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Housing Bill in Limbo After Congress Passes and President Declines to Sign

June 30, 2026

As we covered last week, the revised 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) passed the Senate by a vote of 85-5 and the House 358-32. 

• However, President Trump abruptly canceled a June 24 signing ceremony and said he would not sign the bill until the Senate passed the SAVE America Act.
• Click here for our previous coverage on the legislation.

Why it matters: Trump was expected to sign the bill, but he posted on social media several times that the bill was written by Democrats and then declined to sign as a pressure tactic on the Senate to pass the election-related legislation. 

• Constitutionally, Trump has 10 days (excluding Sundays) to sign or veto the bill, otherwise it will become law on July 9. The House “presented” the bill to the President on Monday, which started the 10-day clock. 
• President Trump has not threatened to veto the bill. If he did, 2/3 of each chamber would have to vote to override the bill to enact it. 
• While H.R. 6644 passed each chamber above the 2/3 threshold, a veto override would not be guaranteed. Many Republicans would likely balk at overriding the President on this issue. 
  

Go deeper: The bill still contains a section that seeks to ban large institutional investors from owning more than 350 single-family homes.

• Click here for a more detailed analysis of the SFR provision.
• The latest version of the SFR section is unchanged from what the House passed in May. Build-to-rent is intended to be exempt from the ban and it does not include a seven-year divestment mandate.
• While the ban includes several exemptions and is not intended to require large institutional investors to sell their current holdings, industry questions remain about the operational aspects of the law.

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions.

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CRE CLO Investor Reporting Update

June 30, 2026

CREFC held a highly engaged, roundtable meeting during the CREFC Annual Conference in New York City to address evolution and standardization across CRE Collateralized Loan Obligation (CRE CLO) reporting. The session, which brought together over 120 market participants, focused on driving enhanced transparency and assessing the structural deployment of CREFC’s Collateral Manager Data Report (CMDR). 

The discussion centered on several critical updates, market adoption metrics, and forward-looking data initiatives:

• Accelerating Adoption of the CMDR: Market implementation of the CMDR has demonstrated industry-wide momentum. Originally launched in October 2025 to introduce a standardized reporting framework for transitional assets, the report has quickly established wide adoption. Multiple collateral managers have chosen to retroactively implement CMDR reporting frameworks for legacy, older-vintage CRE CLO transactions. Currently, over 70% of all CRE CLOs issued since January 2024 are compliant with this reporting standard.
• Industry Feedback Solicitation: While CREFC is highly encouraged by the strong institutional adoption of the CMDR to date, the goal is to make the CREFC CMDR a market standard. To ensure the reporting adapts to changing credit environments, CREFC is actively soliciting industry feedback. Participants who wish to suggest data field refinements, technical modifications, or structural changes to the current report are strongly encouraged to submit their recommendations directly to CREFC.
• Ongoing Dialogue on Servicer Financial Reporting: The roundtable engaged in a detailed discussion regarding methods to improve and accelerate the throughput of property-level financial reporting spread by servicers. While participants did not establish immediate consensus or produce specific document recommendations during the session, the dialogue underscored a shared industry desire for greater data consistency. CREFC remains committed to actively engaging with collateral managers, servicers, and investors over the coming months to develop practical solutions that reduce reporting friction and heighten overall secondary market transparency.
  

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Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

