News Archive

News

CREFC's July 2025 Monthly CMBS Loan Performance Report

August 25, 2025

CRE Finance Council has released a report on CMBS loan performance for July.

Key takeaways:
  
DELINQUENCY RATE INCHES UPWARD

 

 
  • Conduit/SASB CMBS combined delinquency of 7.23%
    • Delinquency rate increased 10 bps in July
    • Fifth consecutive monthly increase; follows increases of 5 bps in each of the prior two months
    • On a YOY basis, the overall combined delinquency rate is up 180 bps (7.23% vs. 5.43% in July 2024)
    • The 7.23% July delinquency rate is the highest since January 2021
  •  Office delinquency fell 4 bps in July to 11.04% – a welcome but modest relief – and still tops all property types.
    • Office delinquency rate set a record high in June (11.08%), surpassing previous peaks of 11.01% (December 2024) and 10.70% (July 2012) 
    • Overall, June delinquency rate still 309 bps below the 10.32% peak in June 2020 – the height of pandemic-related lockdowns
  • Loans in special servicing (SS) decreased 9 bps to 10.48% in July; SS rate has increased in 9 of the last 12 months and is up 218 bps YOY 

*Source: Trepp. CMBS data in this report reflect a total outstanding balance of $642.6B: 53.9% ($346.4B) conduit CMBS, 46.1% ($296.2B) single-asset/single-borrower (SASB) CMBS.
 

Click here to download the full report. Contact Raj Aidasani for more information on CMBS loan performance. 

Contact 

Raj Aidasani
Managing Director, Research
646.884.7566
CREFC Alert Photo Card
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC's July 2025 Monthly CMBS Loan Performance Report
August 25, 2025
CRE Finance Council has released a report on CMBS loan performance for July.

News

CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance Announces Sixth Annual CREFC Scholars Recipients

August 19, 2025
 
CREFC and NYU scholarship program celebrates the next generation of CRE professionals
 
The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) and the Schack Institute of Real Estate at The NYU School of Professional Studies announced their 2025-2026 CREFC Scholars. 
 

This year’s CREFC Scholars recipients include two undergraduate scholars and four graduate scholars. 

Undergraduate Scholarship Recipients:
 
  • Phuc Le
  • Matthew Volkening

Graduate Student Scholarship Recipients: 

  • Souleymane Ba
  • Julie Dettwiler 
  • Ahmed ElTir
  • Juliana Rivera Vallejo

The CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance at the Schack Institute and the CREFC Endowment Committee based their selection decisions on factors such as academic excellence, leadership potential, and a career focus on commercial real estate finance. This year’s pool of applicants was robust, with 37 students applying for scholarships. 

In addition to receiving our merit scholarships, CREFC Scholars are granted complimentary CREFC Academic membership with access to CREFC’s Resource Center and Career Center, as well as all CREFC programming. Scholarship recipients also may apply to CREFC’s mentorship program, which pairs students with industry mentors. Also, recipients have access to networking opportunities and are invited to attend all CREFC’s major conferences, seminars, and educational programming.

 

“We salute this year’s CREFC Scholars Program recipients and their early accomplishments in real estate finance,” said Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO, CREFC. “Now in its sixth year, our program continues to attract top-notch students by offering a host of professional development, mentorship, and educational opportunities in the commercial real estate capital markets. We look forward to continuing to work with the Schack Institute and fostering a new generation of professionals who offer fresh ideas and insights that will ensure that the CRE finance sector continues to grow and flourish.”
 
About the CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance at the Schack Institute. Launched in 2020, the CREFC Center is a hub for industry collaboration, novel programming, and student engagement. This venture is supported by an endowment gift to NYU Schack from CREFC in 2019. In addition to student scholarships, CREFC's gift allows for an industry-leading certificate program for CREFC members and a CREFC-focused class each semester, available to all CREFC members.
 

For more information about the CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance at the Schack Institute, visit: CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance.

Graduate Students
  
Souleymane Ba 
  
Souleymane Ba is pursuing a Master of Science in Real Estate with a concentration in Finance and Investment at New York University's Schack Institute of Real Estate. He is a member of the Hirsh Fellows program. This highly selective and specialized one-year academic program prepares students for leadership roles in the real estate industry through immersive learning experiences, mentorship opportunities, and global field intensives. Souleymane has had valuable and transformative internship experience in the real estate industry, gaining exposure to different markets and businesses, including client service, acquisition, and debt. Interning at Project Destined provided him with a comprehensive understanding of real estate fundamentals, and as a capital markets intern at CBRE, he conducted in-depth property market research. As a corporate finance intern at SL Green, he conducted lease audits, re-forecasted rental income, and performed in-depth variance analyses for a diverse portfolio of properties. His most recent internship was at Starwood Property Trust as an Investment Management intern. Souleymane graduated with a BBA in Finance & Investment at Baruch College.
  
