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TRIA Update: Committee Advances Reauthorization

January 27, 2026

On January 22, the House Financial Services Committee voted to advance H.R. 7128, a reauthorization of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) through 2034. 

• Two changes were included in the otherwise clean reauthorization: 
  • The bill raises the certification threshold from $5 million in losses to $10 million by 2029 (essentially an inflation adjustment) and 
  • Sets a time limit for Treasury to certify an attack. 
• The committee approved the bill in a bipartisan 51-2 vote with two GOP members opposing, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) and Rep. John Rose (R-TN). 
• CREFC partnered with industry advocates including real estate policy holders and the insurance companies to educate Congress about TRIA ahead of the effort. We will continue to work toward a long-term reauthorization. 

Why it matters: Without action, TRIA is set to expire at the end of 2027. Since its original enactment in 2002, the program has functioned as a federal backstop to the terrorism risk insurance market through a private/public risk sharing program. 

What’s next: The full House and the Senate will need to act on the bill before it is sent to the President. The strong bipartisan committee vote makes the path ahead easier. 

• The House could vote on the bill through regular order on a standalone basis or use the “suspension calendar” that requires a two-thirds majority to advance. The suspension calendar procedures is reserved for broad, bipartisan efforts.
• Most legislation in the Senate passes as part of a larger “must-pass” package rather than on a standalone basis due to Senate rules that can eat up limited “floor time”. In addition to making the case for reauthorization, CREFC and other advocates will work to find a legislative vehicle to advance the bill. 

What they’re saying: The debate was largely supportive of reauthorization and the proposed changes, with both Chairman French Hill (R-AR) and Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-CA) being supporters. Housing and Insurance Subcommittee Chairman Mike Flood (R-NE) and Homeland Security Committee Chairman Andrew Garbarnio (R-NY) were the lead sponsors of the bill. 

• As noted above, Rep. Rose opposed the final bill and emphasized the program originally was intended to be temporary to build market capacity and time to adjust. 
• Rose offered an amendment that would:
  • Reset the federal government’s share of covered losses above insured deductibles to 75 percent and then reduce it by one percentage point a year until it reaches 70 percent;
  • Increase the program trigger by $10 million per year until it reaches $250 million, at which point it would be indexed for inflation using a benchmark selected by the Treasury Secretary.
  • The committee rejected the Rose amendment by a 2-49 vote.
• Two Democrats offered messaging amendments that would extend TRIA coverage to losses caused by ICE agents or the invocation of the Insurrection Act. The committee rejected both amendments in a 18-34 vote. 

The bottom line: CREFC will continue to educate the House and Senate and work with its industry partners on a long-term reauthorization. 

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Government Funding Update

January 27, 2026

With just five days remaining before current government funding expires on January 31, it is uncertain if the government will remain open.

Why it matters: After the House passed the slate of funding bills, lawmakers were confident late last week that the Senate would act quickly to enact the legislation. However, in the wake of the ICE shooting in Minneapolis, Democrats, including key moderates, are vowing to vote down any bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). 

Why it’s important: If a government shutdown does occur this weekend, its important to note that it will be a partial shutdown in comparison to the one last fall. 

To date, the following six bills listed below have passed into law, so the government would at least remain partially open if nothing is resolved before January 31. 

The bills passed and the agencies they control that would remain open are listed below, you can read more about the passage of these bills here and here.

• Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration 
  • U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
  • Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
• Legislative Branch,
  • Congress & Related Offices
• Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, (MilCon-VA)
  • Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)
  • Department of Defense – Military Construction
• Commerce, Justice, Science 
  • Department of Commerce 
  • Department of Justice 
  • NASA
• Energy and Water Development 
  • Department of Energy 
  • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers — Civil Works
• Interior and Environment
  • National Park Service
  • Bureau of Land Management
  • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
  • Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
  • U.S. Forest Service
  • Indian Health Service (IHS)

Where we stand as of today;

• House Action: House Republicans passed their final funding bills on January 22, which funded the Defense, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Health and Human Services, Labor, Education, and other related agencies. 
• Senate Math: Passage in the Senate remains more complex, as at least seven Democrats will need to support the measure to reach the 60-vote threshold to break a filibuster. In the aftermath of the shooting this weekend, some Democrats are threatening not to pass any government funding bills as a protest against DHS/ICE. 

However, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is advocating a different strategy, and would like to split the DHS bill out from the other government funding bills.

"Senate Republicans must work with Democrats to advance the other five funding bills while we work to rewrite the DHS bill," Schumer said, calling it the "best course of action."

Source: CBS News

What’s next: The path to avoid a shutdown is narrowing, with five days to go, both sides have been pushed farther apart by the unrest in Minneapolis.

• As of today, three of the eight Senate Democrats who voted to end the last shutdown are on record opposing this DHS funding bill. They are Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev), and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va).
• Their votes, among other moderate Democrats, will be crucial to watch in the lead up to January 31. 

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

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CRE CLO Spotlight: CREFC Miami Update

January 27, 2026

There was a clear sense of optimism across the CREFC community at the January 2026 Conference in Miami last week, and this enthusiasm extended to the CRE CLO sector. A key highlight of the event was the CRE CLO Investor Reporting Meeting, at which industry participants gathered to tackle the evolving needs of transparency and market standardization.

For those who couldn't join us in South Beach, the session served as a critical forum for aligning the interests of investors, issuers, and servicers. Here is a breakdown of the key initiatives in motion.

The Push for Financial Reporting Alignment: The centerpiece of the meeting was a discussion on the requirement to standardize financial reporting across various platforms—specifically Servicer IRP reports, Quarterly Asset Reports (QARs), and the Collateral Manager Data Report (CMDR).

As Trust and Servicing Agreement (TSA) language evolves to incorporate this standardization, the group reached a consensus: there is a key need for underwriting guidelines for transitional assets that provide a uniform reporting structure across all issuers.

The Roadmap: CREFC is working with Issuers to establish formal guidelines and update the CREFC IRP NOI Worksheet to encompass transitional assets. A draft template will be shared with the full working group and IRP Committee for feedback shortly, with a formal implementation target of June 2026.

Key Industry Updates & Enhancements

Beyond financial alignment, the working group addressed several technical updates vital to the health of the market:

• Annex Rows for Loan Additions: This has moved from a "nice-to-have" to a standard market practice. If you are not seeing Annex Rows referenced in your transaction documents, please alert CREFC so we can engage with issuers to bridge these gaps.
• CMDR Rollout: The transition to the Collateral Manager Data Report (CMDR) is hitting a major milestone. We anticipate a majority of issuers will produce this report this quarter, utilizing Q4 2025 data. We are eager to hear your feedback as this goes live.
• Floating-Rate Data Fields: To better serve the CRE CLO and floating-rate SASB markets, the IRP Committee is adding specific fields to capture Extended Maturity Dates and Interest Rate Caps.

Looking Ahead

The bottom line: The strength of the CRE CLO market relies on the active participation of its members. We value your continued support as we refine these reporting standards to meet the demands of this sophisticated investor base.

Missed the meeting? 

• We remain available for one-on-one calls to bring your firm up to date on these developments. 
• Please reach out to the CREFC team with any questions or comments.

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Forum Spotlight: Key Takeaways from Miami

January 27, 2026

The CREFC Forums presented their viewpoints and updates at the January 2026 Conference in Miami. The sentiment across the board was constructive, driven by a resurgence in lending and securitization volumes. 

Issuers Forum. The Issuer Forum kicked off the Forum panels on Monday highlighting the ~$150 billion in issuance for 2025 – a nearly 40% improvement over 2024 and the strongest volume since the post-GFC era. Discussion points included the:

• Growing financing of data centers, 
• Today’s interest-rate volatility, 
• The integration of AI, and 
• Market nuances within the office and multifamily sectors.

Alternative Lenders and High Yield Investors Forum. The Forum covered topics ranging from:

• Capital deployment across the capital stack in 2025 vs. expectations for 2026, 
• Structural protections as the primary credit tool, and 
• Refinance assumptions vs reality.

The discussion also drilled down into South Florida real estate—specifically West Palm Beach and Miami—analyzing the market from both borrower and lender perspectives.