June 30, 2026

Economic Data & Labor Market

• May PCE ran hot, but lower energy prices point to June disinflation. Headline PCE rose 4.1% year-over-year (from 3.8%), the fastest since April 2023, while core held firm at 3.4% (from 3.3%); monthly readings were 0.45% headline and 0.32% core. The acceleration was concentrated in services – portfolio-management fees, air transportation, and healthcare drove almost two-thirds of monthly core – while core goods fell 0.1%. With gasoline down more than 60 cents a gallon since the Hormuz scare eased, headline inflation has likely peaked, but the services core is too firm for the Fed to claim progress.
• Consumers keep spending, and the alarming Q1 revision is narrower than it looks. Real spending rose 0.3% in May with the saving rate at 3.0%, and real disposable income turned positive for the first time this year. First-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.1% from 1.6%, but real consumer spending was cut to 0.5% from 1.4% – the weakest since the pandemic. Bloomberg Economics attributes the markdown almost entirely to two idiosyncratic categories (investment advice and Iran-war-related foreign travel) and still expects 2Q real spending to rebound near 2.5%.
• Labor stays firm enough to keep hike risk alive. Bloomberg Economics looks for a 200k June payroll print on Thursday – well above the 113k consensus and a third straight strong report – with unemployment holding at 4.3%. Beneath the headline, May JOLTS openings are seen falling nearly 300k to 7.33 million, a cooler but still above-1.0 vacancy-to-unemployed ratio. A healthy wage number would harden the case for a hike later this year.
• AI is showing up as inflation first – and part of it may be a measurement artifact. Memory-chip scarcity pushed PPI for electronics up 27% in May, and Apple and Microsoft have already raised hardware prices. But Bloomberg Economics estimates that correcting a CPI/PCE definitional mismatch on storage media lowers six-month annualized core PCE by roughly 0.3 point – meaning the Fed’s preferred gauge likely overstates underlying inflation at the margin. The signal: AI capex is adding demand and input-cost pressure now, with the disinflationary payoff still years away.

Federal Reserve Policy

• One month in, markets have so far validated Warsh’s price-stability pivot. Ten-year breakevens have dropped from above 2.5% in mid-May to about 2.2%, the lowest in over a year, and long-end yields have eased even as short rates price hikes – the reduced-guidance regime set at his June debut (shortened statement, no chair dot, an explicit “deliver price stability” pledge) trading forward guidance for inflation-fighting credibility. The open question is how much further he takes it.
• The market prices tightening risk but has trimmed the most aggressive bets. Nine of nineteen policymakers penciled at least one 2026 hike in the June projections, and swaps imply roughly 34 basis points of tightening by December (down from 36 after the PCE relief), with the odds of a July move around one in three. Barkin called inflation “too high” while flagging tariff and oil relief ahead; Kashkari said broad-based pressure led him to pencil one hike, though he is “not in a rush.” The base case is an extended hold unless core cools convincingly.
• Less information flow is itself a risk. Warsh’s skepticism of the dot plot, the SEP, and frequent Fed communication could thin the guidance markets rely on; Bloomberg Economics notes that two-year Treasury repricing has historically run far larger around projection-bearing meetings than statement-only ones, because the SEP conveys real news. Stripping it out widens risk premia and raises the cost of hedging and rate execution for CRE even without a hike.

Treasury Yields & Bond Markets

• Treasuries rallied across the curve, led by the front end. Per the attached Bloomberg table, the 2-year fell to 4.09% (–9 bps), the 10-year to 4.37% (–8 bps), and the 30-year to 4.86% (–4 bps), with the 3-month pinned at 3.74%. Cooler-than-feared PCE, sub-$73 Brent, and trimmed hike bets drove the move.
• Big managers are crowding into the “belly.” Capital Group, Insight Investment, Natixis, Pimco, and PGIM all favor the 5-year area as a compromise between volatile front-end policy risk and long-end fiscal and inflation risk – a maturity that benefits if hike risk fades without taking full duration. The signal is selectivity: investors are positioning for two-sided rate risk rather than buying duration outright.

