 30 years, CREFC has promoted liquidity, transparency, and efficiency in the commercial real estate finance markets, and acted as a legislative and regulatory advocate for the industry, playing a vital role in setting market standards and best practices, and providing education for market participants. For more information, visit www.crefc.org.

 

Contact:
Mary Beth Ryan
Senior Director, Communications
646-884-7567
mryan@crefc.org

 


 

Contact 

Mary Beth Ryan
Senior Director,
Communications
646.884.7567
mryan@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC President & CEO Lisa Pendergast on Kevin Warsh’s Confirmation
May 13, 2026
The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) issued the following statement from Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO, on the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve:

News

CRE Securitized Debt Update

May 12, 2026

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

Five transactions totaling $5.5 billion priced last week:

  1. NYC 2026-9W57, a $1.8 billion SASB backed by a fixed-rate, five-year, interest-only loan for Soloviev Group to refinance 9 West 57th Street, the 1.72 million sf, 50-story Class A office tower in Manhattan’s Plaza District. The property, also known as the Solow Building, is 92% leased to more than 30 tenants with an eight-year WALT, led by Apollo Global Management, Chanel, Sculptor Capital Management, Davidson Kempner, and Veritas Capital. Loan proceeds will retire an existing $1.2 billion CMBS loan, fund reserves and closing costs, and return roughly $518 million to the sponsor.
  2. BX 2026-CIP, a $1.3 billion SASB backed by a floating-rate, interest-only loan for Blackstone to refinance 83 industrial properties totaling 12.97 million sf across 15 states. The loan has a two-year initial term plus three one-year extension options. The Link Logistics-managed portfolio comprises 37 warehouses, 35 light-industrial properties, and 11 bulk warehouses across 28 markets, led by Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Columbus, OH. The portfolio is 90.2% leased to roughly 150 tenants with a 3.8-year WALT; proceeds plus $183 million of sponsor equity will retire the $1.45 billion balance of the existing BX 2021-CIP CMBS loan and cover closing costs.
  3. VMC 2026-FL6, a $1.015 billion managed CRE CLO sponsored by Värde Partners through its VMC Lender platform. The initial collateral pool consists of two whole loans and 16 loan participations secured by 40 properties across 16 states, with top property concentrations in multifamily (56.5%), hotel (19.0%), industrial (9.9%), self-storage (8.0%), medical office (4.5%), and retail (2.1%). On a weighted-average basis, the loans carry a SOFR + 335 bp spread, eight months of seasoning, and 30 months of remaining term, or 53 months including extension options. The transaction includes a 30-month reinvestment period.
  4. BMARK 2026-V22, a $750.2 million conduit backed by 32 five-year loans secured by 145 properties. Fitch classifies the pool’s largest property-type exposures as hotel (25.2%), office (22.2%), multifamily (16.2%), self-storage (15.8%), and industrial (13.3%), reflecting its modeling treatment of certain leased-fee and mixed-use collateral. The top five loans are Mountain Industrial Portfolio, Compass Storage National Portfolio, Pinnacle Tower, Chateau Marmont, and Harris Building, together representing 43.5% of the pool; the top 10 represent 68.1%.
  5. WFCM 2026-5C9, a $619.9 million conduit backed by 29 five-year loans secured by 138 properties. The pool’s largest property-type exposures are retail (22.9%), multifamily (20.3%), industrial (14.9%), office (12.5%), and mixed-use (11.6%); top states are California (23.9%), New York (15.2%), Maryland (9.4%), Indiana (9.1%), and Arkansas (6.5%). The top five loans are Mall at Prince George’s, City Center on 6th, 535 & 545 5th Avenue, Sunshine Lake MHC Portfolio, and Marriott Indianapolis North, together representing 39.9% of the pool; the top 10 represent 64.2%.

By the numbers: YTD 2026 private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totaled $69.1 billion, up 29% from the $53.5 billion for the same period last year.

Spreads Continue to Tighten

  • Conduit AAA spreads were tighter by 5 bps to +70, while A-S spreads were tighter by 10 bps to +100.
  • Conduit AA and A spreads were unchanged at +130 and +175, respectively.
  • Conduit BBB- spreads were unchanged at +415.
  • SASB AAA spreads were unchanged in a range of +93 to +130, depending on property type.
  • CRE CLO AAA spreads were tighter by 5 bps to +140/+145 (static/managed), while BBB- spreads were tighter by 10 bps to +315/+340 (static/managed).