Portfolio Lenders Forum. The Forum covered topics ranging from the competitive landscape, pricing dynamics, and underwriting divergence. Panelists also shared their conviction for new investment across industrial, multifamily, retail, office, and other property types, alongside back-leverage options.

B-Piece Investors Forum. Participants focused on conduit issuance trends, noting volumes remain slightly below pre-COVID levels. Other topics included deal size, underwriting standards, and the impact of the cost of debt on acquisitions and refinances. The panel also addressed credit concerns regarding recent-vintage multifamily assets and the hospitality sector outlook.

IG Bondholders Forum. The forum kicked off Tuesday with a spirited panel discussion offering a balanced view that cited strong tailwinds—such as expectations of record issuance to continue into 2026 and improved CRE CLO reporting, as well as headwinds like delinquency upticks and ratings migration. The Forum emphasized that enhanced transparency is critical to maintaining positive market momentum. 

Servicers Forum. The discussion prioritized operational resilience (covering cybersecurity and data privacy), shifting regulatory compliance, and loan workout trends. The panel also explored workforce evolution and talent management in the age of AI.

GSE/Multifamily Lenders Forum. The Forum panel series concluded with a robust discussion on multifamily fundamentals, the macroeconomic environment, and the interest-rate trajectory. The panel provided an outlook on 2026 GSE caps, volume expectations, and the broader capital markets landscape, including the potential impact of deregulation and capital easing.

Please Join Us for an Upcoming Webinar: 

• Meeting of the Seven Families: CREFC Forums Roundup. 
• Did you miss the insights in Miami? Join leaders from all seven CREFC Forums for a cross-disciplinary webinar that synthesizes the common themes for navigating today's markets and offers views on what lies ahead. 
• The Webinar is scheduled for Thursday, February 12, 2026 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM EST. Click here for complimentary registration.

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Government Relations Pickleball Recap

January 27, 2026

On Saturday, January 10, the CREFC Government Relations team hosted a Pickleball event in Miami at the Sip & Pickle Club in Wynwood.

Participants of all skill levels took to the courts with matches that were fast-paced, occasionally intense, and consistently entertaining. This was a great opportunity for attendees to network with other Forum members and enjoy the Miami sunshine! 

What’s Next? Stay tuned for future Government Relations and CREFC PAC events and hope to see you there. 

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions, event suggestions, or if you would like to attend a future event! 

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Supreme Court Hears Arguments on President’s Attempt to Fire Board Governor

January 27, 2026

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments regarding President Trump’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, asking pointed questions about due process, judicial review, and the long-standing independence of the central bank.

Why it matters: The case tests how a president can unilaterally fire a Fed governor for “cause” and whether courts can review that decision. The outcome could redefine the balance of power between the White House and the central bank.

• Additionally, Cook’s term runs until 2038, and she is one of three Democrats on the Fed’s seven-member board. Removing her would accelerate Trump’s ability to install another Board member.

Background: Trump tried to fire Cook last August, citing alleged mortgage improprieties.

• Cook sued, arguing that the Federal Reserve Act allows removal only for “inefficiency, neglect, or malfeasance,” and that she was never given a chance to respond to the allegations.
• The Court heard oral arguments specifically on the Trump administration’s emergency request to lift lower-court orders allowing Cook to remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors.

Across ideological lines, justices appeared uneasy with:

• The speed: Multiple justices questioned why the court should act on an emergency basis without a developed factual record.
• The process: Cook was not provided with an opportunity to present evidence at a hearing.
  • As reported by National Mortgage News, Justice Sotomayor stated that the underlying facts remain unresolved, asking whether an error on a mortgage application necessarily rises to the level of malfeasance: “There is a factual issue. Now the question is, who resolves that issue?”
• The precedent: Several warned that ruling for Trump could turn Fed governors into at-will political appointees. 
  • National Mortgage News also reported that Justice Kavanaugh, a Trump appointee, said that the administration’s position “would weaken, if not shatter, the independence of the Federal Reserve.”