Julie Dettwiler
  
Julie Dettwiler is pursuing a Master of Science in Real Estate. She was a fellow of the Hirsh Fellows program and has worked as an infrastructure and data center sector analyst for the NYU Reit Investment Fund, where she has conducted NAV analyses and detailed financial modeling to assess the valuation of infrastructure and data center companies. As a real estate finance intern in Hyrock AG, Julie structured and secured senior debt, bridge, and mezzanine funding in the firm’s Zurich office for multifamily and office property assets. She also served as a board member for a private real estate portfolio in Basel. Julie says her passion for real estate began when she led a mixed-use property renovation in Basel in 2022, an experience that allowed her to implement sustainable design and an energy-efficient system to maximize long-term value. Julie earned a Bachelor of Arts in Business and Economics at the University of Basel in Switzerland.
  
Ahmed ElTir
  
A graduate of Trinity College in Hartford, Conn., Ahmed ElTir is pursuing a Master of Science in Real Estate. Ahmed has worked as an analyst and dispositions lead for TrustKey Offers, and he has experience working as an intern in Qara Markets, where he helped with financial modeling and financial planning for products in Saudi Arabia and Kenya. Ahmed’s interest in real estate capital markets stems from a deep fascination with how financial structures not only drive projects but also “influence urban narratives.” Born in Cairo, Egypt, he wants to develop his real estate finance skills in New York City and work with a debt fund, but his long-term goal is to help develop real estate in Egypt’s capital city. Ahmed earned a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from Trinity College, where he was a member of Trinity’s College Finance Club risk assessment team. 
  
Juliana Rivera Vallejo
  
Juliana Rivera Vallejo is currently pursuing her Master’s in Real Estate Finance and Investment at the NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate. Originally from Colombia, she holds a Graduate Specialization in Corporate Finance from CESA and a Bachelor’s degree in Architecture from Universidad de los Andes. Before starting her master’s program, Juliana worked as an Investment Associate at CCLA Group, CIM Group’s Latin American branch, where she conducted feasibility analyses and due diligence for multifamily projects across Colombia. Most recently, she interned during the spring and summer semester as an Investment Associate at Centaur Properties, a boutique real estate development firm in New York City specializing in residential, hotel, and mixed-use projects. Juliana has also participated in the CREFC Debt Case Competition and the Colvin Case Study Challenge, gaining further insight into real estate capital markets and development strategy. She is excited to be an active CREFC member as she continues to build her career in New York’s real estate industry.
  
Undergraduate Students
  
Phuc Le
  
Phuc Le is a senior at the NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate, pursuing a Bachelor of Science in Real Estate Finance. He is an active member of the Schack Real Estate Club and serves as the Social Chair of the Vietnamese Student Association. Phuc’s professional experience includes a summer internship at Silverstein Properties, where he screened properties for potential acquisition or development related to The Avenir project, which aims to deliver 2,000 housing units with 25 percent designated as affordable housing. His responsibilities included underwriting opportunities, building a construction model to illustrate equity contributions and loan draw schedules, and presenting findings to senior leadership. Earlier in his career, Phuc interned at Delaine Companies, underwriting affordable and workforce housing projects and preparing marketing materials. He also participated in Project Destined’s internship in partnership with Welltower, where he pitched a Brooklyn multifamily value-add investment, and competed in the Boston University Hospitality and Real Estate Competition, earning a 30 percent scholarship offer toward their master’s program. Recognized on the Dean’s List at NYU, Phuc also supports his family’s business, Blessed Hotel and Bistro, and is currently involved in the completion of a hotel development on Phu Quoc Island in Vietnam.
  
Matthew Volkening
  
Matthew Volkening is a senior at the NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate, where he will earn a Bachelor of Science in Real Estate Finance with a minor in Creative Writing. He gained substantive industry experience as a 2025 Summer Investment Analyst at MCRE Partners, a private owner-operator of office and multifamily properties in New York, Washington, D.C., and Boston. In this role, he was involved in all aspects of the firm’s acquisition, asset management, and market research efforts. Volkening contributed to the underwriting and diligence of an institutional-quality multifamily asset in Manhattan, which is now under contract in partnership with an international family office. On campus, Volkening is a member of the Schack Real Estate Club and a student-athlete on NYU’s Men’s Varsity Basketball team, where he is a UAA Champion, NCAA Division III Tournament runner-up, and participant in the program’s first international excursion to Shanghai. He is on the Dean’s List and is actively involved in community service through The Bowery Mission and the Tunnel to Towers Foundation.
  