Agency CMBS

  • Agency issuance totaled $4.2 billion, comprising $3.3 billion in Freddie Multi-PC and K transactions, $550 million in Fannie DUS, and $352 million in Ginnie transactions.
  • Agency issuance for YTD 2026 totaled $64.9 billion, 38% higher than the $47.1 billion recorded for the same period in 2025.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

    Contact 

    Raj Aidasani
    Managing Director, Research
    646.884.7566
    The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
    CRE Securitized Debt Update
    May 12, 2026
    Five transactions totaling $5.5 billion priced last week.

    News

    Introducing Spotlight on Servicing: Understanding CMBS Appraisal Reductions

    May 12, 2026

    CREFC is pleased to share the release of Understanding CMBS Appraisal Reductions as the first report in a new Spotlight on Servicing educational series focused on the servicing business.

    Appraisal Reductions are a fundamental component of CMBS servicing, with direct implications for cash flow, bond performance, and investor control. The concept was created to limit the amount of servicer advancing that might not ultimately be recovered at disposition after a loan default.

    Understanding appraisal reductions is essential to interpreting CMBS deal performance across the capital stack, particularly in periods of asset stress.  Our recently published Spotlight on Servicing is an entry level discussion that highlights the mechanics of Appraisal Reductions, including typical trigger events.

    Additionally, a sample Appraisal Reduction Amount (ARA) calculation is provided, and the concept of Appraisal Subordinate Entitlement Reduction (ASER) is introduced.  Because an ASER will decrease the proportion of the monthly payment to be advanced on the loan, the potential impact of the effect on bondholder payments and bond ratings is discussed.

    Download report here.

    Contact Rich Carlson (rcarlson@crefc.org) with any questions.

    Contact  

    Rich Carlson
    Senior Director, Servicing Liaison
    CRE Finance Council
    rcarlson@crefc.org
    The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
    Introducing Spotlight on Servicing: Understanding CMBS Appraisal Reductions
    May 12, 2026
    CREFC is pleased to share the release of Understanding CMBS Appraisal Reductions as the first report in a new Spotlight on Servicing educational series focused on the servicing business.

    News

    Private Credit on Regulatory Radar

    May 12, 2026

    Authorities are seeking better visibility into the private credit markets, now estimated at $1.5 to $2 trillion, particularly where life insurers are involved. Private credit is generally defined as loans originated by nonbanks and negotiated on a bilateral basis between borrowers and lenders.

    Why it matters: Private credit has become a meaningful source of financing for mid-sized companies and, increasingly, larger borrowers and AI infrastructure projects. Regulators and policymakers are assessing whether insurers' shift toward private credit introduces opaque risks that could affect policyholders or trigger rapid asset sales.

    Driving the news

    • The FSB: The global body coordinating financial regulation released a report on May 6 examining the private-credit ecosystem, bank interlinkages, borrower credit quality, and data gaps. The report notes that the sector can support economic activity by offering alternative credit solutions to borrowers, but remains untested to a prolonged economic downturn.
    • Treasury: On May 7, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with state insurance commissioners and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) to discuss recent developments in private credit markets.
    • Federal Reserve: On May 8, the U.S. central bank released its biannual Financial Stability Report. It noted strong household balance sheets and well-capitalized banks. However, “a wide range of market contacts who participated in the Survey of Salient Risks in March and April most frequently cited geopolitical risks, oil shocks, risks from artificial intelligence (AI), private credit, and persistent inflation.”
      • The report added the following new sections: “Updates in the Classification of Nonbank Financial Institutions” and “Developments in Private Credit.”
      • Survey respondents viewed private credit as:

    Facing increasing pressure from investor redemptions, worsening sentiment, and AI-driven disruption affecting the credit quality of some borrowers, which could result in a tightening of credit conditions that could spill over into broader credit markets.

