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CREFC Set to Host Largest Gathering of Commercial Real Estate Finance Leaders Next Month in Miami

December 16, 2025

MIAMI, FL — December 16, 2025 — The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) will gather the commercial real estate finance industry's foremost leaders at its flagship CREFC Miami conference, January 11-14, 2026. Widely recognized as the largest and most influential event in commercial real estate finance, CREFC Miami brings together more than 4,000 industry leaders for four days of market insights, high-value connection-building, and forward-looking discussion. 

As the recognized voice of the commercial real estate finance industry, CREFC represents lenders, investors, servicers, issuers, and the full range of professionals powering the commercial real estate capital markets. CREFC plays a vital role in shaping industry standards, delivering trusted research and data, and advocating the policy and regulatory issues that matter most to market participants.

Renowned for its member-driven, content-focused programming, CREFC Miami is the one event that brings the entire CRE finance ecosystem together in one place. Whether attendees are focused on capital markets, CRE loan origination, credit, loan servicing, policy, or investment strategy, the conference offers an unmatched environment in which relationships are strengthened, ideas are exchanged, and the direction of the market comes into focus.

Those in commercial real estate finance are entering 2026 with both caution and optimism, and CREFC Miami is where those perspectives come together,” said Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of CREFC. “Our conference delivers candid, member-driven dialogue that reflects real market conditions. This is where industry leaders gain clarity on emerging trends, share what they’re seeing on the ground, and prepare for the year ahead.”

Chris Voss, former Lead International Hostage Negotiator for the FBI and bestselling author of Never Split the Difference, will kick off the conference with the keynote session ─ "Tactical Empathy: Negotiation Secrets from an FBI Negotiator." As CEO of The Black Swan Group, Voss brings battle-tested strategies that empower executives to transform high-stakes standoffs into collaborative victories, a critical skillset as the commercial real estate sector navigates complex restructurings, uncertain capital markets, and approaching debt maturities. 

Scott Galloway, renowned entrepreneur and NYU Stern School of Business marketing professor, will share his annual predictions in a keynote session examining consumer, tech, and business trends that will have the biggest impact in 2026. Using data-informed insights, he will share his vision for the trends and opportunities that will define the year ahead and reflect on his previous year’s predictions.

Pendergast added, "CREFC Miami 2026 delivers precisely what our industry needs: keynote visionaries like Chris Voss and Scott Galloway unveiling high-stakes negotiation frameworks and market trends, paired with deep-dive sessions on today's most pressing industry issues: private credit's evolution, global capital flows, and transformative approaches to distressed office assets. Other sessions will unpack portfolio rebalancing tactics, alternative housing finance models, and data center capital demands.”

Key sessions at CREFC Miami include:

  • Private Credit Playbook: Evolving Players in the Debt Stack
  • Global Capital Flows: Navigating International Investments in U.S. Real Estate
  • Industry Leaders Roundtable
  • Portfolio Rebalancing Strategies: Loan Sales, Modifications, and Enforcement
  • From Vacancy to Value: Repositioning, Financing and Opportunities in Distressed Office
  • Beyond Traditional Multifamily: Exploring Alternative and Affordable Housing
  • Powering Digital Infrastructure: Growing Demand for Data Center Capital
  • A comprehensive lineup of Forums representing the various market constituents addressing key issues and trends
  • Updates on CREFC’s research, policy/regulatory issues, and initiatives supporting transparency and best practices in CRE finance

Event Details: 

About CREFC

The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) is the trade association for the nearly $6 trillion commercial real estate finance industry with a membership that includes approximately 400 companies and 19,000 individuals. Member firms include balance sheet and securitized lenders, loan and bond investors, private equity firms, servicers, rating agencies, and borrowers. For over 30 years, CREFC has promoted liquidity, transparency, and efficiency in the commercial real estate finance markets and acts as a legislative and regulatory advocate for the industry, playing a vital role in setting market standards and best practices and providing education for market participants. For more information visit www.crefc.org

Contact:
Mary Beth Ryan
Senior Director, Communications
646-884-7567
mryan@crefc.org

Contact  

Mary Beth Ryan
Senior Director,
Communications
646.884.7567
mryan@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC Set to Host Largest Gathering of Commercial Real Estate Finance Leaders Next Month in Miami
December 16, 2025
The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) will gather the commercial real estate finance industry's foremost leaders at its flagship CREFC Miami conference, January 11-14, 2026.

