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Congressional Hearing Outlook 

October 7, 2025

The House Financial Services Committee released its hearing and markup schedule for October, which includes a hearing with prudential banking regulators, a housing costs hearing, and a hearing on deposit insurance reform. 

• However, the schedule could be disrupted if the government shutdown persists.

Full Committee Hearing: “From Principles to Policy: Enabling 21st Century AI Innovation in Financial Services”

• When: Wednesday, October 8, 2025, 10:00 AM ET

Financial Institutions Subcommittee Hearing: “The Future of Deposit Insurance”

• When: Thursday, October 9, 2025, 10:00 AM ET

Full Committee Hearing: “Building Capacity: Reducing Government Roadblocks to Housing Supply”

• When: Wednesday, October 15, 2025, 10:00 AM ET

National Security Subcommittee Hearing: “Evaluating CFIUS Operations”

• When: Thursday, October 16, 2025, 10:00 AM ET

Task Force on Monetary Policy Hearing: “Examining Primary Dealers and Balance Sheet Constraints”

• When: Thursday, October 16, 2025, 2:00 PM ET

Capital Markets Subcommittee Hearing: "Expanding Retirement Choices"

• When: Tuesday, October 21, 2025, 10:00 AM ET

Full Committee Hearing: “Oversight of Prudential Regulators”

• When: Wednesday, October 22, 2025, 10:00 AM ET

Markup of Various Measures

• When: Tuesday, October 28, 2025, 10:00 AM ET and Wednesday, October 29, 2025, 10:00 AM ET

Contact David McCarthy (Dmccarthy@crefc.org) with any questions.

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History on the Length of Government Shutdowns

October 7, 2025

Few Washington rituals are as reliably disruptive as a government shutdown. As we are nearly one week into the current shutdown, it is worth revisiting the last few shutdowns to understand their causes, consequences, and the lessons they left for markets and policy watchers alike. 

Many of these were very short—often lasting only a few days and barely noticeable to the general public. However, there have also been several longer shutdowns, which are listed below.

• 2018–2019 (35 Days): The Longest Shutdown

This record-breaking standoff, from December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019, stemmed from a dispute over border wall funding. Roughly 800,000 federal workers went without pay, major economic data releases were delayed, and some mortgage processing was disrupted due to furloughed staff at key agencies. While Treasury and the Fed kept operations running, confidence wavered. GDP growth for Q1 2019 was shaved by an estimated 0.1–0.2 percentage points.

• 2013 (16 Days): The Affordable Care Act Fight

 The October 2013 shutdown revolved around Republican attempts to defund the Affordable Care Act. Roughly 850,000 federal employees were furloughed, national parks and agencies shuttered, and credit markets briefly eyed the approaching debt ceiling. Equity markets dipped early in the standoff, then rallied as a deal materialized.

• 1995–1996 (21 Days Total): The Clinton–Gingrich Showdown

 This two-part shutdown remains a classic. Clashes between President Clinton and Speaker Newt Gingrich over Medicare, education, and spending cuts closed the government for five days in November 1995 and then for 21 days from December into January. The political fallout ultimately boosted Clinton’s reelection narrative.

Why it matters: Beyond political theater, shutdowns have real economic implications—from delayed data releases to disruptions in housing finance pipelines. They often inject short-term volatility and policy uncertainty, even if longer-term fundamentals remain intact. 

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

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CRE Securitized Debt Update

October 7, 2025

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

Four transactions totaling $2 billion priced last week:

1. WFCM 2025-C65, a $688.9 million conduit backed by 23 10-year loans secured by 79 properties from Wells, Argentic, JPMorgan, Goldman, SocGen, and Benefit Street.
2. BSTN 2025-HUB, a $465 million SASB backed by a fixed-rate, 5.5-year loan for a BXP and Delaware North Cos. joint venture to refinance one million square feet of office and retail space within the Hub on Causeway mixed-use development in Boston.
3. GSTNE 2025-HC4, a $451.6 million CRE CLO sponsored by Greystone. The managed transaction comprises 12 whole loans and seven loan participations, secured by 46 senior housing and healthcare-related properties across 13 states.
4. BX 2025-OMG, a $435 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Blackstone to refinance five multifamily properties totaling 1,717 units in Massachusetts, Florida, and Georgia.

By the numbers: Year-to-date private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totaled $116.3 billion, representing a 40% increase from the $83.1 billion recorded for the same period in 2024. 