Dollar, Commodities & Markets

• Oil relief is real but not fully settled. Brent has retraced to the low $70s and traffic is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, but the US-Iran truce remains fragile – shipping continued even after an attack on a container vessel prompted some owners to review exit plans. The market has moved from crisis pricing to deal-risk pricing; gasoline is down sharply but still roughly a dollar a gallon above pre-war levels.
• The dollar’s driver has shifted from energy to the Fed. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman have turned constructive, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up about 2% in June on Warsh’s hawkish credibility, US economic resilience, and a widening rate gap as other central banks pause. A firmer dollar restrains some import-price pressure but reinforces tighter global financial conditions.
• Equity leadership is rotating as AI valuations get questioned. The S&P 500 slipped to 7,354 from 7,501 and the Nasdaq to 25,298 from 26,518, while the Dow rose to 51,876 – a rotation out of chipmakers (the semiconductor index fell more than 5% in a single session) into broader cyclicals, with the equal-weighted S&P at a record. The move reflects rising sensitivity to AI infrastructure costs, return timelines, and higher discount rates – the same financial-conditions channel that matters for CRE.
• Freight and tariffs remain live goods-inflation channels. Container rates on Asia-US routes have surged (China to US East Coast up 62% in a month) as importers front-load ahead of a late-July tariff round on roughly 60 countries, and tariff-refund accounting has become an earnings-quality issue for consumer firms. Lower oil helps, but shipping and trade policy keep upward pressure on goods prices and margins.

CRE Finance Market Implications

• Fixed-rate borrowers get relief at the margin, not a reopening. A 10-year at 4.37% and 30-year at 4.86% improve on May’s highs but not enough to materially change refinance math for many 2026–2027 maturities. Debt yields, DSCRs, and exit-cap assumptions stay under pressure, and the long end’s term-premium risk caps how far benchmark costs can fall.
• Floating-rate borrowers still have no SOFR relief. One-month Term SOFR is 3.65%, essentially unchanged from 3.64%, and with the Fed on hold and hike risk alive, bridge and transitional borrowers cannot count on near-term coupon relief. The 3-month bill pinned at 3.74% is the clearest sign that floating costs are stuck until the Fed’s reaction function shifts.
• Rate volatility is now a CRE execution risk in its own right. Thinner Fed guidance, a contested SEP/dot-plot framework, and two-sided front-end pricing raise the odds of abrupt Treasury moves – which matters for CMBS execution, rate locks, loan sizing, hedging costs, and borrower timing as much as the level of rates does. Wider rate uncertainty is a cost even in a no-hike scenario.
• The bright spots stay narrow, and the AI risk channel runs through financial conditions. Construction spending remains concentrated in data centers and power infrastructure while most other residential and nonresidential building stays soft; AI-linked product benefits directly, but the broader risk to CRE runs through higher hurdle rates and compressed margins. 
  

You can download CREFC's one-page MarketMetrics, which includes statistics covering the economy and the CRE debt capital markets, here.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Supreme Court Frees Trump to Fire Independent Regulators, but Shields the Fed

June 30, 2026

Yesterday, the Supreme Court handed President Trump sweeping power to remove independent regulators at will, while carving out a pointed exception that protects the Federal Reserve, including, for now, Fed governor Lisa Cook.

Why it matters: The split rulings mark a shift of power from Congress to the president, giving the White House more direct control over more than two dozen agencies that oversee consumers, workers, the environment and nuclear safety.

Driving the news: In a 6-3 ruling, the court cleared the way for Trump to fire Rebecca Kelly Slaughter, a Democratic FTC commissioner, despite a law allowing removal only for "inefficiency, neglect of duty or malfeasance in office."

• The decision formally overrules Humphrey's Executor v. United States, the 1935 precedent that for 90 years protected FTC commissioners and similar regulators from being fired over policy disagreements. "If anything more is left of Humphrey's, we overrule it," Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority.
• The court found the FTC's for-cause protection contrary to the Constitution's separation of powers. The three liberal justices dissented.

Yes, but: In a separate 5-4 decision, the court blocked Trump from immediately ousting Cook, ruling she was entitled to notice and a chance to respond before being fired, though not a full trial or a meeting with Trump himself.

• The majority was an unusual coalition: Roberts and fellow conservative Brett Kavanaugh joined the three liberals; the other four conservatives dissented.

The removal power compounds executive orders Trump has issued to pull regulatory rulemaking toward the White House and Treasury.