News

Capital Markets Update Week of 3/4

March 4, 2025

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

Eight transactions totaling $7.1 billion priced last week:

  1. BX 2025-ARIA, a $2.9 billion SASB backed by a fixed-rate, five-year loan for Blackstone to refinance the Aria Resort & Casino and the Vdara Hotel & Spa in Las Vegas.
  2. BANK 2025-BNK51, a $1 billion conduit backed by 74 primarily 10-year loans secured by 91 properties from Wells, Morgan Stanley, BofA, NCB, and JPMorgan.
  3. BANK5 2025-5YR19, a $949.1 million conduit backed by 35 five-year loans secured by 85 properties from Morgan Stanley, Wells, BofA, and JPMorgan.
  4. BBCMS 2025-C39, an $806.6 million conduit backed by 36 10-year loans secured by 69 properties from Barclays, Citi, Starwood, Deutsche, Wells, Goldman, Benefit Street, UBS, and Zions.
  5. BMARK 2025-V19, a $588.7 million conduit backed by 28 five-year loans secured by 48 properties from Citi, Goldman, Deutsche, and Barclays.
  6. NYC 2025-77C, a $405 million SASB backed by a fixed-rate, five-year loan for Clipper Equity to refinance the Tower 77 apartment building in the Greenpoint area of Brooklyn.
  7. GSJP 2025-BEDS, a $271.5 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Kayne Anderson Real Estate and Core Spaces to refinance five student-housing properties in four states.
  8. BAMLL 2025-HYT, a $237.5 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Portman Holdings to refinance the Hyatt Regency Salt Lake City hotel.

By the numbers: Year-to-date private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totals $155.3 billion, representing a 37% increase from the $113.4 billion recorded for same-period 2024. 

Spreads Come In

  • Conduit AAA and A-S spreads were unchanged at +80 and +115. YTD, they are wider by 5 bps and 10 bps, respectively. 
  • Conduit AA and A spreads tightened by 10 bps to +150 and +200. YTD, they are wider by 15 bps and 35 bps, respectively.
  • Conduit BBB- spreads were tighter by 10 bps to +465. YTD, they are wider by 40 bps.
  • SASB AAA spreads moved -4 bps to +1 bp, depending on property type, to a range of +113 to +136.
  • CRE CLO AAA spreads were unchanged at +135/+140 (static/managed); BBB- spreads also held constant at +340 (static/managed).

Agency CMBS

  • Agency issuance totaled $3.9 billion last week, comprising $2.3 billion in Fannie DUS, $1.2 billion in Freddie K, Q, and Multi-PC transactions, and $404.7 million in Ginnie transactions.
  • Agency issuance for the year totaled $147.9 billion, 26% higher than the $117.9 billion for same-period 2024.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

Contact 

Raj Aidasani
Managing Director, Research
646.884.7566
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CRE Securitized Debt Update
December 16, 2025
Eight transactions totaling $7.1 billion priced last week.

News

CREFC Responds to CFPB 1071 Re-Proposal

December 16, 2025

On December 15, CREFC submitted a response to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) 1071 re-proposal. CREFC also signed onto a joint trade letter, also submitted on December 15.

The 1071 reporting requirements, via a final rule originally issued in 2023, prescribe the collection of data on loan applications and originations made to small businesses. 

  • The 2023 rule largely exempted multifamily loans, which are reported separately under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA).
  • However, it did not exempt loans secured by commercial real estate made to a small businesses.

The Re-proposal makes several helpful changes for CRE lenders, but still falls short of exempting commercial mortgages and similar credit from data collection. 

  • Lower Revenue Threshold: The CFPB has proposed to lower the small business revenue threshold from $5 million to $1 million in gross annual revenue.
  • Higher Institutional Loan Threshold: The CFPB has recommended making some changes to the definition of covered financial institution, including raising the origination threshold from 100 to 1,000 in each of the preceding two years.
  • Multifamily loans continue to be excluded from 1071 reporting.

CREFC argues that as reflected in both the federal regulatory framework and industry practice, CRE finance is fundamentally different from small-business lending. 

  • Bringing CRE loans within the scope of section 1071 would stretch the reporting regime beyond its intended focus on small-business credit.

We urge the CFPB, therefore, to exempt from section 1071 rulemaking credit secured by non-owner-occupied commercial real estate. 

  • Like other investment properties, these loans are underwritten based on the property’s cash flow and collateral value rather than the operating revenues of a business. 
  • The 1071 framework would be more coherent and targeted if it excluded CRE investment properties.
Please contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) with questions.