Spreads Largely Unchanged

• Conduit AAA spreads and A-S spreads were unchanged at +76 and +113, respectively. YTD, AAA and A-S spreads are wider by 1 bp and 8 bps, respectively. 
• Conduit AA and A spreads were unchanged at +160 and +190, respectively. YTD, they are each wider by 25 bps.
• Conduit BBB- spreads were unchanged at +475. YTD, they are wider by 50 bps.
• SASB AAA spreads were wider by 3 – 5 bps to a range of +110 to +135, depending on property type.
• CRE CLO AAA and BBB- spreads were unchanged at +130 and +335, respectively.

Agency CMBS

• Agency issuance totaled $3 billion last week, comprising $1.4 billion of Fannie DUS, a $1.2 billion Freddie K transaction, and $397.9 million of Ginnie transactions.
• Agency issuance for the year totaled $108.8 billion, 36% higher than the $79.8 billion for the same period last year.
  

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CRE CLO Transparency Initiative: CMDR Component Nears Release

October 7, 2025

The CRE CLO market is poised to take another significant step forward in transparency. 

• The CMDR, an Excel-based file designed for quarterly distribution to CRE CLO investors, has been overwhelmingly well-received by Issuers and Investors alike. 
• Its finalization signals a new benchmark for disclosure in structured finance.
  

• The CMDR’s final release will be October 15, making the CMDR available for market-wide adoption.

CREFC anticipates that several Issuers will begin implementing the CMDR starting in Q4 2025, with their initial reports covering Q3 2025 data. 

Why it matters: The CMDR's finalization is particularly relevant given recent headlines from the Corporate CLO market. Over the past few weeks, a number of corporate CLO tranches have faced significant downgrades amid rising defaults in the underlying leveraged loan collateral.

• These rating actions underscore the primary structural difference between the two asset classes. 
• Corporate CLOs offer limited visibility into the health of the underlying collateral until covenant tests begin to fail.
• The CMDR's focus on granular, property-level data is the direct counterpoint to this informational challenge, offering CRE CLO investors a proactive view of collateral performance instead of a reactive one.

Dig deeper: Securitized pools of transitional commercial real estate loans—which are short-term, floating-rate loans secured by properties undergoing repositioning or renovation—require detailed, standardized reporting to assess risk accurately.

• The CMDR simplifies the analysis of underlying collateral by standardizing key metrics. 
• By reducing information asymmetry and providing investors with deeper insights, the CMDR is expected to attract a broader investor base, ensuring the continued evolution and health of commercial real estate finance.

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Government Shutdown Update

October 7, 2025

The federal government shutdown is approaching its first full week. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has also lapsed. 

What they’re saying: Little progress has been made in the stalemate.

• White House: President Donald Trump and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought have been threatening to fire more federal workers as part of a reduction in force during the shutdown. Vought has also canceled funding for federal energy and infrastructure projects in “blue” states. 
• Senate: Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) teed up another vote last Friday on the House Continuing Resolution (CR), which failed. While Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and his caucus remain opposed to reopening the government, several moderate Dems have voted for the clean CR. 
• House: The House has been out of session since it passed the CR, and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has framed the path forward as the Senate passing the clean CR. Johnson has been contemplating keeping the House out until the Senate acts. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) continues to push for action on expiring Affordable Care Act insurance tax credits. 

What’s next: The Administration’s layoff threats and spending cancellations may embolden Democrats and lengthen the shutdown. Several scenarios will likely play out this week: 

• The impact of the shutdown will intensify over time as furloughed and essential government workers will start missing paychecks beginning on Oct. 10. 
• The Senate will likely keep voting on the House CR as a way to pressure and peel off moderate Democrats. Assuming the partisan breakdown remains the same, five more Democrats would need to join to advance the CR.
• Standalone bills to pay active duty military may start to be introduced and considered if the shutdown lengthens. The votes will aim to add pressure to Democratic holdouts. 
• Reports indicate that some Republicans are nervous the shock of ACA premium increases could threaten them during the midterms. This could add pressure to find a compromise solution that will suffice for Democrats to support a CR.

Yes, but: Even if the shutdown is resolved with the House CR, that kicks the next deadline to November 21. 

• While congressional appropriators are confident they can pass the 12 appropriations bills to fund the government by then, the task will be complicated by the White House funding cancellations. 
• Fiscal year 1997 was the last time Congress passed all 12 appropriations bills on time. Other years have been enacted via continuing resolutions or omnibus bills that bundle multiple appropriations bills together. 