For a look at previous recipients of the CREFC Scholars program, visit: CREFC Scholars.

Contact 

Nicole Pepe
Executive Assistant
646.884.7576

npepe@crefc.org

CREFC Alert Photo Card
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance Announces Sixth Annual CREFC Scholars Recipients
August 19, 2025
The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) and the Schack Institute of Real Estate at The NYU School of Professional Studies announced their 2025-2026 CREFC Scholars.

News

CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance Announces Sixth Annual CREFC Scholars Recipients

August 19, 2025

CREFC and NYU scholarship program celebrates the next generation of CRE professionals

NEW YORK, August 19, 2025 – The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) and the Schack Institute of Real Estate at The NYU School of Professional Studies announced their 2025-2026 CREFC Scholars. 

This year’s CREFC Scholars recipients include two undergraduate scholars and four graduate scholars. 
 
Undergraduate Scholarship Recipients:
 
  • Phuc Le
  • Matthew Volkening

Graduate Student Scholarship Recipients: 

  • Souleymane Ba
  • Julie Dettwiler 
  • Ahmed ElTir
  • Juliana Rivera Vallejo

The CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance at the Schack Institute and the CREFC Endowment Committee based their selection decisions on factors such as academic excellence, leadership potential, and a career focus on commercial real estate finance. This year’s pool of applicants was robust, with 37 students applying for scholarships. 

In addition to receiving our merit scholarships, CREFC Scholars are granted complimentary CREFC Academic membership with access to CREFC’s Resource Center and Career Center, as well as all CREFC programming. Scholarship recipients also may apply to CREFC’s mentorship program, which pairs students with industry mentors. Also, recipients have access to networking opportunities and are invited to attend all CREFC’s major conferences, seminars, and educational programming.

 

“We salute this year’s CREFC Scholars Program recipients and their early accomplishments in real estate finance,” said Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO, CREFC. “Now in its sixth year, our program continues to attract top-notch students by offering a host of professional development, mentorship, and educational opportunities in the commercial real estate capital markets. We look forward to continuing to work with the Schack Institute and fostering a new generation of professionals who offer fresh ideas and insights that will ensure that the CRE finance sector continues to grow and flourish.”
 
About the CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance at the Schack Institute. Launched in 2020, the CREFC Center is a hub for industry collaboration, novel programming, and student engagement. This venture is supported by an endowment gift to NYU Schack from CREFC in 2019. In addition to student scholarships, CREFC's gift allows for an industry-leading certificate program for CREFC members and a CREFC-focused class each semester, available to all CREFC members.
 

For more information about the CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance at the Schack Institute, visit: CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance.

Graduate Students

Souleymane Ba 
  
Souleymane Ba is pursuing a Master of Science in Real Estate with a concentration in Finance and Investment at New York University's Schack Institute of Real Estate. He is a member of the Hirsh Fellows program. This highly selective and specialized one-year academic program prepares students for leadership roles in the real estate industry through immersive learning experiences, mentorship opportunities, and global field intensives. Souleymane has had valuable and transformative internship experience in the real estate industry, gaining exposure to different markets and businesses, including client service, acquisition, and debt. Interning at Project Destined provided him with a comprehensive understanding of real estate fundamentals, and as a capital markets intern at CBRE, he conducted in-depth property market research. As a corporate finance intern at SL Green, he conducted lease audits, re-forecasted rental income, and performed in-depth variance analyses for a diverse portfolio of properties. His most recent internship was at Starwood Property Trust as an Investment Management intern. Souleymane graduated with a BBA in Finance & Investment at Baruch College.

Julie Dettwiler
  
Julie Dettwiler is pursuing a Master of Science in Real Estate. She was a fellow of the Hirsh Fellows program and has worked as an infrastructure and data center sector analyst for the NYU Reit Investment Fund, where she has conducted NAV analyses and detailed financial modeling to assess the valuation of infrastructure and data center companies. As a real estate finance intern in Hyrock AG, Julie structured and secured senior debt, bridge, and mezzanine funding in the firm’s Zurich office for multifamily and office property assets. She also served as a board member for a private real estate portfolio in Basel. Julie says her passion for real estate began when she led a mixed-use property renovation in Basel in 2022, an experience that allowed her to implement sustainable design and an energy-efficient system to maximize long-term value. Julie earned a Bachelor of Arts in Business and Economics at the University of Basel in Switzerland.
  