Contact 

Sairah Burki
Managing Director,
Head of Regulatory Affairs
703.201.4294
sburki@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC Responds to CFPB 1071 Re-Proposal
December 16, 2025
On December 15, CREFC submitted a response to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) 1071 re-proposal.

News

CREFC Opposes NYC COPA Bill

December 16, 2025

Ahead of New York City Council action on legislation that would mandate a time window to allow qualified nonprofits the right of first refusal on multifamily properties, CREFC urged the council to reject the bill that could exacerbate affordability issues in the city. 

Why it matters: As originally drafted, the Community Opportunity to Purchase Act (COPA) Int 0902-2024 would have applied an additional waiting period and processes to every multifamily building sale in the city. The updated version narrows the scope, but it could still have a negative impact.

What they’re saying: CREFC submitted a letter to council members highlighting its concerns with the legislation. Click here for the full letter. 
COPA’s extended mandatory waiting periods during a pending sale are likely to add substantial time, cost, and uncertainty to multifamily purchases, sales, and financings, which threatens to make New York City less able to attract private investment capital for housing investment and increase the costs of building or preserving housing of all types.

By the numbers: The bill originally applied to all NYC multifamily with three or more units. The Commissioner of Housing Preservation and Development would have regulatory and administrative responsibility for the program.

The amended version made the following updates:

  • Multifamily Building Criteria: The waiting periods would apply only to 4+ unit multifamily properties that also are experiencing distress or have expiring affordability protections. The bill lists the specific distress criteria (foreclosure, fine, or safety related), but the regulator would have the power to expand the criteria.
  • Vacant Lots Included: The COPA timelines also would apply to vacant lots zoned for multifamily.
  • Time Periods Adjusted: The time periods below can be extended by the commissioner. Overall, the minimum time could lengthen the sales timeline by at least six months.
    • Owners must file a notice of intent to sell at least five days before listing.
    • Nonprofits have 45 days to submit a statement of interest.
    • Interested nonprofits have 90 days to submit a bona fide offer.
    • The owner must act on the offer within 10 days. If accepted, the nonprofit has 30 days to execute a contract of sale.
    • If rejected, the owner must still notify the interested nonprofit if another buyer puts in an offer and then gives the interested nonprofit 15 days to execute a right of first refusal.
  • Penalty Increased: Noncompliant sales would be charged a penalty of 3% of the sales price. The fine was originally $30,000.

The big picture: While the changes narrowing the scope indicate that the bill was not necessarily on a glide path to enactment, the original legislation has nearly enough councilmembers as sponsors to override a mayoral veto.

  • The national conversation on housing affordability has also encouraged progressive advocates to work on advancing similar bills.
  • CREFC will continue to monitor the situation and alert members on any further developments.

Please contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions.

Contact  

David McCarthy
Managing Director,
Chief Lobbyist, Head of Legislative Affairs
202.448.0855
dmccarthy@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC Opposes NYC COPA Bill
December 16, 2025
Ahead of New York City Council action on legislation that would mandate a time window to allow qualified nonprofits the right of first refusal on multifamily properties.

News

CREFC Forums: Driving Consensus, Shaping the Future of CRE Finance

December 16, 2025 

The CRE Finance Council Forums are the essential market constituencies that drive innovation, best practices, and advocacy across the commercial real estate finance industry.

Comprising key sectors—including Issuers, Servicers, Portfolio Lenders, GSE/Multifamily Lenders, Alternative Lenders/High Yield Investors, Investment-Grade (IG) Bondholders, and B-Piece Investors—our Forums serve as vital hubs for interaction, addressing issues critical to each business sector, and working collaboratively toward solutions that benefit the entire market.

Our Collaborative Mission

Through the collective power of these specialized Forums, CREFC is positioned to:

  • Represent the diverse interests of all participants.
  • Manage complex and converging market views.
  • Advocate consensus positions directly to policymakers and lawmakers.
  • Educate members on emerging trends and regulatory shifts.
  • Develop market-leading best practices and standards.

Forum Leadership at CREFC Miami 2026

Forum Leadership is currently preparing to lead key panels at the CREFC Miami 2026 Conference from January 11-14, 2026. This is a prime opportunity for Forum members to influence the industry dialogue.

 

  • Shape the Agenda: If you are a Forum member and have critical topics or emerging issues that you believe must be covered during the conference panels, we strongly encourage you to submit your suggestions.
  • Action Item: Please contact your Forum Leaders or Rohit Narayanan at RNarayanan@crefc.org before January 5, 2026 to ensure your issues are considered for the January agenda.