Contact David McCarthy (Dmccarthy@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Shutdown Affects Key Regulatory Agencies

October 7, 2025

In the absence of a continuing resolution (CR) agreement in Congress, as discussed in the above article, federal agencies tasked with overseeing financial markets and other sectors of the economy are partially or fully closed. 

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) March guidance and August shutdown operations plan indicate that the EDGAR system will remain fully operational so filers can submit reports.

• However, functions like review, comment letters, registration acceleration, no-action letters, and interpretive guidance will be suspended. 

The banking agencies (the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency do not rely on the appropriations process and can likely continue writing regulations. 

• Yes, but: if the Federal Register and the Office of Management and Budget’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs staff are furloughed, implementing proposals may become difficult as they rely on interagency coordination. 

The Treasury Department will suspend most nonessential activities, but continue core financial and economic operations, including debt issuance, cash management, and market surveillance. 

• Hill has advanced the Administration’s deregulatory agenda since January, including rolling back Biden-era limits on banks' cryptocurrency activities, removing reputational risk from examinations, and working with regulators to loosen capital requirements.
• He previously served as FDIC vice chair under Biden, senior adviser to former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams, and senior counsel on the Senate Banking Committee’s GOP staff.
• Please see here for CREFC’s updated Regulatory Tracker. 

CREFC will continue its advocacy on several regulatory issues, including the SEC’s Rule 17g-5 and ABS Disclosure Concept Release. 

Contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) if you have any questions. 

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Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

October 7, 2025

Economic Data

• Government Shutdown Creates Data Void: The biggest economic story of the week was what didn’t happen. The U.S. government shutdown delayed the official BLS jobs report for September, leaving the market and the Federal Reserve “flying blind” on the health of the labor market. This has forced investors to rely on a patchwork of alternative private-sector data.
• Private Payroll Data Shows Deterioration: ADP reported a 32,000 job loss in September, the largest decline in 2.5 years. Job openings per Indeed fell 8.9% year-over-year to fresh lows. LinkedIn data shows job-switching rates are 20% below pre-pandemic levels in the U.S., indicating labor market stagnation.
• Labor Market Stuck in “Low-Hire, Low-Fire” Cycle: Broader trends indicate a stagnant labor market, as employers pause hiring and firing amid economic uncertainty. Fed Chair Jay Powell characterized the environment as a “low-hire, low-fire economy”. While the unemployment rate remains low (4.3% in August), job growth has decelerated significantly from earlier in the year.
• Tariff Impact on Inflation Becomes Evident: While headline inflation remains moderate at 2.9%, the costs of President Trump’s tariffs are now visibly driving up prices for specific consumer goods. In the six months to August, prices for audio equipment rose 14%, dresses 8%, and tools 5%. Ashley Furniture announced price increases of 3.5% to 12% starting October 6. AutoZone’s CEO warned, “There probably will be more” price rises as tariff impacts intensify.
• Supreme Court Tariff Challenge Looms: On November 5, the Supreme Court will hear a case testing whether April’s IEEPA-based tariffs are constitutional. If struck down, Treasury may need to repay billions in tariff revenue. Legal scholars believe administration likely loses unless the court is “cowed by Trump’s power.”
  

Federal Reserve: Policy Signals & Debate

• October Cut Likely Despite Data Blackout: Markets are pricing a better-than-95% probability of a 25-bp cut at the October 28-29 meeting. The shutdown and associated data delays make October rate cuts more likely, said Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI. That's because a lack of data means the Fed has no reassurance that the labor market remains on solid ground. In that case, he said, the Fed's default is to cut rates.
• Different Readings of a Softer Jobs Picture: Governor Michelle Bowman warned the economy could enter a “precarious” period. At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee argued that slower job growth may reflect supply factors—such as retirements and changes in immigration—more than weak demand.
• Working with Limited Data: With fewer official reports, the Fed is relying more on its regional survey book and private trackers, although economists caution that these are not perfect substitutes.
  