• His February 2025 "Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies" order requires independent agencies to submit major rules to the White House budget office (OMB/OIRA) for review before publication, with a carve-out for the Fed's monetary-policy functions.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled Treasury intends to play a bigger role in bank regulation, with the prudential regulators following his lead.

Catch up quick: Trump announced Cook's firing last August, the first time in the central bank's history a president had tried to remove a board member.

• He cited allegations from FHFA Director Bill Pulte that Cook claimed two homes as her primary residence on 2021 mortgage paperwork to get better loan terms. Cook has denied any wrongdoing. 
• A federal law lets the president remove Fed members only "for cause." Two lower courts had blocked the firing while her suit proceeded.

The bottom line: The court gave Trump broad new authority over the regulatory state. Paired with his executive orders steering rulemaking through Treasury and the White House, the executive branch now reaches deeper into how agencies are run and how their rules are made. 

• We might also see less stability in bipartisan commissions such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) if presidents can fire commissioners at will. This could lead to greater regulatory volatility across future administrations.
• The Fed, for now, sits in a protected class of its own.
  

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Bank Capital Proposals Draw Broad Industry Support with Targeted Pushback on Key Provisions

June 30, 2026

As covered in last week’s Policy & Capital Market’s Briefing, on June 18, CREFC submitted its response, as well as the joint real estate response, to the banking agencies’ Basel capital proposals. 

Given the significance of these proposals for CRE finance, CREFC surveyed nearly 25 comment letters from across the banking, housing, and capital markets landscape. 

Most of the commentary signaled strong directional support for the proposals but also included near-universal pushback on several key provisions.

• The proposed expansion of "commitment" elicited arguments that it would depart from established legally-binding-obligation standards, inject ambiguity, and force banks to hold capital against arrangements where no legal obligation to fund exists. 
  • CREFC and the joint CRE trade associations added a CRE-specific dimension: warehouse facilities are typically uncommitted, secured, and underwritten advance-by-advance. 
  • Several banks stated that warehouse lending supports over 60% of single-family mortgage originations and that punitive capital treatment would shrink bank participation.
  • A few trades argued that the agencies' failure to quantify the impact or articulate a rationale for the change raised concerns under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA). 
• The agencies' proposal to require securitization performance depend "solely" on underlying exposures drew broad opposition.
  • Banks and trades warned the change would disqualify common securitization structures, including warehouse facilities, that include narrow, ancillary sponsor support, with at least one stating that it would violate the APA's change-in-position doctrine. 
• While the agencies’ proposed removal of the mortgage servicing assets (MSA) deduction from capital was welcome across most commenters, a broad coalition also called for reducing the 250% MSR risk weight, with most converging on 100% as appropriate. 
  • CREFC noted that CRE MSRs have additional stability features including yield maintenance, defeasance, and lockout provisions that further dampen volatility. 
  • The FHLB of Chicago stated that the 250% weight has deterred banks from originating and retaining mortgage servicing, contributing to the migration of servicing to nonbanks over the past decade.
• Banks and trades also argued that LTV-based CRE risk weights available for the largest banks should be extended to Category III and IV banks and smaller institutions under the Standardized Approach.
  • The proposed modest reduction from 100% to 95% for standardized-approach banks doesn't reflect the same risk-sensitivity principles applied to residential real estate across both proposals. 
  • One bank warned that concentrating capital relief at the largest institutions risks "discouraging traditional commercial lending and undermining competitive equity across the banking system."

A few other CREFC recommendations also received independent support from other commenters, including:

• Treating qualifying LIHTC investments as public sector entity (PSE) exposures with a risk-weight of 20%, which would increase liquidity for an important affordable housing financing tool.
• Capping high-LTV CRE risk weight at 100% and reversing the current counterintuitive result where the risk weight for 80%+ LTV cash-flow-dependent CRE would be higher than the maximum for unsecured corporate exposures. 
• Treating Fannie Mae DUS loss-sharing exposures as PSE exposures, as this would align GSE exposure treatment with the credit quality and government support afforded the GSEs at least while they are under conservatorship.

