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Government Funding Update

January 6, 2026

With the January 30 funding deadline approaching, lawmakers have limited time to pass a spending deal to avert a partial shutdown. There are only twelve legislative days between now and January 30, when current funding runs out.

Why it matters: Nobody wants a repeat of the longest shutdown in US history from late last year, which set the record at 43 days. However, it is uncertain how quickly legislators will be able to agree on a deal before the end of the month.

What they’re saying: According to Politico, Leaders from both parties emphasized their support to works towards a deal last week. 

• “I don’t think either side wants to see that happen,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said of a shutdown next month. “I think that’s toxic for both parties.”
• “I don’t want to see another government shutdown,” Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), the number two Senate Democrat, said about leveraging that deadline to get a health care concession. “I’ve had enough of them.”

Go deeper: While negotiations continue on Capitol Hill, there is still no finalized funding agreement, and the legislative calendar leaves little margin for error. 

• Congress has only passed 3 of the 12 required appropriations bills: Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, Agriculture-FDA, and the Legislative Branch. These only cover a small slice of discretionary spending.
• On Monday, House and Senate appropriators release bipartisan, bicameral spending deals on three additional bills (“minibus”): Commerce-Justice-Science; Interior-Environment; and Energy-Water. The House is expected to vote on the minibus later this week. 
• Before the holidays, the Senate was close to passing a “minibus” package that would fund about two-thirds of discretionary spending, including major departments like Defense, Labor, HHS, Education, Justice, Transportation, and HUD. 
• Democrats pumped the brakes on the deal over Trump’s threat to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research Center in Colorado, seeing it as a warning sign about how funds might be used or ignored.

Bottom line: The majority of government funding is still unresolved, Congress will need to move fast to avoid another shutdown on January 30. 

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Financial Services Committee Advances Housing and 15c2-11 Bills 

January 6, 2026

The House Financial Services Committee advanced a housing supply package and a bill to codify fixed income exemptions for certain broker dealer reporting after a marathon markup session over Dec. 16-17. 

• The Housing for the 21st Century Act, which packages together dozens of bipartisan housing bills focused on supply, passed 50-1. Click here for more background on the bill.
• The 15c2-11 bill H.R. 3959, the Protecting Private Job Creators Act, passed 41-11 with 13 Democrats joining all Republicans to advance the bill. Click here for more background on the issue. 
• CREFC has supported both bills with letters and statements to the committee. 

Why it matters: The strong bipartisan support in committee will make passage on the House floor easier, especially given the continue political emphasis on affordability. 

What’s next: 

• The housing bill could potentially move on the “suspension calendar”, which requires a 2/3 majority for passage. Meanwhile, committee and floor leadership will negotiate a deal with the Senate, which had passed its own bill, the ROAD to Housing Act, in October. 
• The Projecting Private Job Creators Act could likely see a floor vote with other legislation from the markup. While Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-CA) opposed the legislation it its current form, the 75% vote margin gives a strong case for further action.

Please contact David McCarthy at dmccarthy@crefc.org with any questions.

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NYC COPA Bill Vetoed by Outgoing Mayor Adams

January 6, 2026

After a flurry of year-end activity, the New York City Council passed the Community Opportunity to Purchase Act (COPA), but Mayor Eric Adams vetoed the measure among his final official acts. 

Adams released a statement explaining his veto of 19 bills, including COPA: 

Why it matters: As originally drafted, COPA Int 0902-2024 would have applied an additional waiting period and processes to every multifamily building sale in the city. The bill saw several updates that narrowed the scope to distressed buildings and reduced the overall timeframe.

• CREFC submitted a letter to council members highlighting its concerns with the legislation. Click here for the full letter. 
• The bill passed on December 18 by 31-10 margin (not including seven abstaining and three absences), which is short of the 34 votes (2/3 threshold) to overcome a mayoral veto. However, new Mayor Zohran Mamdani has supported the legislation. 

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Regulatory Forecast for 2026

January 6, 2026

We are kicking off the new year with a CRE finance regulatory forecast. 

