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Geopolitical Shocks & Market Volatility – CREFC Investor Forums Share Markets Updates

March 31, 2026

The CMBS and CRE CLO markets, which entered 2026 with significant momentum, have transitioned into a period of uncertainty. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has recalibrated investor expectations and introduced a fresh layer of volatility into what was previously a normalizing market.

Market Sentiment & Macro Impact

The late-March "geopolitical shock" has triggered a classic "flight to quality," characterized by wider pricing on new deals and a marked increase in investor caution.

• The "Iran War" Effect: Market participants are closely monitoring the 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields, which have surged approximately 50 bps in the past month. Unlike the reactions seen during the Ukraine Invasion or "Liberation Day," the S&P 500 has seen a more measured drop of approximately 7%, suggesting the market may be pricing in a quicker resolution—though many bond investors remain skeptical of this optimism.
• Refinancing Friction: The sudden rate spike has created immediate friction for active deal pipelines. Borrowers may be reluctant to close loans at current levels, and some loans are being reworked to adjust for higher rates.
• Bifurcation: There is a divide in liquidity. While "trophy" assets like data centers remain resilient, we are seeing "credit dispersion" in the secondary market, where distressed sectors like Class B office and retail are widening significantly more than industrial assets.

Sector-Specific Performance

1. Conduit CMBS. Conduit products have recently "underperformed" relative to SASB and CLO structures as macro volatility rattles pricing.
   • Spreads: Benchmark AAA LCF (Last Cash Flow) spreads have widened from S +72 bps in early Q1 to the mid-80s by late March.
   • B-Piece Resilience: Feedback from the B-Piece Forum suggests that while yields tend to lag the broader market, buyers are reacting by "removing the marginal loan" from pools rather than just requiring wider yields. The mezz market remains a "deal-by-deal" environment with highly varied outcomes.
2. Single-Asset Single-Borrower (SASB). SASB remains the dominant force, accounting for nearly 75% of total private-label issuance.
   • Selectivity & Pauses: The market is open but more selective. Some SASB deals have been put on pause due to wider pricing. Investors are pushing back on AAA and BBB tranches, leading to deal delays when initial "test" pricing fails to find traction.
   • Data Center Strength: High-conviction sectors continue to drive volume, however, even these "gold standard" assets are seeing a shift toward shorter-term structures to navigate the current rate environment.
3. CRE CLOs. The CRE CLO market has seen a massive resurgence, with issuance reaching $11.2 billion by early March (up 34% YoY).
   • Collateral Shift: Multifamily remains the backbone (~70%), while office exposure has cratered to less than 3%.
   • Relative-Value Play: Interestingly, some investors are reportedly selling senior AAA CRE CLOs to pivot into Corporate CLO dislocations (driven by recent AI/Software sector news) as a total return play.

Asset Class Nuance: The Impact of Oil and AI

• Hotel Sector: Rising oil prices are expected to create a "K-shaped" recovery. Select-service hotels and those catering to lower-end demographics are viewed with increased concern as higher fuel costs squeeze consumer discretionary spending.
• Office & AI: While the Iran war has taken center stage, underlying anxiety regarding AI’s impact on long-term office employment remains a background headwind, adding to the structural uncertainty of the sector.

Capital Flow Observations

What’s Next. An Emerging Theme among Participants Is the Potential for "Capital Rotation." As noise increases in Private Credit (where asset values are perceived to be at "top-quartile" levels), there is an expectation that capital may flow into Real Estate Credit, where valuations are seen as having hit "bottom-quartile" levels, providing a more attractive entry point.

Bottom Line: The market remains open for transactions with strong fundamentals and realistic pricing expectations. However, for "tougher" deals or those with structural question marks, the current geopolitical environment has triggered a "wait-and-see" approach.

Contact Rohit Narayanan (rnarayanan@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Shape the Future of CREFC: Call for Forum Chair-Elect Nominations

March 3, 2026 

A vital part of the CRE Finance Council’s mission is driven by our Forums—specialized peer groups that serve as the engines of industry progress. Beyond providing a platform for discussing sector-specific trends and regulatory shifts, these groups are instrumental in tackling systemic issues and driving tangible change in how the industry operates, including the development and widespread adoption of market-leading best practices.

To ensure these groups continue to lead the industry conversation and catalyze meaningful change, we are officially opening nominations for our next class of Forum Chair-Elects.

This is a unique opportunity for members to take a leadership role within the Council, helping to curate programming and advocate for the interests of their specific market segment.