Recent Forum Initiatives & Progress

What's next: Several Forums are actively working on high-impact projects to enhance market efficiency and transparency. 

Current initiatives include:

  • Pari-Passu Loan Reporting: The IG Bondholders and Servicer Forums are collaborating to significantly improve reporting standards for Pari-Passu loans, working in conjunction with the CREFC Investor Reporting Package (IRP) Committee.
  • Improving SASB Reporting: The IG Bondholders and Issuer Forums are finalizing a reporting enhancement to provide an Excel Annex or Accounting Tape for all SASB securitizations.
  • Special Servicing Decision: The B-Piece Investors, Servicers, and Issuer Forums are discussing the classification of the determination that a "cash sweep period," "cash trap period" or similar term has terminated as a Special Servicing decision.

Get Involved Today!

The bottom line: If you are not yet leveraging the power of a CREFC Forum, now is the time to join the constituency that matches your professional profile and actively contributes to market progress.

  • Join a Forum: Match your expertise and join a Forum here.
  • Questions/Suggestions: For any follow-up questions or suggestions on Forum activities, please contact Rohit Narayanan.

Contact 

Rohit Narayanan
Managing Director,
Industry Initiatives
646.884.7569
rnarayanan@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC Forums: Driving Consensus, Shaping the Future of CRE Finance
December 16, 2025
The CRE Finance Council Forums are the essential market constituencies that drive innovation, best practices, and advocacy across the commercial real estate finance industry.

News

Congressional Retirements

December 16, 2025

By the Numbers. A large and growing number of members of Congress will not seek reelection to their current seats in 2026. As of today, 50 members have announced retirement or a run for higher office. 

  • To date, retirement announcements are outpacing congressional cycles going back to 2018, a year that saw mass retirements among Republicans and a blue wave in the subsequent November elections.
  • Between the House and Senate, 27 Republicans have announced their retirement compared to 23 Democrats. Some are retiring outright, while others are running for Senate, Governor, or other offices. 

House

Of the 42 U.S. House incumbents who are not seeking re-election:

  • Fifteen U.S. House incumbents — ten Democrats and five Republicans — are retiring from public office.
  • Twenty- Seven U.S House incumbents- nine Democrats and eighteen Republicans are not seeking re-election to run for a mix of Senate, Governor, State Attorney General, and County Judge.

Senate

Of the eight U.S. Senate incumbents who are not seeking re-election:

  • Seven—four Democrats and three Republicans—are retiring from public office.
  • One Republican is running for governor.

The result is significant turnover across both chambers. Republicans account for a larger share of departures, driven heavily by House members running for higher office, while Democratic turnover skews more toward outright retirements among senior lawmakers. 

What's next: In the near future, Speaker Johnson has a different issue to deal with, and that is his current majority. 

  • As Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene announced her resignation effective on January 5, 2026, the GOP will have a 219-213 majority, a two seat majority. 
  • If any other members resign or die over the next year, Johnson’s math will get even tighter, making even procedural votes difficult.

Bottom line: There is a slim but real chance that Johnson could lose his speakership and the GOP could possibly lose the majority prior to the 2026 elections, as there are more retirements expected. 

In any case, it's looking more favorable for Democrats to take control of the House in just eleven months.

 

Please contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with questions.

Contact  

James Montfort
Manager,
Government Relations
202.448.0857
jmontfort@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Congressional Retirements
December 16, 2025
A large and growing number of members of Congress will not seek reelection to their current seats in 2026.

News

CREFC Supports House Financial Services Markup on Housing Supply 

December 16, 2025

Today and tomorrow, the House Financial Services Committee will conduct a two-day markup of various bills, including bipartisan housing supply legislation.

Why it matters: The Senate previously passed its own bipartisan housing legislation, but Republican House leaders rejected the bill as part of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). 

  • Last week Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R-AR) and Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-CA) introduced the Housing for the 21st Century Act, which packages together dozens of bipartisan housing bills focused on supply. 

What they’re saying: The bipartisan House legislation on housing supply highlights the broad concerns on housing affordability and how boosting supply is essential. 

Go deeper: The Housing for the 21st Century Act focuses on boosting housing supply by reducing burdensome regulation, incentivizing local reforms that allow for greater housing production, and modernizes standards for housing production and support. 