Ahmed ElTir
  
A graduate of Trinity College in Hartford, Conn., Ahmed ElTir is pursuing a Master of Science in Real Estate. Ahmed has worked as an analyst and dispositions lead for TrustKey Offers, and he has experience working as an intern in Qara Markets, where he helped with financial modeling and financial planning for products in Saudi Arabia and Kenya. Ahmed’s interest in real estate capital markets stems from a deep fascination with how financial structures not only drive projects but also “influence urban narratives.” Born in Cairo, Egypt, he wants to develop his real estate finance skills in New York City and work with a debt fund, but his long-term goal is to help develop real estate in Egypt’s capital city. Ahmed earned a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from Trinity College, where he was a member of Trinity’s College Finance Club risk assessment team. 
  
Juliana Rivera Vallejo
  
Juliana Rivera Vallejo is currently pursuing her Master’s in Real Estate Finance and Investment at the NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate. Originally from Colombia, she holds a Graduate Specialization in Corporate Finance from CESA and a Bachelor’s degree in Architecture from Universidad de los Andes. Before starting her master’s program, Juliana worked as an Investment Associate at CCLA Group, CIM Group’s Latin American branch, where she conducted feasibility analyses and due diligence for multifamily projects across Colombia. Most recently, she interned during the spring and summer semester as an Investment Associate at Centaur Properties, a boutique real estate development firm in New York City specializing in residential, hotel, and mixed-use projects. Juliana has also participated in the CREFC Debt Case Competition and the Colvin Case Study Challenge, gaining further insight into real estate capital markets and development strategy. She is excited to be an active CREFC member as she continues to build her career in New York’s real estate industry.
  
Undergraduate Students 
  
Phuc Le
  
Phuc Le is a senior at the NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate, pursuing a Bachelor of Science in Real Estate Finance. He is an active member of the Schack Real Estate Club and serves as the Social Chair of the Vietnamese Student Association. Phuc’s professional experience includes a summer internship at Silverstein Properties, where he screened properties for potential acquisition or development related to The Avenir project, which aims to deliver 2,000 housing units with 25 percent designated as affordable housing. His responsibilities included underwriting opportunities, building a construction model to illustrate equity contributions and loan draw schedules, and presenting findings to senior leadership. Earlier in his career, Phuc interned at Delaine Companies, underwriting affordable and workforce housing projects and preparing marketing materials. He also participated in Project Destined’s internship in partnership with Welltower, where he pitched a Brooklyn multifamily value-add investment, and competed in the Boston University Hospitality and Real Estate Competition, earning a 30 percent scholarship offer toward their master’s program. Recognized on the Dean’s List at NYU, Phuc also supports his family’s business, Blessed Hotel and Bistro, and is currently involved in the completion of a hotel development on Phu Quoc Island in Vietnam.
  
Matthew Volkening
  
Matthew Volkening is a senior at the NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate, where he will earn a Bachelor of Science in Real Estate Finance with a minor in Creative Writing. He gained substantive industry experience as a 2025 Summer Investment Analyst at MCRE Partners, a private owner-operator of office and multifamily properties in New York, Washington, D.C., and Boston. In this role, he was involved in all aspects of the firm’s acquisition, asset management, and market research efforts. Volkening contributed to the underwriting and diligence of an institutional-quality multifamily asset in Manhattan, which is now under contract in partnership with an international family office. On campus, Volkening is a member of the Schack Real Estate Club and a student-athlete on NYU’s Men’s Varsity Basketball team, where he is a UAA Champion, NCAA Division III Tournament runner-up, and participant in the program’s first international excursion to Shanghai. He is on the Dean’s List and is actively involved in community service through The Bowery Mission and the Tunnel to Towers Foundation.
  
For a look at previous recipients of the CREFC Scholars program, visit: CREFC Scholars.
  
The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) is the trade association for the nearly $6 trillion commercial real estate finance industry with a membership that includes approximately 400 companies and 19,000 individuals. Member firms include balance sheet and securitized lenders, loan and bond investors, private equity firms, servicers, rating agencies, and borrowers. For 30 years, CREFC has promoted liquidity, transparency, and efficiency in the commercial real estate finance markets and acted as a legislative and regulatory advocate for the industry, playing a vital role in setting market standards and best practices and providing education for market participants.
  
Contact:
Nicole Pepe
npepe@crefc.org
646-884-7576

Contact  

Nicole Pepe
Executive Assistant
646.884.7576
 npepe@crefc.org
Press Release Image
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC Center for Real Estate Finance Announces Sixth Annual CREFC Scholars Recipients
August 19, 2025
The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) and the Schack Institute of Real Estate at The NYU School of Professional Studies announced their 2025-2026 CREFC Scholars.

News

CREFC’s 2Q 2025 Sentiment Index Jumps as CRE Market Optimism Rebounds

July 30, 2025

Download Survey

 

New York, July 30, 2025 – The CRE Finance Council (CREFC), the industry association representing the $6.2 trillion commercial and multifamily real estate finance sector, today released its Second-Quarter 2025 (2Q25) Board of Governors (BOG) Sentiment Index survey results. The index surged 27.8% to 112.3 from 87.9 in 1Q25, marking a decisive return to positive territory, reversing last quarter’s sharp decline, and climbing back above the neutral 100 baseline.