What’s next: The justices appeared inclined to let Cook remain in her post while the litigation continues. Market participants and former Fed officials say the court’s skepticism also undercuts any near-term effort to remove Powell.

• Observers expect a narrow ruling, potentially focused on process and emergency relief rather than a sweeping redefinition of presidential power.

CREFC will continue to keep a close eye on this case, particularly given that the Fed remains the only financial regulatory agency whose Board-level leadership still includes presidential appointees from both parties.

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White House Executive Order on SFR

January 27, 2026 

On January 20, the White House issued an executive order (“EO” ) entitled “Stopping Wall Street from Competing with Main Street Homebuyers” that seeks to limit or end government involvement or support of single-family home rentals (SFR). 

Why it matters: As we previously noted, President Trump posted his opposition to institutional investors owning single-family homes, noting that the practice exacerbates existing home ownership limitations and affordability. While Trump called for legislation, the EO also outlines some of the limited ways regulators may seek to constrain corporate SFR.

The bottom line: Even with the order, the President’s ability to unilaterally restrict SFR through regulation is at best unclear and likely limited without further congressional action. Most of the impact will come in the form of messaging or giving a bipartisan boost to state legislation looking to limit SFR. 

Go deeper: The EO directs several cabinet officers to take specific actions. 

• Definition: The Treasury Secretary has 30 days to develop regulatory definitions of “large institutional investor” and “single-family home”.
• Restriction on Sale by Federal Government: Directs leadership of departments of Ag, HUD, VA, GSA, and FHFA to issue guidance to:
  • Prevent agencies from providing for, approving, insuring, guaranteeing, securitizing, or facilitating the acquisition by a large institutional investor of a single-family home that could otherwise be purchased by an individual owner-occupant; or
  • Prevent disposing of Federal assets in a manner that transfers a single-family home to a large institutional investor; and
  • Promote sales to individual owner-occupants, including through anti-circumvention provisions, first-look policies, and disclosure requirements.
  • The guidance should include an exception for build-to-rent properties. 
• Antitrust Review: The Attorney General and the Federal Trade Commission are directed to review large SFR acquisitions and prioritize antitrust enforcement against coordinated vacancy and pricing controls by large institutional investors. 
• Legislation: The White House is preparing legislation to codify the policy “so that large institutional investors do not acquire single-family homes that could otherwise be purchased by families.”

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CRE Securitized Debt Update

January 27, 2026

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

Eight transactions totaling $7.8 billion priced last week:

1. ESA 2026-ESH2, a $1.9 billion SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Blackstone and Starwood to refinance a portfolio of 196 Extended Stay America hotels.
2. MF1 2026-FL21, a $1.3 billion CRE CLO sponsored by MF1 REIT III. The managed transaction comprises 24 loans secured by 35 properties. The pool’s composition is entirely multifamily.
3. FSRIA 2026-FL11, a $1 billion CRE CLO sponsored by FS Credit REIT. The managed transaction comprises one whole loan and 22 loan participations secured by 32 properties. The pool’s top three property types are multifamily (32.5%), industrial (30.4%), and hotel (14.6%).
4. ACRES 2026-FL4, a $1 billion CRE CLO sponsored by ACRES Commercial Realty. The managed transaction comprises 18 loan participations secured by 20 properties. The pool’s composition is entirely multifamily.
5. BXMT 2026-FL6, a $1 billion CRE CLO sponsored by Blackstone Mortgage Trust. The managed transaction comprises 19 loans secured by 156 properties. The pool’s top-three property types are multifamily (69.6%), industrial (22.5%), and healthcare (4.6%).
6. BBCMS 2026-5C40, an $834.4 million conduit backed by 44 five-year loans secured by 59 properties from Barclays, Argentic, Deutsche, Key, Goldman, UBS, LMF, Citi, SocGen, and Natixis.
7. NYC 2026-1PARK, a $525 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Vornado to refinance the One Park Avenue office building in Manhattan.
8. NYC 2026-7W34, a $250 million SASB backed by a fixed-rate, five-year loan for Vornado and Korea Post to refinance the 7 West 34th Street office building in Manhattan.