• AI Trade Shows Cracks: Open AI’s $500 billion valuation sparked concerns about froth. Goldman CEO Solomon warned he “wouldn’t be surprised by a stock market drawdown” given stretched valuations. Jeff Bezos called AI an “industrial bubble,” though he added, 

Implications for the CRE Finance Market

• Stagnant Labor Market Signals Flat CRE Fundamentals: The “low-hire, low-fire” economy suggests stable occupancy for existing assets but muted demand for new space. The slowdown in hiring directly impacts absorption in the office sector, while nervous consumers and employers could weigh on retail and hotel demand.
• Tariff-Driven Cost Increases: Rising prices for materials like steel will increase costs for construction, renovations, and tenant improvements. A real estate executive quoted in an ISM survey noted that tariffs 

• Bank-to-NDFI Lending Reflects Market Evolution: The dramatic growth in bank lending to non-depository financial institutions (or “shadow banks”) – now $1.7 trillion and accounting for all 2025 bank lending growth – represents both a vital liquidity channel for CRE finance and a transparency challenge for the market. While this lending enables banks to support CRE debt funds, mortgage REITs, and CLO managers in providing crucial capital to the real estate sector, the limited disclosure requirements make it difficult for all market participants – regulators, investors, and the institutions themselves – to fully assess concentrated exposures and interconnected risks across the system.
  

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

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SEC Issues Concept Release on ABS Disclosure

September 30, 2025

On Sept. 26, 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a concept release to solicit public comment on the current SEC rules governing ABS, with a largely RMBS focus. Comments are due 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.

• Market participants often cite RMBS asset-level disclosure requirements, particularly for private or confidential information, as key obstacles to the issuance of publicly-offered RMBS. 

The concept release further states:

• The SEC also welcomes comments on any other aspects of the ABS registration and reporting regime. 
• CREFC will review the concept release and work with members to provide comment. 

Please contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) if you have any questions or would like to join this effort.

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CRE Securitized Debt Update

September 30, 2025

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

1. ESA 2025-ESH, a $1.9 billion SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for a joint venture between Blackstone and Starwood to refinance a portfolio of 220 extended-stay hotels operated by Extended Stay America, Inc., totaling 24,560 rooms across 33 states.
2. BSPRT 2025-FL12, a $1.1 billion CRE CLO sponsored by Benefit Street Partners. The managed transaction comprises 44 loans secured by 73 properties. The pool’s top three property types are multifamily (61.8%), hotel (22.3%), and industrial (12.1%).
3. BANK5 2025-5YR17, a $1 billion conduit backed by 44 five-year loans secured by 66 properties from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells, and BofA.
4. NRTH 2025-PARK, a $900 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for NorthPark Management to refinance the 1.9 million square foot NorthPark Center super-regional mall in Dallas.
5. BMO 2025-C13, an $814.2 million conduit backed by 47 10-year loans secured by 89 properties from BMO, Deutsche, Key, Citi, Goldman, JPMorgan, Zions, Benefit Street, LMF, Starwood, and Greystone.
6. WFCM 2025-5C6, a $622.7 million conduit backed by 26 five-year loans secured by 51 properties from Wells, JPMorgan, LMF, Rialto, Argentic, Citi, Goldman, and UBS
7. VTR 2025-STEM, a $475 million SASB backed by a fixed-rate, four-year loan for Ventas and GIC to refinance two life-science properties totaling 811,000 square feet in Pennsylvania.
8. HAVN 2025-MOB, a $278.3 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Welltower and Wafra to refinance 22 medical office properties in 13 states.
9. WFCM 2025-AURA, a $275 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for BTG Pactual and Morning Calm Management to refinance a portfolio of 24 industrial properties totaling 4.8 million square feet across Ohio and Michigan.

By the numbers: Year-to-date private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totals $114.1 billion, representing a 43% increase from the $79.6 billion recorded for same-period 2024. 

Spreads Unchanged 

• Conduit AAA and A-S spreads were unchanged at +76 and +113, respectively. YTD, AAA and A-S spreads are wider by 1 bp and 8 bps, respectively. 
• Conduit AA and A spreads were unchanged at +160 and +190, respectively. YTD, they are each wider by 25 bps.
• Conduit BBB- spreads were unchanged at +475. YTD, they are wider by 50 bps.
• SASB AAA spreads held steady in a range of +105 to +132, depending on property type.
• CRE CLO AAA and BBB- spreads were unchanged at +130 and +335, respectively.

Agency CMBS

• Agency issuance totaled $3.4 billion last week, comprising $1.4 billion of Fannie DUS, $1.2 billion of Freddie K, Q, and Multi-PC transactions, and $797.3 million of Ginnie Mae Project Loan transactions.
• Agency issuance for the year totals $105.7 billion, 39% higher than the $75.9 billion for same-period 2024.
  

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