Yes, but: A group of prominent academics argued the proposals would "materially lower capital requirements for the largest and most systemically important banks" and, combined with enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio changes and stress test modifications, reduce the resilience of the U.S. banking system. Additionally:

• Better Markets called for the agencies to withdraw and repropose several provisions, arguing the agencies lack the loan-level data to support LTV-sensitive risk weights. 
• The CFA Institute's Systemic Risk Council argued that eliminating the standardized approach floor for Category I and II banks is "clearly inconsistent" with the Collins Amendment to Dodd-Frank.

What's next: The agencies are now in the review-and-synthesis phase. 

• A final rule could come as early as late 2026, with compliance dates phased in thereafter. 
• CREFC will continue to monitor developments and engage with agency staff through the finalization process.
  

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CRE Securitized Debt Update

June 30, 2026

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

Two transactions totaling $2.1 billion priced last week:

1. BANK5 2026-5YR23, a $1.174 billion conduit backed by 33 fixed-rate, five-year loans secured by 167 properties. Using Fitch's classification, the largest property types are office (32.5%), multifamily (16.3%), retail (12%), industrial (11%), hotel (9.3%) and manufactured housing (8.2%); top states are California (25.4%), New York (18.8%) and Texas (12.2%). The largest loan is the Mountain Industrial Portfolio, a $90 million trust portion of a $1.62 billion loan to Industrial Logistics Properties Trust on 90 industrial properties – the only loan in the pool with a standalone investment-grade credit opinion (Fitch 'A-sf'). Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo were the loan sellers.
2. DWIGHT 2026-FL2, a $910 million managed CRE CLO sponsored by Dwight Mortgage Trust. The pool is backed by 24 floating-rate loans secured by 24 all-multifamily properties – $858.6 million funded at closing plus $51.4 million of ramp-up collateral – with a 30-month reinvestment period and 120-day ramp-up. Fitch classifies the collateral as 98.1% multifamily and 1.9% student housing; top states are New York (27.4%), California (16.5%), New Jersey (10.8%), Florida (9.5%) and South Carolina (8.7%). The five largest loans – Line and Low, 261 and 315 Grand Concourse, Sereno, Seventeen Hundred and Redlands Lawn and Tennis Club – account for 40.8% of the pool.

By the numbers: YTD 2026 private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totaled $94.4 billion, up 23% from the $76.6 billion for the same period last year.

Spreads Hold Steady

• Conduit AAA and A-S spreads were unchanged at +70 and +100, respectively.
• Conduit AA and A spreads were unchanged at +130 and +175, respectively.
• Conduit BBB- spreads were unchanged at +415.
• SASB AAA spreads were unchanged in a range of +85 to +170, depending on property type.
• CRE CLO AAA and BBB- spreads were unchanged at +130/+135 (static/managed) and +300 (static/managed), respectively.

Agency CMBS

• Agency issuance totaled $1.9 billion last week, comprising a $965.4 million Freddie K transaction, $526.1 million in Fannie DUS, $400.1 million in Ginnie transactions, and $31.8 million in Freddie Multi-PC transactions.
• Agency issuance for YTD 2026 totaled $84.7 billion, 27% higher than the $66.6 billion recorded for the same period in 2025.
  

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Mamdani-Endorsed Congressional Candidates Triumph in Primaries

June 30, 2026

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani significantly expanded his political influence last week after all three of his endorsed Democratic congressional candidates prevailed in New York's primary elections, including two victories over incumbent members of Congress. 

Why it matters: The results underscore the growing strength of the city's progressive wing and could have meaningful implications for the expansion of the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) representation in Congress. 

• The highest-profile upset came in Manhattan and Brooklyn, where New York City Comptroller Brad Lander defeated Rep. Dan Goldman. 
• In Brooklyn's open 7th Congressional District, State Assembly member Claire Valdez secured the Democratic nomination. 
• While in Upper Manhattan and the Bronx, Darializa Avila Chevalier unseated five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat in another surprise. 