    Market Size and Composition

    • The FSB estimates the global private-credit market to be $1.5 trillion –$2 trillion as of year-end 2024, with the United States having the largest market, with an estimated size of around $1 trillion. 
      • Bank exposure to private credit funds is a relatively small share of banks' total assets and capital, with member data capturing about $220 billion in drawn and undrawn credit lines. However, other estimates suggest the amounts could be more than twice as large.
      • Private equity-backed insurers in the U.S. now control nearly $900 billion in insurance liabilities, a significant rise from $67 billion in 2012.
    • Private credit’s growth, according to the FSB, has been driven by the increased demand for high-yield and tailored credit due to:
      • Prolonged low-interest rate environment;
      • Changes in post-crisis bank regulation; and 
      • Expansion of private equity.

    Regulators are focused increasingly on transparency, particularly as it relates to private credit in the insurance sector. 

    • The FSB found that borrowers that are predominantly in private credit typically lack public ratings, and that valuations are often conducted less frequently and may involve significant discretion. 
    • According to American Banker, Secretary Bessent said Treasury is monitoring the growing exposure of insurers to private credit to ensure that state-based oversight remains effective. 
    • State regulators also shared their efforts to monitor private credit and protect policyholders. Elizabeth Dwyer, director of Rhode Island's Department of Business Regulation Director and NAIC president-elect, stated in a press release:
    State insurance regulators are leveraging effective oversight and enhancing risk-mitigation frameworks to promote stable markets and deliver strong outcomes for consumers.

    What's next 

    • The FSB outlined four follow-up work areas:
      • Continuing to assess vulnerabilities related to interlinkages between a range of nonbanks within the private finance ecosystem;
      • Mapping the components of the complex and evolving ecosystem;
      • Facilitating supervisory discussions to enhance authorities’ ability to assess and supervise vulnerabilities and risks; and 
      • Addressing data challenges that make it difficult to monitor vulnerabilities. 
    • On the insurance side, NAIC adopted a challenge process to so-called private letter ratings, which are confidential credit opinions issued by rating agencies for privately-placed securities. 
      • According to American Banker, this challenge process is the culmination of a multi-year effort that would allow the NAIC to challenge any rating. 
      • NAIC has a team of 30 analysts that review individual transactions to ensure compliance with regulatory standards. No rating challenges have been processed to date. 
      • A rating challenge would have to be a "material," requiring a three-notch downgrade or more for regulators to determine if a rating needs to be changed.
    The bottom line: Private credit has expanded into a significant corner of the financial system, and regulators are working to catch up on data and definitions. 

     

    Please contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) with questions.

    Contact 

    Sairah Burki
    Managing Director,
    Head of Regulatory Affairs
    703.201.4294
    sburki@crefc.org
    The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
    Private Credit on Regulatory Radar
    May 12, 2026
    Authorities are seeking better visibility into the private credit markets, now estimated at $1.5 to $2 trillion, particularly where life insurers are involved.

    News

    Redistricting Update: Court Decisions Upend More Congressional Maps

    May 12, 2026

    Early polling on the 2026 generic congressional ballot shows Democrats with a consistent national edge of four to six points, and in a favorable position to retake the House. However, with two recent court victories, Republicans have improved their chances of holding onto the House. 

    • These two actions taken together give the GOP a double digit advantage from redistricting, and have left Democrats reeling.
    • Democrats are still favored to win control given the historic and current political tailwinds, but they will not be able to count on as many safe seats.

    On May 8, the Virginia state supreme court invalidated the referendum that voters had approved just a few weeks prior.

    • This reversed the new 10-1 map that would have netted Democrats four more seats. Instead, the current 6-5 map is likely to be in effect this fall, though two of those GOP seats are in play.

    As we covered last week, the Supreme Court struck down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in a 6-3 decision.

    • The Court held that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965 only applies to “intentional” racial discrimination in the drawing of congressional maps.
    • This ruling invalidated the provision that required minority voters not be divided into multiple districts in a manner that dilutes their voting power.
    • Consequently, many southern states with large minority populations immediately began efforts to redraw their maps in ways that were not previously legal prior to the ruling.
    • The maps in southern states are likely to face legal challenges and there is still a chance that redrawn maps in multiple states could be invalidated prior to election day.