Conducted from July 8 to July 22, 2025, the survey captured a dramatic shift in sentiment as market participants adapted to the evolving economic landscape and found renewed optimism in stabilizing interest-rate expectations and improving capital market conditions. The rebound represents one of the strongest quarterly improvements in the index’s history.

Key Highlights From 2Q25 Index Core Questions:
 
  • Economic Outlook: Sentiment flipped positive, with only 27% of respondents expecting worse economic conditions over the next 12 months, a dramatic improvement from 80% last quarter. 54% expect stable conditions and 19% anticipate improvement.
  • Federal Policy: Governors see a much more favorable policy landscape, with 49% expecting a positive impact from government actions (up from 11% in 1Q25) and only 16% anticipating a negative impact (down from 59%).
  • Rate Impact: Positive shift with 38% seeing favorable rate movement (up from 30%), while negative sentiment dropped to 27% (from 30%).
  • CRE Fundamentals: The outlook for fundamentals stabilized, with only 19% of respondents expecting worsening conditions (down from 50% last quarter). 81% now foresee fundamentals improving or remaining unchanged.
  • Transaction Activity: Expectations for investor demand soared, with 65% predicting more demand (up from 35%) and only 3% expecting less demand (down from 20%).
  • Financing Demand: The board is exceptionally bullish on financing demand. 86% of respondents expect more borrower demand, up from 48% in 1Q25. Notably, 0% of respondents expect less demand.
  • Market Liquidity: Confidence in capital availability returned, with 92% expecting better or the same liquidity (up from 74% last quarter) and only 8% expecting worse conditions (down from 26%).
  • Overall Sentiment: The industry’s overall outlook showed a robust recovery, with 49% now holding a favorable view (up from 22%) and only 8% remaining negative (down from 43%).

Additional Topical Insights:

The survey revealed evolving risk perceptions, with geopolitical shocks remaining the top concern at 36%, followed by macroeconomic slowdown fears at 28%. Notably, 71% of respondents reported increasing appetite for new CRE lending or investment in the second half of 2025, with just 6% foreseeing a pullback. The emergence of AI-driven data center demand garnered significant attention, with 72% expecting positive impacts on the overall CRE market. Interest rate expectations moderated, with 78% of respondents expecting at least one 25 bps rate cut by year-end 2025, with the majority (53%) anticipating the target range will fall to 4.00% - 4.25%. Similarly, 87% expect the 10-year Treasury yield to end the year at or below 4.50%. 

Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of CREFC, commented: “The turnaround in our Sentiment Index highlights the CRE finance industry’s resilience and adaptability. What’s especially encouraging is the breadth of the recovery – from robust borrower demand to optimism around AI-driven data centers. Challenges remain, but the market is regaining its footing.”
 
For more information about the 2Q25 BOG Sentiment Index and the full survey results, please click here or contact Raj Aidasani at raidasani@crefc.org.

About CREFC and the Board of Governors Sentiment Index: 

The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) is the trade association for the commercial real estate finance industry. More than 400 companies and 19,000 individuals are members of CREFC. CREFC’s members play a critical role in the U.S. economy by financing office buildings, industrial properties, multifamily housing, retail facilities, hotels, and other types of commercial and multifamily real estate.
 
Nearly 50 senior executives in the commercial real estate finance markets represent CREFC’s Board of Governors. These leaders come from every sector of the commercial real estate lending and mortgage-related debt investing markets, including balance sheet and securitized lenders, loan and bond investors, mortgage bankers, private equity firms, loan servicers, rating agencies, attorneys, accountants, and others.
 
CREFC’s BOG Sentiment Index, launched in 2017, tracks quarterly shifts in commercial real estate finance sentiment through nine equally weighted core questions, supplemented by topical insights.
 
Contact: 
Aleksandrs Rozens 
Senior Director, Communications 
arozens@crefc.org
646-884-7567     

Contact 

Aleksandrs Rozens
Senior Director,
Communications
646.884.7567
arozens@crefc.org
Press Release Image
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC’s 2Q 2025 Sentiment Index Jumps as CRE Market Optimism Rebounds
July 30, 2025
The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) released its Second-Quarter 2025 (2Q25) Board of Governors (BOG) Sentiment Index survey results.