Overall themes from the first year of the second Trump administration will likely continue:

• Heightened role of executive branch (via Treasury) in regulatory policy;
• Deregulatory focus across all agencies; and
• Reduction of supervisory resources and in enforcement activities.

Who’s in charge? A year into this administration, agency heads are in place, albeit in some cases of very slimmed down leadership structures. See here for our Regulatory Tracker.

Key Areas for CREFC

Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFPB) Section 1071 

• At the tail-end of 2025, the CFPB extended compliance timing for Rule 1071 small business data collection requirements and then issued a scaled-back proposal that would narrow coverage and raise thresholds. See CREFC’s comment letter here. 
• 2026 will likely see the finalizing of scope and timing (post-proposal).

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 

• Continued push to rationalize regulations and allow for great market efficiencies. 
• CREFC led the effort to revisit Rule 17g-5’s ABS information-posting requirement and submitted to the SEC a Petition for Rulemaking. We will follow up with the SEC in the coming months. 
• CREFC submitted a response to the SEC’s ABS Concept Release. We urged reduction of undue reporting burdens, thereby improving the feasibility of registered conduit CMBS (e.g., cadence changes for significant obligor disclosures; restoring automatic 15(d) suspension under <300 holders). We expect the SEC to issue a formal proposal (or small sub-proposals) in 2026.
• CREFC continued to discuss Rule 15c2-11 with the SEC, advocating for a rulemaking to exclude fixed income from 15c2-11 requirements. The 2025 Unified Agenda of Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions states that the SEC will issue a 15c2-11 proposal in 2026.

Banking Agencies

• In 2025, the banking regulators focused on bank capital requirements (e.g., modifying the enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio for the G-SIBs, seeking to reduce stress-test volatility, and proposing an increase in asset thresholds for heightened regulatory standards.)
• We expect the release of a Basel 3 Endgame proposal very soon. CREFC will submit comments, focusing on implications for CRE Finance.

2026 promises to be another busy year on the regulatory front. Let us know if you would like to join any of the above advocacy efforts. 

Please contact Sairah Burki (SBurki@crefc.org) with any questions.

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CRE Securitized Debt Update

January 6, 2026

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

• As expected in a holiday-shortened week, no transactions priced. 
• By the numbers: Full-year 2025 private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totaled $156.4 billion, representing a 36% increase from the $114.7 billion recorded for full-year 2024.
• SASB hits a new record: The year-over-year increase in private-label issuance was helped by a record year for SASB, hitting $91.1 billion in 2025 and surpassing the previous record of $79.1 billion set in 2021.

Spreads Hold Steady

• Conduit AAA and A-S spreads were unchanged at +80 and +115.
• Conduit AA and A spreads were constant at +150 and +200.
• Conduit BBB- spreads held steady at +465. 
• SASB AAA spreads remained unchanged in a range of +113 to +136, depending on property type.
• CRE CLO AAA spreads were unchanged at +135/+140 (static/managed); BBB- spreads also held constant at +340 (static/managed).

Agency CMBS

• Agency issuance totaled $1.5 billion last week, comprising $1.3 billion in Fannie DUS and $127.2 million of Ginnie transactions.
• Agency issuance for 2025 totaled $158.2 billion, 27% higher than the $124.3 billion recorded for 2024.
  

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Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