    The big picture: Over the past year, Republican states across the country began a flurry of redistricting at the direction of President Trump to try and shore up GOP seats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Democrats responded with their own efforts in California and Virginia.

    By the numbers: Thirteen states that have enacted new maps or are currently working on passing new maps are listed on the chart below. 

    Source: Cook Political Report *The maps have not been formally approved, but are currently under consideration within the state legislatures. **In Virginia, the state put a new map before voters and it was approved via special election but struck down by the Virginia Supreme Court on May 8.*** Legislation has been signed into law but is currently being litigated at the Missouri Supreme Court in multiple lawsuits. 

    • Notably, in Missouri, the bill to redraw the maps has been signed into law, but is being litigated at the Missouri Supreme Court in multiple cases. These cases both challenge the legitimacy of the map and the referendum language that was put in front of voters last year.
    • The projected delegations are the most optimistic totals based on historical voting data that each party has claimed their new map will help flip.
    • If these maps hold, the net gain of all redistricting efforts will be a thirteen seat gain for the GOP, assuming similar voting patterns.
    • Yes, but: State lawmakers have had to break up very safe seats in some cases, which could make other districts more vulnerable in cycles that heavily favor one party. 

    The bottom line: Early polling on the 2026 generic congressional ballot shows Democrats with a national edge. 

    • As President Trump’s approval ratings are stuck in the 30’s, the environment for Democrats to retake the House looks promising. 
    • Republicans have narrowed the margin of victory possible for Dems through redistricting, but Democrats remain the favorites to retake control this fall.

    Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

    Contact  

    James Montfort
    Manager,
    Government Relations
    202.448.0857
    jmontfort@crefc.org
    The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
    Redistricting Update: Court Decisions Upend More Congressional Maps
    May 12, 2026
    Early polling on the 2026 generic congressional ballot shows Democrats with a consistent national edge of four to six points, and in a favorable position to retake the House.

    News

    Trump Urges Passage of Senate Housing Bill

    May 12, 2026

    Last night, President Donald Trump urged the House to swiftly pass the Senate version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) that includes a ban on large institutional investors owning single-family rental (SFR) housing. 

    Why it matters: Trump has remained largely silent on the issues since the Senate passed the bill 89-9 on March 12. The House has delayed considering the bill after objections to the treatment of build-to-rent (BTR) properties and other provisions; the committee had been close to releasing amended text. 

    Go deeper: We have previously covered the Section 901 provisions passed in the Senate that would ban investors from owning 350 or more SFR homes.

    • While the purchase ban would exempt BTR, it would force owners to sell new BTR to consumers within seven years.
    • The bill also would have unintended consequences on other forms of multifamily housing and create a confusing compliance regime. Reports indicate that BTR investment has slowed or stopped in some areas. 
    • The Senate passed the provision unchanged despite strong objections from the real estate industry, including homebuilders.

    Yes, but: The House continues to work on its counteroffer to the Senate bill. Reports from Politico over the weekend indicate the Section 901 ban on large institutional investors ownership of single family rental homes is likely to change in a House version. 

    • A bipartisan group of 76 House members sent a letter to leadership last month indicating their opposition to the BTR provisions.
    • No official text has been released and it is not clear that House GOP and Democratic negotiators have signed off on the final text. 
    • The reported GOP amendments would eliminate the seven-year build-to-rent (BTR) divestment requirement and revise the definition of single-family home. 
    • If an amended bill is released this week, the House could vote on the bill as soon as next week. 
    • It is not clear if or when the Senate would act on a changed housing bill should the House pass an amended bill.

    What they’re saying: Prior to Trump’s post, Politico reported President Donald Trump has privately expressed his opposition to the seven-year BTR divestment and considered posting his thoughts before backing down.

    • The President’s reported hesitancy bolstered the House position against the Senate, but the latest post may derail changing the bill. 
    • House leadership has not yet responded to the President’s demand. 
    • The SFR ban has been the White House’s central demand to any housing bill, though the Senate language went far beyond the January 2026 executive order

    What's next: CREFC and other industry groups continue to work with lawmakers and staff on Section 901 issues and the broader housing bill. 

    Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions.