News

CREFC’s 2Q 2025 Sentiment Index Jumps as CRE Market Optimism Rebounds

July 30, 2025

Download Survey

 

The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) today released its Second-Quarter 2025 (2Q25) Board of Governors (BOG) Sentiment Index survey results. The index surged 27.8% to 112.3 from 87.9 in 1Q25, marking a decisive return to positive territory, reversing last quarter’s sharp decline, and climbing back above the neutral 100 baseline.   
 
Conducted from July 8 to July 22, 2025, the survey captured a dramatic shift in sentiment as market participants adapted to the evolving economic landscape and found renewed optimism in stabilizing interest-rate expectations and improving capital market conditions. The rebound represents one of the strongest quarterly improvements in the index’s history.
  
Key Highlights From 2Q25 Index Core Questions:

  • Economic Outlook: Sentiment flipped positive, with only 27% of respondents expecting worse economic conditions over the next 12 months, a dramatic improvement from 80% last quarter. 54% expect stable conditions and 19% anticipate improvement.
  • Federal Policy: Governors see a much more favorable policy landscape, with 49% expecting a positive impact from government actions (up from 11% in 1Q25) and only 16% anticipating a negative impact (down from 59%).
  • Rate Impact: Positive shift with 38% seeing favorable rate movement (up from 30%), while negative sentiment dropped to 27% (from 30%).
  • CRE Fundamentals: The outlook for fundamentals stabilized, with only 19% of respondents expecting worsening conditions (down from 50% last quarter). 81% now foresee fundamentals improving or remaining unchanged.
  • Transaction Activity: Expectations for investor demand soared, with 65% predicting more demand (up from 35%) and only 3% expecting less demand (down from 20%).
  • Financing Demand: The board is exceptionally bullish on financing demand. 86% of respondents expect more borrower demand, up from 48% in 1Q25. Notably, 0% of respondents expect less demand.
  • Market Liquidity: Confidence in capital availability returned, with 92% expecting better or the same liquidity (up from 74% last quarter) and only 8% expecting worse conditions (down from 26%).
  • Overall Sentiment: The industry’s overall outlook showed a robust recovery, with 49% now holding a favorable view (up from 22%) and only 8% remaining negative (down from 43%).

Additional Topical Insights:

The survey revealed evolving risk perceptions, with geopolitical shocks remaining the top concern at 36%, followed by macroeconomic slowdown fears at 28%. Notably, 71% of respondents reported increasing appetite for new CRE lending or investment in the second half of 2025, with just 6% foreseeing a pullback. The emergence of AI-driven data center demand garnered significant attention, with 72% expecting positive impacts on the overall CRE market. Interest rate expectations moderated, with 78% of respondents expecting at least one 25 bps rate cut by year-end 2025, with the majority (53%) anticipating the target range will fall to 4.00% - 4.25%. Similarly, 87% expect the 10-year Treasury yield to end the year at or below 4.50%. 
  
Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of CREFC, commented: “The turnaround in our Sentiment Index highlights the CRE finance industry’s resilience and adaptability. What’s especially encouraging is the breadth of the recovery – from robust borrower demand to optimism around AI-driven data centers. Challenges remain, but the market is regaining its footing.”
  
For more information about the 2Q25 BOG Sentiment Index and the full survey results, please click here or contact Raj Aidasani at raidasani@crefc.org.
  
About CREFC and the Board of Governors Sentiment Index: 
  
The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) is the trade association for the commercial real estate finance industry. More than 400 companies and 19,000 individuals are members of CREFC. CREFC’s members play a critical role in the U.S. economy by financing office buildings, industrial properties, multifamily housing, retail facilities, hotels, and other types of commercial and multifamily real estate.
  
Nearly 50 senior executives in the commercial real estate finance markets represent CREFC’s Board of Governors. These leaders come from every sector of the commercial real estate lending and mortgage-related debt investing markets, including balance sheet and securitized lenders, loan and bond investors, mortgage bankers, private equity firms, loan servicers, rating agencies, attorneys, accountants, and others.
  
CREFC’s BOG Sentiment Index, launched in 2017, tracks quarterly shifts in commercial real estate finance sentiment through nine equally weighted core questions, supplemented by topical insights.


Contact 

Raj Aidasani
Managing Director, Research
646.884.7566
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CREFC’s 2Q 2025 Sentiment Index Jumps as CRE Market Optimism Rebounds
July 30, 2025
The CRE Finance Council today released its Second-Quarter 2025 (2Q25) Board of Governors (BOG) Sentiment Index survey results.

News

CRE Securitized Debt Update

July 29, 2025
 



Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

Only one transaction priced last week:

  • BMARK 2025-V16, a $624.7 million conduit backed by 31 five-year loans secured by 157 properties across 36 states and Washington, D.C., from Citi, Goldman, DB, BMO, and Barclays.

By the numbers: Year-to-date private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totaled $84.7 billion, representing a 45% increase from the $58.5 billion recorded for same-period 2024. 