January 6, 2026

Economic Data & U.S. Productivity

• U.S. Productivity Lead to Widen: Nearly 80% of economists surveyed by the FT expect the U.S. to maintain or expand its productivity advantage, driven by AI, deep capital markets, and lower energy costs. U.S. labor productivity rose 10% from 2019–2024, while the UK and the Eurozone stagnated.
• But 2025 was a Relative Disappointment: The MSCI USA (+16.3%) lagged the MSCI ACWI ex-US (+29.2%) by ~10 percentage points—the widest gap since 2009. The OECD downgraded 2026 U.S. growth to 1.7%, matching the broader average, as inflation projections worsened to 3%.
• Manufacturing Still Contracting: The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December. The measure has been below 50, which indicates contraction, for 10 straight months. Details were better than the headline: new orders improved to 47.7, employment rose to 44.9, and low customer inventories signal restocking ahead.
• Labor Market Strains: Unemployment hit 4.6% in November—a four-year high. Hiring has been tepid and concentrated in healthcare; ex-healthcare, employment actually declined in 2025. Trump’s claims of a native-born jobs boom are misleading—economists say the apparent gains reflect survey methodology rather than real job creation.
• Tax Stimulus Incoming: Trump’s tax package should deliver $30–100B in extra refunds in 1H26 (Goldman/Citi estimates) and boost GDP by ~0.3% via business investment incentives, per EY-Parthenon.

Federal Reserve Policy

• Deep Fissures at the Fed: December’s meeting featured the most dissent since 2019—three votes against the quarter-point cut to 3.50–3.75%. Several members warned easing could be “misinterpreted” as signaling weakness on inflation (PCE still at 2.8%).
• Modest Further Cuts Possible: Philly Fed’s Paulson sees “modest further adjustments” later in 2026 if inflation moderates, the labor market stabilizes, and growth hits ~2%. Tariffs may keep goods inflation elevated in 1H26.
• Powell Succession Looms: Trump is expected to name his pick “sometime in January.” Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner. Bond investors worry about a Fed that’s “more interventionist, more aggressive in rate-cutting, and more inclined to move on gut instinct.”
• Debt Risks Threaten Fed Independence: Former Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that mounting federal debt could force the Fed to prioritize keeping rates low to reduce government borrowing costs—even at the expense of controlling inflation. Trump has “vocally demanded” rate cuts to ease debt servicing. Debt-to-GDP is nearing 100%.
• Market vs. Fed: Traders price two to three cuts in 2026; the Fed’s dot plot projects just one. Hawkish regional presidents (Hammack, Logan, Kashkari) gain voting rights this year, which could constrain easing.

Treasury Yields & Bond Markets

• Yields Rising into 2026: The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to ~4.19% last week (+6 bps), snapping a two-week decline. The 30-year reached 4.87%—highest since September—as investors weigh whether Fed cuts could stoke inflation.
• Term Premium Elevated: The 10-year term premium hit 0.91 percentage points post- “Liberation Day”—highest since 2014—and remains elevated. Foreign official Treasury holdings fell $46 billion through October and now represent just ~13% of marketable securities, down from ~33% a decade ago.
• Best Year for Treasuries Since 2020: The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index returned 6.3% in 2025, with three Fed cuts since September driving short-end gains. Long maturities faced pressure from fiscal concerns and economic resilience.

Dollar & Currency Dynamics

• Dollar’s Worst Year Since 2017: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell about 9% in 2025, depreciating against all 16 major currencies. Deutsche Bank’s Saravelos called it “one of the worst years for dollar performance in the history of free-floating exchange rates.”
• Euro Surges: The euro gained nearly 14% to above $1.17—a level last seen in 2021. Wall Street expects $1.20 by year-end 2026 as divergent monetary policy (Fed cutting, ECB on hold) keeps pressure on the greenback.

CRE Finance Market Implications

• Financing Costs Elevated: With the 10-year at ~4.19% and elevated term premia, all-in CRE mortgage coupons remain in the mid-to-high-6% range. The steepening curve suggests long-end rates stay sticky even as the Fed eases.
• Cap-Rate Pressure Continues: If yields continue their volatile climb, investors will demand higher cap rates, pressuring valuations for office and weak-fundamental sectors. The 30-year yield at 4.87% is a warning sign for long-duration assets.
• Construction Labor Headwinds: Immigration curbs (579K deportations in 2025) are exacerbating construction labor shortages. Research shows that deporting low-skilled workers can reduce higher-skilled native employment in construction—a potential drag on new CRE development.
• Policy wildcards: The succession at the Fed (and the Administration’s stance toward aggressive cuts) injects uncertainty into the rate path, CMBS spread behavior, and bank risk appetite—key variables for 2026 maturities.
  