By the numbers: YTD 2026 private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totals $11.4 billion, representing a 17% increase from the $9.7 billion recorded for same-period 2025.

Spreads Tighten

1. Conduit AAA were unchanged at +75, while A-S spreads tightened by 5 bps to +105.
2. Conduit AA and A spreads were tighter by 15 bps to +135 and +185, respectively.
3. Conduit BBB- spreads were tighter by 20 bps to +445.
4. SASB AAA spreads moved by -2 bps to +1 bp to a range of +102 to +135, depending on property type.
5. CRE CLO AAA spreads were unchanged at +135/+140 (static/managed); Static BBB- spreads were tighter by 65 bps to +275, and managed BBB- spreads were tighter by 55 bps to +285.

Agency CMBS

1. Agency issuance totaled $4.5 billion last week, comprising $2.4 billion in Fannie DUS, $1.8 billion in Freddie K, SB, and Multi-PC transactions, and $280.5 million in Ginnie transactions.
2. YTD agency issuance totaled $14.5 billion, 62% higher than the $9 billion recorded for same-period 2025.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

January 27, 2026

Economic Data & Labor Market

• Tariffs Hit Americans, Not Foreigners: New research from the Kiel Institute analyzing ~$4T of shipments (Jan 2024–Nov 2025) finds U.S. consumers/importers absorbed ~96% of tariff costs, with foreign exporters cutting prices by just ~4%. The ~$200B in additional tariff revenue last year “was paid almost exclusively by Americans.” Harvard Business School work suggests only ~20% had flowed through to consumer prices six months after enactment—implying further inflationary pass-through ahead.
  
• Long Term Unemployment Flashes Warning: Unemployed Americans now average 11+ weeks to find new work—the longest since 2021. Roughly 26% of the 7.5M unemployed have been searching for 27+ weeks, a cohort that grew 26% in 2025. December payrolls added just 50k jobs, below the 70k forecast.
  
• Blue Collar Reality Check: Despite “America First” rhetoric, manufacturing payrolls have shrunk every month since May, and ISM manufacturing has been in contraction for 10 consecutive months. The unemployment rate rose for native born workers, but eased slightly for foreign born workers. Labor’s share of GDP fell to a record low in Q3.
  
• Capex Resilience Persists: November durable goods orders surged 5.3% (vs 3.8% expected), the largest gain in six months. Core capital goods orders—a proxy for business investment—rose 0.7% (vs 0.3% expected), with gains in electrical equipment (+1.7%), fabricated metals (+1.0%), and machinery (+0.5%). Core orders are up >5% y/y, a three-year high; core shipments (+0.4%) reinforce steady underlying investment. AI related capex remains the standout driver.
  
• Consumer Sentiment Improves, Strains Persist: University of Michigan sentiment rose to 56.4 in January (five month high) with gains across income, age, and education cohorts; one year inflation expectations fell to 4.0% (lowest since Jan 2025). Offsetting: the savings rate continues to decline, credit card balances reached a record ~$1.2T, and serious delinquencies hit a 14-year high.

Federal Reserve Policy

• Fed Set to Hold: The FOMC is widely expected to keep rates at 4.25%–4.50% this week, with markets pricing ~97% odds of no change. After three cuts late last year, officials say policy is “within the strike zone of neutral.” Swaps point to the next cut in July, with one additional move possible by year end. JPMorgan has scrapped its 2026 rate cut forecast.
• Supervision Overhaul Underway: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is pursuing aggressive supervisory reforms—seeking ~30% staff reductions and fewer senior officials, ordering a fresh Silicon Valley Bank post-mortem, and tightening when examiners can cite banks. Former Governor Daniel Tarullo warns the approach risks signaling examiners to ease off: those who “push harder on the banks” risk reprimand and slower promotion.
• Case for Higher Inflation: Adam Posen (PIIE) and Peter Orszag (Lazard) argue inflation could exceed 4% by year end, citing lagged tariff pass through, immigration restrictions reducing labor supply, fiscal expansion (potentially ~1% of GDP), and looser than recognized financial conditions. Their warning: the Fed could again be “behind the curve,” with politics discouraging pre midterm hikes.
  

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