Spreads Hold Steady

  • Conduit AAA spreads tightened 2 bps to +81, while A-S spreads were unchanged at +113. YTD, AAA and A-S spreads are wider by 6 and 8 bps, respectively.
  • Conduit AA and A spreads were unchanged at +160 and +200, respectively. YTD, they are wider by 25 bps and 35 bps, respectively.
  • Conduit BBB- spreads were unchanged at +500. YTD, they are wider by 75 bps.
  • SASB AAA spreads were tighter by 1 - 2 bps to a range of +102 to +128, depending on property type.
  • CRE CLO AAA spreads were tighter by 5 bps to +130, while BBB- spreads were unchanged at +375.

Agency CMBS

  • Agency issuance totaled $2.5 billion last week, comprising $1.4 billion of Fannie DUS, $932.6 million of Freddie K, Q, and Multi-PC transactions, and $194.8 million of Ginnie Mae transactions.
  • Agency issuance for the year totaled $79.1 billion, 38% higher than the $57.4 billion for same-period 2024.
Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.
 

Contact 

Raj Aidasani
Managing Director, Research
646.884.7566
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CRE Securitized Debt Update
July 29, 2025
Only one transaction priced last week.

News

Bank Capital Conference Hints at Significant Reform

July 29, 2025

On July 22, the Federal Reserve hosted a highly anticipated conference on the state of and potential reforms to the bank regulatory capital framework. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Vice-Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman were both in attendance. 

Panels on the following topics featured bankers, regulators, and academics:
  • Leverage ratio reform
  • Evolution of the capital framework
  • Reforms to the Global Systemically Important Bank surcharge (G-SIB) framework 
  • Evaluating the stress test regime
  • Chief Financial Officers' perspectives on reforms to the capital framework

Basel III: The Central Theme at the Conference 

  • Most participants favored moving forward with Basel “Endgame” implementation, but with tailoring to account for bank size and business model. 
  • Many panelists voiced concerns about the risk of double-counting capital requirements given overlaps between stress testing frameworks and Basel III. 

Other key themes included the need to:

  • View the capital framework holistically rather than as a loose compilation of different rules. Speakers consistently argued that changes in one part of the framework (e.g., leverage ratios, G-SIB surcharge, stress tests) can have unintended consequences or create redundancies elsewhere, leading to suboptimal outcomes.
  • Approach regulation pragmatically, focusing on identifying problems and developing efficient, simple solutions. Many speakers advocated for reducing bureaucracy, streamlining processes, and ensuring clearer, more predictable rules to enhance banks' abilities to serve customers and support economic growth.
  • Ensure greater transparency in regulatory models, scenarios, and data to help identify and correct flaws, build trust with the public and investors, and enable banks to better manage risk and capital needs.
  • Prevent regulations, particularly the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) and GSIB surcharge, from disincentivizing bank engagement in low-risk activities (like Treasury market intermediation) or pushing credit origination outside the regulated banking system.
Yes, but: As reported by Law360, the conference has “drawn criticism in recent weeks from some Democrats and financial regulation advocates, who said the lineup of panelists tilted heavily toward industry-friendly voices.”
 
  • What they're saying: In a letter to Bowman last week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) said that the event was being used to justify "dangerous" regulatory rollbacks and that the panels favored Wall Street representatives at the expense of consumers, small businesses, and other "Main Street stakeholders." 
  • What’s next: Based on the conference’s theme of a holistic capital review and previous remarks made by senior regulators, we would expect significant changes to the bank capital framework. 
  • However, it is unclear whether we will see separate proposals (e.g. G-SIB surcharge, stress testing, Basel Endgame) or one comprehensive proposal. 
In a speech the night before the conference, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent thanked Bowman for convening the conference and urged a “fundamental reset of financial regulation.” 

Most significantly, his comments reinforced the heightened role of the administration, as stated in President Donald Trump’s February Executive Order on agency accountability, in promulgating future regulations: 

I intend for Treasury to drive financial regulatory policy that puts American workers first, prioritizes growth, safeguards financial stability, and protects our national security… In all these efforts, Treasury’s most important contribution might simply be to reinforce the urgency of reform. To that end, the department will break through policy inertia, settle turf battles, drive consensus, and motivate action to ensure no single regulator holds up reform.
CREFC is closely monitoring regulatory policy developments and will share feedback with the banking agencies.

Please contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) with any questions.

Contact  

Sairah Burki
Managing Director,
Head of Regulatory Affairs and Sustainability
703.201.4294
sburki@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Bank Capital Conference Hints at Significant Reform
July 29, 2025
On July 22, the Federal Reserve hosted a highly anticipated conference on the state of and potential reforms to the bank regulatory capital framework.