    Contact  

    David McCarthy
    Managing Director,
    Chief Lobbyist, Head of Legislative Affairs
    202.448.0855
    dmccarthy@crefc.org
    The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
    Trump Urges Passage of Senate Housing Bill
    May 12, 2026
    Last night, President Donald Trump urged the House to swiftly pass the Senate version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644).

    News

    Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

    May 12, 2026

    Economic Data & Labor Market

    • April payrolls beat, but the labor signal is uneven. Employers added 115k jobs in April, versus 65k in the Bloomberg consensus and 55k in the WSJ consensus. March reading was revised up to 185k, while February was revised down to a 156k loss. The unrounded unemployment rate ticked up to 4.34% from 4.26%, U-6 rose to 8.2%, and participation fell to 61.8%, the lowest since October 2021. The headline says resilience; the internals say caution.
    • Hiring broadened, with freight doing much of the work. Healthcare and social assistance added 54k, transportation and warehousing 30k, retail 22k, and couriers/messengers nearly 38k, the largest gain since 2020. Bloomberg Economics sees the freight gain as evidence of stronger industrial momentum. Still, some of it likely reflects oil exports, rerouting, inventory hedging, and trade adjustment rather than a clean cyclical reacceleration.
    • Information-sector losses remain the clearest AI-adjacent warning. Information employment fell for a 16th straight month and is down ~342k, or 11%, from its November 2022 peak. The packet does not prove AI is the sole driver, but tech-sector cuts and information-sector weakness remain where labor substitution is most visible.
    • Consumer sentiment is the recession-looking data point. Preliminary May UMich sentiment fell to 48.2 from 49.8, a fresh record low. Current conditions hit their lowest level on record, and consumers’ view of their current financial situation fell to the lowest since 2009. One-year inflation expectations eased to 4.5% and 5-to-10-year expectations to 3.4%, but both remain elevated.
    • Productivity helps, but does not solve inflation. 1Q productivity rose 0.8% annualized and 2.9% YoY, the strongest annual pace since 2024. Unit labor costs rose 2.3%. The labor share of nonfarm business output fell to 54.1%, the lowest in the series dating back to 1947. Inflation pressure points include energy, imports, freight, and pass-throughs, not wages overheating.

    Federal Reserve Policy & the Warsh Transition

    • The payroll report keeps the Fed focused on inflation. April hiring was strong enough to remove the urgency to cut. Money-market pricing now implies the Fed stays on hold through year-end 2026, with some hedging for a possible 2027 hike. The next test is April CPI, with Bloomberg Economics expecting 0.6% MoM headline, 3.7% YoY headline, 0.4% MoM core, and 2.7% YoY core.
    • The FOMC’s easing bias is under attack. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari dissented from the April 29 statement language, suggesting the next move would more likely be a cut. Hammack called that language “a little bit misleading.” Collins, a non-voter, agreed the statement should be more agnostic and said she would strongly consider a hike if inflation moved materially in the wrong direction.
    • Warsh inherits a harder committee than markets initially priced. Warsh may prefer easier policy and balance-sheet reform, but he will face a visible hawkish bloc if he chairs the June 16-17 meeting. Bloomberg Intelligence’s practical point: Warsh will need time and persuasion before cuts become viable.
    • Goldman moved its first cut to December 2026. Goldman pushed expected Fed cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, delayed by one quarter, because energy pass-through is likely to keep core PCE closer to 3% than 2% through year-end. Goldman lowered its 12-month recession probability to 25% from 30%, still above its 20% pre-war estimate.
    • The global central-bank split is widening. Norway delivered a surprise 25 bp hike, its first since 2023, and Australia has hiked at three consecutive meetings. The Fed is not Norway or Australia, but the G10 backdrop makes a simple “Warsh cuts quickly” story harder to defend.