  • Click here for the text of the bill. Click here for a one-pager. Click here for a section-by-section.
  • Click here for our coverage of last week’s housing markup, which covered many of bills included in the new legislation. 

What’s next: After the markup, the full House will likely consider the housing package in early 2026 as part of a continued focus on affordability. 

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions.

Contact 

David McCarthy
Managing Director,
Chief Lobbyist, Head of Legislative Affairs
202.448.0855
dmccarthy@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC Supports House Financial Services Markup on Housing Supply
December 16, 2025
Today and tomorrow, the House Financial Services Committee will conduct a two-day markup of various bills, including bipartisan housing supply legislation.

News

House Committee to Consider 15c2-11 Fix Bill

December 16, 2025

The House Financial Services committee will consider legislation that would permanently exempt fixed-income securities from unnecessary and duplicative information requirements under SEC Rule 15c2-11.

  • The bill H.R. 3959, the Protecting Private Job Creators Act, will be considered by the full committee this week. 
  • Click here for more background on the 15c2-11 issue for CMBS.

Why it matters: The SEC has issued exemptive relief and a no-action letter for public and private fixed-income securities after a 2021 staff interpretation said the rule, originally finalized in 1971, required broker-dealers to verify certain public information.

  • CREFC continues to seek a permanent solution that clarifies the so-called penny stock rule does not apply to fixed-income securities, as future SEC leaders could easily rescind the exemptive relief and no-action letter.
  • In June, Congressman Troy Downing (R-MT-02) and Congressman Cleo Fields (D-LA-06) introduced H.R. 3959, the Protecting Private Job Creators Act, which would exempt all fixed-income securities, including public fixed-income securities and 144A bonds.
  • The legislation would provide a statutory basis for relief. The SEC could also conduct a rulemaking to clarify the fixed-income treatment.

What they’re saying: CREFC and 10 other trade organizations endorsed the legislation this summer and urged Congress to pass it.

Contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) or David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions.

Contact 

Sairah Burki
Managing Director,
Head of Regulatory Affairs
703.201.4294
sburki@crefc.org

David McCarthy
Managing Director,
Chief Lobbyist, Head of Legislative Affairs
202.448.0855
dmccarthy@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
House Committee to Consider 15c2-11 Fix Bill
December 16, 2025
The House Financial Services committee will consider legislation that would permanently exempt fixed-income securities from unnecessary and duplicative information requirements under SEC Rule 15c2-11.

News

Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

December 16, 2025

Economic Data & Labor Market

  • Student loan crisis deepens: Over nine million student loan borrowers have missed payments since late payments began counting toward delinquency in September 2024, and balances 30+ days past due have doubled since pandemic forbearance began. FSOC flagged student loans as "a notable exception" to low household default rates. TransUnion's Charlie Wise said, 

They just don't have the money… That speaks more broadly to some of the weaknesses that we've seen in the jobs market for recent grads.
  • Jobless claims whipsawed on holiday noise: Initial claims surged 44,000 to 236,000—the biggest jump since March 2020—but followed the lowest reading in three years during Thanksgiving week. Navy Federal's Heather Long: 
Smoothing it out, this still looks like an economy averaging 215,000 to 220,000 new jobless claims a week. That's not a cause for concern.
  • Household formation slumps to four-year low: Census data show new formations have dropped by more than half since 2022. Bloomberg Economics attributes the decline to high housing costs, a softening jobs market, and immigration restrictions—conditions that are unfavorable for housing construction, as new households drive demand for new homes.

Federal Reserve Policy

  • Fed cuts to three-year low amid discord: The FOMC lowered rates 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%—the third consecutive cut—but three voters dissented (the most since 2019): Goolsbee and Schmid wanted no change; Trump ally Miran pushed for 50 bps. Six more officials registered "shadow dissents" via the dot plots.
  • Powell signals high bar for further cuts: Rates are "now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves." The median dot projects just one 25 bp cut in 2026. Powell acknowledged tension: "Where the difference is, is how you weigh those risks."
  • Inflation hawk sounds the alarm: Kansas City's Schmid, who dissented against the cut, argued inflation remains too high, while the economy shows continued momentum. He warned:
Any increase in inflation uncertainty could unfortunately reverse some of these gains, potentially increasing long-term interest rates, including on U.S. government debt.
  • $40 billion T-bill program signals liquidity concerns: Just weeks after halting QT, the Fed announced aggressive short-term Treasury purchases starting December 12. Powell stressed the bond purchases were not part of the Fed's monetary policy mix and did not mark a return to QE. BNP Paribas' Calvin Tse: 
This is very reminiscent of 2019 where the Fed overshot by reducing the balance sheet too much. This is the Fed saying that they may have overshot a little bit.
  • Regional presidents reappointed—crisis averted for now: The Fed Board unanimously approved reappointments of 11 regional presidents more than 11 weeks ahead of the March 1 deadline—an unusually early action that allayed concerns Trump allies might block hawkish voices. Bloomberg Economics: the vote "eliminates one worst-case scenario for Fed independence." 
  • Fed chair race: Trump wants consultation rights: Trump told the WSJ that Warsh and Hassett are his top choices, and he expects the next chair to "consult" with him on rates: "I think my role should be at least that of recommending." He wants rates at "1% and maybe lower than that." JPMorgan's Dimon signaled support for Warsh while noting Hassett would likely cut faster.