News

CBO Report Examines GSE Conservatorship Exit Costs

July 29, 2025

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which is tasked with calculating the federal budgetary costs of proposed legislation or policy changes, recently issued a report that examines the costs and benefits of ending Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs) conservatorship. 

Why it matters: President Donald Trump has publicly expressed his desire to change the status quo of the GSE conservatorship. While most expect Trump to conclude the conservatorship and return the GSEs as private entities, the administration has also considered maintaining some element of government control. 
 
What they’re saying: In a Politico story on the report, key GOP legislators noted they are interested in working on GSE conservatorship, but they still expect the effort to commence in 2026. CBO has issued a number of reports on GSE conservatorship in recent years, and the cost considerations will likely help guide lawmakers on future efforts. 
 
By the numbers: The report, titled Seven Things to Know About CBO’s Budgetary Treatment of Potential Changes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, walks through scenarios and revenue/cost considerations through the lens of CBO’s rules. While CBO scoring conventions have been subject to bipartisan criticism, the analysis will provide a benchmark to lawmakers as they consider potential action.
 
One important consideration is how CBO would score the government’s guarantee. The report specifically addresses this consideration: 
 
  • “If CBO no longer considered the GSEs to be government entities, it would incorporate the estimated cost of any explicit federal guarantee in its future cost estimates and baseline projections.”
  • As a reminder, the pre-2008 guarantee was “implicit” such that investors expected the government would step in to ensure timely repayment of defaulted loans—which it did. 
  • The Treasury’s support is explicit to the entities themselves, but not the MBS. A change in the conservatorship would open questions on how the government would backstop the GSEs or mortgages. 
  • Even if the guarantee were implicit, CBO says it would consider assessing the costs: “Before the GSEs were placed in conservatorships, CBO did not incorporate their implicit federal guarantee in its budget estimates. But the events of 2008 provide support for recording the cost of such a guarantee if the GSEs were released from government control without an explicit federal backstop.”

Go deeper: The report’s seven considerations are listed below: 

  1. CBO projects that the GSEs’ future mortgage guarantees have a budgetary cost.
  2. CBO treats the GSEs as if they were part of the government.
  3. Releasing the GSEs from government control would result in both federal savings and federal costs.
  4. CBO projects the budgetary effects of the GSEs’ mortgage guarantees on a fair-value basis.
  5. CBO’s baseline budget projections and cost estimates incorporate administrative and judicial actions.
  6. CBO would incorporate the cost of the Treasury’s implicit or explicit commitments to the GSEs in cost estimates.
  7. CBO’s estimate of the proceeds earned from selling the Treasury’s shares in the GSEs would depend on many factors.

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with any questions. 

Contact 

David McCarthy
Managing Director,
Chief Lobbyist, Head of Legislative Affairs
202.448.0855
dmccarthy@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CBO Report Examines GSE Conservatorship Exit Costs
July 29, 2025
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which is tasked with calculating the federal budgetary costs of proposed legislation or policy changes, recently issued a report.

News

Senate Banking Requests Feedback on Crypto Legislation

July 29, 2025

Now that the House has cleared three digital asset bills, the Senate is beginning robust consideration of the market structure legislation that would set up a regulatory regime for digital asset investments and exchanges. 

Why it matters: While the Stablecoin-focused legislation, The GENIUS Act, became law with bipartisan support, the market structure effort has triggered more bipartisan concerns. 
 
Senate Banking Republican Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC), Subcommittee on Digital Assets Chair Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN), and Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) released draft legislation and a Request for Information (RFI) seeking stakeholder feedback on a host of questions on the market structure bill. 
 
What's next: CREFC is seeking member feedback on the RFI.
 
  • The legislation is focused on digital assets, but it contemplates updates to “investment contract” definitions and numerous reporting regulations. 
  • While the intent is to update the law to allow for a digital asset market and oversight, it is important that lawmakers receive feedback from existing securities market participants on potential intended or unintended consequences of the effort. 
  • CREFC will send additional details to our Legal Advisory and Advocacy Committees. 

Please contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with any feedback, responses, or questions on the RFI. 

Contact 

David McCarthy
Managing Director,
Chief Lobbyist, Head of Legislative Affairs
202.448.0855
dmccarthy@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Senate Banking Requests Feedback on Crypto Legislation
July 29, 2025
Now that the House has cleared three digital asset bills, the Senate is beginning robust consideration of the market structure legislation that would set up a regulatory regime for digital asset investments and exchanges.

No content found

No content found

No content found

No content found

No content found

No content found

No content found

Become a Member

CREFC offers industry participants an unparalleled ability to connect, participate, advocate and learn!
Apply Now

Sign Up for eNews

Subscribe