    Treasury Yields & Bond Markets

    • Treasuries ended mixed, not in a clean selloff. Per Bloomberg Friday closes, the 2-year was flat on the week at 3.88%, the 10-year down 2 bps to 4.35%, and the 30-year also down 2 bps to 4.93%. The 30-year briefly broke above 5% earlier in the week before duration buyers stepped in. It remains only 16 bps below its 52-week high.
    • The curve message is less panicked, not easier. The front end remains elevated because cuts are not imminent; the long end eased because buyers stepped in near 5%, and oil slipped. For CRE, a 10-year at 4.35% still keeps fixed-rate financing costs elevated.
    • CPI and refunding are the next rate tests. Bloomberg Economics expects another hot headline CPI print, with gasoline up another 7% after March’s 21% increase. Treasury also has a heavy auction schedule: $58B of 3-year notes, $42B of 10-year notes, and $25B of 30-year bonds.

    Dollar, Commodities & Market Dynamics

    • Equities keep looking through the shock as earnings and AI dominate. The S&P 500 closed at a record and posted its sixth straight weekly gain; the Nasdaq Composite logged its 11th record close of 2026. Roughly 82% of S&P 500 companies have beaten 1Q profit estimates, and chipmakers rose 11% on the week.
    • Oil eased, but Hormuz still controls the macro tape. WTI closed Friday at $95, down on the week, while Brent was near $100 in the Bloomberg Briefs snapshot. The U.S. and Iran are working through mediators on a framework for talks, but fresh clashes near Hormuz show the ceasefire path remains fragile.
    • Inflation pressure is broadening beyond crude. The UN food-price index rose 1.6% in April to its highest level in more than three years. Bloomberg Economics expects April PPI to be 0.6% MoM and 4.9% YoY, with transportation and warehousing the largest core contributor, driven by diesel, jet fuel, and stronger freight activity. Import prices are expected to rise 0.9%, with ex-petroleum up 0.6%.

    CRE Finance Market Implications

    • Floating-rate borrowers have less near-term hope. Markets now price the Fed on hold through year-end 2026, and Goldman pushed its first expected cut to December 2026. That delays SOFR relief for bridge and transitional loans.
    • Inflation is hitting CRE through freight, fuel, and construction inputs. Expected April PPI strength in transportation and warehousing, import-price pressure, food-cost increases, and energy-linked materials all flow into operating expenses and development budgets.
    • Data centers remain strongest CRE demand engine, but the benefit is narrow. AI-linked spending supports data centers, power, equipment, and logistics demand. But broader CRE does not automatically share in that capital-market tailwind; non-data-center development and transitional deals still face selective lenders, higher coupons, and tougher refinancing math.
    Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Department of Labor; Federal Reserve; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Bloomberg; Bloomberg Economics; Bloomberg Intelligence; Financial Times; Wall Street Journal; WTO; Goldman Sachs; Norges Bank; AAA; UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

    You can download CREFC's one-page MarketMetrics, which includes statistics covering the economy and the CRE debt capital markets, here.

    Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

    Contact 

    Raj Aidasani
    Managing Director, Research
    646.884.7566
    The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
    Economy, the Fed, and Rates…
    May 12, 2026
    April payrolls beat, but the labor signal is uneven.

    News

    Introducing Spotlight on Servicing: Understanding CMBS Appraisal Reductions

    May 11, 2026

    CREFC is pleased to share the release of Understanding CMBS Appraisal Reductions, the first report in a new Spotlight on Servicing educational series focused on the servicing business. 
     
    Appraisal reductions play a critical role in CMBS servicing, influencing cash flow, bond performance, and investor control. This report explains how they work, including key trigger events, a typical Appraisal Reduction Amount (ARA) calculation, and the impact on bondholder payments and ratings. The report provides a clear introduction to how appraisal reductions function in CMBS. 

    Download

    The next edition in the series will look at hot topics in servicing, including a preview of servicing topics to be covered at CREFC’s Annual Conference in June. Spotlight on Servicing reports can be found in the CREFC Resource Center or Member Alert archives.

    For questions or additional information:

    Rich Carlson
    Senior Director, Servicing Liaison
    CRE Finance Council
    rcarlson@crefc.org

    Contact 

    Rich Carlson
    Senior Director, Servicing Liaison
    CRE Finance Council
    rcarlson@crefc.org

    The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
    Introducing Spotlight on Servicing: Understanding CMBS Appraisal Reductions
    May 11, 2026
    CREFC is pleased to share the release of Understanding CMBS Appraisal Reductions, the first report in a new Spotlight on Servicing educational series focused on the servicing business.

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