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

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CREFC's November 2025 Monthly CMBS Loan Performance Report

December 30, 2025

CRE Finance Council has released a report on CMBS loan performance for November.* 

• Conduit/SASB CMBS combined delinquency rate of 7.26%
  • Delinquency rate decreased 20 bps in November and has decreased only three other times in 2025 so far
  • On a YOY basis, the overall combined delinquency rate is up 86 bps (7.26% vs. 6.40% in November 2024)
• Serious distress edged lower: Loans 60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure/REO, or non-performing balloons registered 7%, down 1 bp on the month
• Read-through: November’s improvement was narrow (3 of 5 sectors declined) and partly mechanical—the outstanding CMBS balance rose ~$5.8B, which lifted the denominator and pulled the headline rate down. Watch lodging’s two-month re-acceleration and industrial’s second straight uptick (still low), while office remains elevated despite an 8 bp dip.
• Overall, November delinquency rate is still 306 bps below the 10.32% peak in June 2020 – the height of pandemic-related lockdowns

*Source: Trepp. CMBS data in this report reflect a total outstanding balance of $631.6B: 53.6% ($338.7B) conduit CMBS, 46.4% ($292.9B) single-asset/single-borrower (SASB) CMBS.

Click here to download the full report. Contact Raj Aidasani for more information on CMBS loan performance. 

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CREFC Set to Host Largest Gathering of Commercial Real Estate Finance Leaders Next Month in Miami

December 16, 2025

MIAMI, FL — December 16, 2025 — The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) will gather the commercial real estate finance industry's foremost leaders at its flagship CREFC Miami conference, January 11-14, 2026. Widely recognized as the largest and most influential event in commercial real estate finance, CREFC Miami brings together more than 4,000 industry leaders for four days of market insights, high-value connection-building, and forward-looking discussion. 

As the recognized voice of the commercial real estate finance industry, CREFC represents lenders, investors, servicers, issuers, and the full range of professionals powering the commercial real estate capital markets. CREFC plays a vital role in shaping industry standards, delivering trusted research and data, and advocating the policy and regulatory issues that matter most to market participants.

Renowned for its member-driven, content-focused programming, CREFC Miami is the one event that brings the entire CRE finance ecosystem together in one place. Whether attendees are focused on capital markets, CRE loan origination, credit, loan servicing, policy, or investment strategy, the conference offers an unmatched environment in which relationships are strengthened, ideas are exchanged, and the direction of the market comes into focus.

“Those in commercial real estate finance are entering 2026 with both caution and optimism, and CREFC Miami is where those perspectives come together,” said Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of CREFC. “Our conference delivers candid, member-driven dialogue that reflects real market conditions. This is where industry leaders gain clarity on emerging trends, share what they’re seeing on the ground, and prepare for the year ahead.”

Chris Voss, former Lead International Hostage Negotiator for the FBI and bestselling author of Never Split the Difference, will kick off the conference with the keynote session ─ "Tactical Empathy: Negotiation Secrets from an FBI Negotiator." As CEO of The Black Swan Group, Voss brings battle-tested strategies that empower executives to transform high-stakes standoffs into collaborative victories, a critical skillset as the commercial real estate sector navigates complex restructurings, uncertain capital markets, and approaching debt maturities. 

Scott Galloway, renowned entrepreneur and NYU Stern School of Business marketing professor, will share his annual predictions in a keynote session examining consumer, tech, and business trends that will have the biggest impact in 2026. Using data-informed insights, he will share his vision for the trends and opportunities that will define the year ahead and reflect on his previous year’s predictions.

Pendergast added, "CREFC Miami 2026 delivers precisely what our industry needs: keynote visionaries like Chris Voss and Scott Galloway unveiling high-stakes negotiation frameworks and market trends, paired with deep-dive sessions on today's most pressing industry issues: private credit's evolution, global capital flows, and transformative approaches to distressed office assets. Other sessions will unpack portfolio rebalancing tactics, alternative housing finance models, and data center capital demands.”