In each race, Mamdani's endorsement was viewed as a significant asset for candidates running on affordability, housing, and progressive economic platforms. The victories represent an early test of Mamdani's political capital following his election as mayor. 

The bottom line: The growth of this wing of the party could cause headaches for Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) if the Democrats are to retake control of the House. 

• Jeffries will have to contest with a larger group of progressives dubbed “the Squad 2.0” who will be eager to push their policy positions and grow their influence after endorsements from Mamdani and national political recognition.
• The current “Squad” in Congress stands at seven members.
  

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House Passes TRIA Reauthorization; Senate Tees Up Consideration

June 30, 2026

Congress continues to make steady bipartisan progress toward reauthorizing the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program (TRIA) well ahead of its December 31, 2027 expiration.

• The House passed H.R. 7128 on Monday by a vote of 373-15. The bill would extend the program for seven years, through 2034.
• CREFC supports the House and Senate efforts to reauthorize the program in advance. 

Why it matters: The TRIA program, originally enacted in the wake of 9-11, provides a federal backstop to losses from significant terrorist attacks. 

• Terrorism risk insurance remains a critical underwriting requirement across CRE finance. Its long-term reauthorization will provide the certainty needed by lenders, borrowers, investors, and the broader capital markets.
• CREFC and other industry partners have been meeting with lawmakers and staff on the importance of maintaining the existing TRIA framework. 

In the House, the passage of the TRIA Program Reauthorization Act of 2026 under suspension of the rules follows strong bipartisan support in the House Financial Services Committee earlier this year. 

• H.R. 7128 would extend the program for seven years, through 2034, while preserving TRIA's longstanding public-private partnership and incorporating several targeted technical refinements.

Momentum is also building in the Senate. Earlier this spring, Senators David McCormick (R-PA), Tina Smith (D-MN), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) introduced S. 4395, a clean, bipartisan seven-year TRIA reauthorization bill.

• Most recently, those same provisions were offered as Amendment #5879 to the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). 
• The Senate often considers standalone legislation in “must-pass” packages, as the chamber’s looser floor rules lead to longer legislative processes. 

CREFC will continue working with congressional offices and coalition partners to advance long-term reauthorization this year, ensuring continued certainty for commercial real estate finance markets and avoiding unnecessary disruption as the current authorization approaches its expiration.

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions.

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CREFC's May 2026 Monthly CMBS Loan Performance Report

June 29, 2026

CRE Finance Council has released a report on CMBS loan performance for May.* 
  
Key takeaways:
  
DELINQUENCY HOLDS FLAT AS LARGE OFFICE CURE PULLS SPECIAL SERVICING LOWER
  

• Overall CMBS delinquency edged up 1 bp to 7.55% in May, flat for a third straight month. Including performing matured balloons, the effective rate was 9.17%, a 162 bp gap that continues to signal refinancing friction. The seriously delinquent rate rose 3 bps to 7.30%.
• Newly delinquent volume totaled roughly $4.04B, with the five largest loans accounting for $1.86B. The mix was again maturity-default dominated: 70% were non-performing matured balloons, 28% were 30-days delinquent, and the balance was mostly foreclosure.
• Office delinquency declined 16 bps to 11.53%, and office special servicing (SS) fell 91 bps to 16.75%, led by One New York Plaza returning to the master servicer. Overall SS dropped 52 bps to 10.86% on that return plus denominator growth, though new transfers ($2.9B) still outpaced cures ($1.03B).
• Multifamily reversed April's spike, down 76 bps to 6.95%. Lodging fell 51 bps to 6.01%, retail rose 30 bps to 6.61%, and industrial jumped 35 bps to 1.31%.

*Source: Trepp. CMBS data in this report reflect a total outstanding balance of $644.1B: 52.1% ($335.4B) conduit CMBS, 47.9% ($308.7B) single-asset/single-borrower (SASB) CMBS.

Click here to download the full report. Contact Raj Aidasani for more information on CMBS loan performance. 

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