Treasury Yields & Bond Markets

  • 10-year Treasury ends week higher despite "dovish" cut: The benchmark yield finished at 4.18%, up from 4.14% last week, even as the Fed delivered what markets saw as a dovish quarter-point reduction. The 2-year fell 4 bps to 3.52%; the 30-year rose 5 bps to 4.84%, a three-month high. Apollo's Sløk: 
This pattern of rising long-term interest rates is highly unusual when we look at historical reaction during [past] Fed cutting cycles.
  • Silver's parabolic rise reflects multiple drivers: Spot silver hit a record ~$64-$65/oz late this week before pulling back to ~$62–$63 into Friday's close. It's up ~110% YTD, outpacing gold's ~60% gain. Germany postponed two Christmas-season silver coin issues after the metal value exceeded face value. While debasement/fiscal-dominance narratives are part of the story, this week's leg higher was also driven by safe-haven flows and tight fundamentals (multi-year supply deficits, strong industrial demand).
  • Dollar weakness expected in 2026: Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley forecast the dollar will resume its slide as the Fed eases, while other central banks hold or hike rates. Morgan Stanley's David Adams sees "ample room for markets to price in a deeper cutting cycle," with a potential 5% drop in first-half 2026.
  • Income investors face "great squeeze": The era of easy 5%+ yields on short-term Treasuries is ending. Dividend yields on global equities remain near 2002 lows; IG credit spreads hover above multi-decade tights. BlackRock's Turner: the Fed cut "is a reminder that today's yields may not always be available."

CRE Finance Market Implications

  • Deal volume turns negative for first time in two years: October logged $24.4 billion—roughly 70% of October 2019—but posted the first YoY decline since early 2024. Moody's Kevin Fagan: high borrowing costs are "stretching out what was supposed to be a U-shaped recovery, flattening the bottom." Multifamily is down 27% YoY; hotels the only gainer (+6%).
  • Data center boom raises bubble concerns: Oaktree's Howard Marks: "Some data centers may be rendered uneconomic, and some owners may go bankrupt. We'll see which lenders maintain discipline." At least $175 billion in data center credit deals have been struck this year; borrowers are reportedly seeking loans for 150% of construction costs in some cases. There are growing concerns that the flood of capital may be leading to lax underwriting, with risks being sliced and diced into opaque securitizations.
  • Irvine Co.'s San Diego exit sends ominous signal: Donald Bren's exit from the downtown San Diego office market serves as a bellwether for broader distress. Irvine sold its last downtown tower for more than 50% below its purchase price, signaling a belief that high vacancy rates (now over 35%) are a long-term structural issue rather than a cyclical dip.
  • Household formation collapse threatens multifamily demand: Formations at four-year lows have direct implications for apartment absorption. A Harvard study projected that 860,000 new homes would be needed annually through 2035—but assumed stable immigration. As formations collapse, multifamily lenders should stress-test their absorption assumptions.
  • Student loan crisis ripples into housing: Over 9 million delinquent borrowers face credit score drops of 74–177 points, pushing many below mortgage qualification thresholds. For multifamily and SFR lenders, this creates bifurcated demand: renters who can't transition to ownership but may struggle with rising rents.

You can download CREFC’s one-page MarketMetrics, which includes statistics covering the economy and the CRE debt capital markets, here.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

Contact 

Raj Aidasani
Managing Director, Research
646.884.7566
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Economy, the Fed, and Rates…
December 16, 2025
Over nine million student loan borrowers have missed payments since late payments began counting toward delinquency in September 2024, and balances 30+ days past due have doubled since pandemic forbearance began.

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