Key sessions at CREFC Miami include:

• Private Credit Playbook: Evolving Players in the Debt Stack
• Global Capital Flows: Navigating International Investments in U.S. Real Estate
• Industry Leaders Roundtable
• Portfolio Rebalancing Strategies: Loan Sales, Modifications, and Enforcement
• From Vacancy to Value: Repositioning, Financing and Opportunities in Distressed Office
• Beyond Traditional Multifamily: Exploring Alternative and Affordable Housing
• Powering Digital Infrastructure: Growing Demand for Data Center Capital
• A comprehensive lineup of Forums representing the various market constituents addressing key issues and trends
• Updates on CREFC’s research, policy/regulatory issues, and initiatives supporting transparency and best practices in CRE finance

Event Details: 

• When: January 11-14, 2026
• Where: Loews Miami Beach Hotel | 1601 Collins Avenue | Miami Beach, FL 33139
• Conference Program
• Registration 

About CREFC

The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) is the trade association for the nearly $6 trillion commercial real estate finance industry with a membership that includes approximately 400 companies and 19,000 individuals. Member firms include balance sheet and securitized lenders, loan and bond investors, private equity firms, servicers, rating agencies, and borrowers. For over 30 years, CREFC has promoted liquidity, transparency, and efficiency in the commercial real estate finance markets and acts as a legislative and regulatory advocate for the industry, playing a vital role in setting market standards and best practices and providing education for market participants. For more information visit www.crefc.org

Contact:
Mary Beth Ryan
Senior Director, Communications
646-884-7567
mryan@crefc.org

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CRE Securitized Debt Update

December 16, 2025

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

Eight transactions totaling $7.1 billion priced last week:

1. BX 2025-ARIA, a $2.9 billion SASB backed by a fixed-rate, five-year loan for Blackstone to refinance the Aria Resort & Casino and the Vdara Hotel & Spa in Las Vegas.
   
2. BANK 2025-BNK51, a $1 billion conduit backed by 74 primarily 10-year loans secured by 91 properties from Wells, Morgan Stanley, BofA, NCB, and JPMorgan.
   
3. BANK5 2025-5YR19, a $949.1 million conduit backed by 35 five-year loans secured by 85 properties from Morgan Stanley, Wells, BofA, and JPMorgan.
   
4. BBCMS 2025-C39, an $806.6 million conduit backed by 36 10-year loans secured by 69 properties from Barclays, Citi, Starwood, Deutsche, Wells, Goldman, Benefit Street, UBS, and Zions.
   
5. BMARK 2025-V19, a $588.7 million conduit backed by 28 five-year loans secured by 48 properties from Citi, Goldman, Deutsche, and Barclays.
   
6. NYC 2025-77C, a $405 million SASB backed by a fixed-rate, five-year loan for Clipper Equity to refinance the Tower 77 apartment building in the Greenpoint area of Brooklyn.
   
7. GSJP 2025-BEDS, a $271.5 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Kayne Anderson Real Estate and Core Spaces to refinance five student-housing properties in four states.
   
8. BAMLL 2025-HYT, a $237.5 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Portman Holdings to refinance the Hyatt Regency Salt Lake City hotel.

By the numbers: Year-to-date private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totals $155.3 billion, representing a 37% increase from the $113.4 billion recorded for same-period 2024. 

Spreads Come In

• Conduit AAA and A-S spreads were unchanged at +80 and +115. YTD, they are wider by 5 bps and 10 bps, respectively. 
• Conduit AA and A spreads tightened by 10 bps to +150 and +200. YTD, they are wider by 15 bps and 35 bps, respectively.
• Conduit BBB- spreads were tighter by 10 bps to +465. YTD, they are wider by 40 bps.
• SASB AAA spreads moved -4 bps to +1 bp, depending on property type, to a range of +113 to +136.
• CRE CLO AAA spreads were unchanged at +135/+140 (static/managed); BBB- spreads also held constant at +340 (static/managed).
  

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