About the Forums

Our Forums are divided by constituency and asset focus to ensure relevant, high-level engagement across the CRE Finance industry. We are currently seeking leadership for the following groups:

• Alternative Lenders and High Yield Investors
• B-Piece Investors 
• GSE/Multifamily Lenders
• Investment-Grade (IG) Bondholders
• Issuers
• Portfolio Lenders – Bank & Insurance Company
• Servicers – Master and Special

Nominee Requirements

To maintain the high caliber of leadership our members expect, we invite nominations for individuals who meet the following criteria:

• Member Alignment: Nominees must be current employees of a CREFC member firm.
• Sector Expertise: Candidates should demonstrate significant professional experience and a proven track record within the specific Forum’s sector.
• Commitment to the Industry: A desire to contribute to the collective voice of the CRE finance community and a willingness to collaborate with fellow industry leaders.

Submit Your Nomination

Whether you are interested in stepping into a leadership role yourself or would like to recommend a colleague who has demonstrated exceptional insight and dedication to the industry, we want to hear from you.

The nomination process is straightforward and can be completed via the link below: SUBMIT A NOMINATION 

For a detailed breakdown of each Forum’s mission and current activities, please visit our Forums Overview page.

Join us in steering the future of CRE finance—nominate a leader today.

Contact Rohit Narayanan (RNarayanan@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Collaboration in Focus: Highlights from the CREFC Servicer/Investor Roundtable

February 10, 2026

CREFC’s President and CEO Lisa Pendergast recently hosted the trade association’s latest industry roundtable, bringing together Master and Special Servicers with Bond Investors to foster dialogue and build consensus across the commercial real estate finance landscape.

The gathering featured a robust lineup of industry leaders. 

• Servicers were represented by firms including Berkadia, CW Capital, K-Star, KeyBank, LNR Partners, Midland, Situs, and Trimont. 
• Bond Investors in attendance included representatives from Alliance Bernstein, DWS, Ellington, JP Morgan, Lord Abbett, MetLife, Prime Finance, Torchlight, and Webster Bank.

Common Ground and Constructive Dialogue

The evening’s discussion was characterized by a spirit of collaboration. Participants moved beyond individual interests to identify shared challenges and potential solutions for the broader market.

What they're saying: "The discussion at the table left me believing that we have more in common than we do in conflict," noted Adam Smith, Director at DWS Group and Chair of the CREFC Investment Grade Bondholders Forum. "I found it very worthwhile to identify shared pain points and agree they should be addressed."

Key Discussion Points

The conversation spanned high-level market trends and specific operational improvements, including:

• Macro Market Outlook: The current status and future trajectory of the Conduit, SASB, and CRE CLO sectors.
• Operational Enhancements: Improving the reporting processes for property releases.
• Technical Resolutions: Streamlining non-recoverable determinations to ensure market clarity.

Dana Jo Martino, SVP – Managing Director, Asset Management Servicing at Berkadia and co-Chair of the CREFC Servicer Forum, emphasized the value of these face-to-face interactions, stating:

"Our roundtable proved that when we combine diverse expertise with candid conversation, real solutions emerge," she said. "The meeting was both collaborative and highly productive, reinforcing the value of working together to address the challenges ahead."

Get Involved

CREFC Forums provide a platform for members to shape industry standards and solve complex market issues.

Click here to learn more and join a CREFC Forum.

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CRE CLO Spotlight: CREFC Miami Update

January 27, 2026

There was a clear sense of optimism across the CREFC community at the January 2026 Conference in Miami last week, and this enthusiasm extended to the CRE CLO sector. A key highlight of the event was the CRE CLO Investor Reporting Meeting, at which industry participants gathered to tackle the evolving needs of transparency and market standardization.

For those who couldn't join us in South Beach, the session served as a critical forum for aligning the interests of investors, issuers, and servicers. Here is a breakdown of the key initiatives in motion.

The Push for Financial Reporting Alignment: The centerpiece of the meeting was a discussion on the requirement to standardize financial reporting across various platforms—specifically Servicer IRP reports, Quarterly Asset Reports (QARs), and the Collateral Manager Data Report (CMDR).

As Trust and Servicing Agreement (TSA) language evolves to incorporate this standardization, the group reached a consensus: there is a key need for underwriting guidelines for transitional assets that provide a uniform reporting structure across all issuers.

The Roadmap: CREFC is working with Issuers to establish formal guidelines and update the CREFC IRP NOI Worksheet to encompass transitional assets. A draft template will be shared with the full working group and IRP Committee for feedback shortly, with a formal implementation target of June 2026.

Key Industry Updates & Enhancements

Beyond financial alignment, the working group addressed several technical updates vital to the health of the market:

• Annex Rows for Loan Additions: This has moved from a "nice-to-have" to a standard market practice. If you are not seeing Annex Rows referenced in your transaction documents, please alert CREFC so we can engage with issuers to bridge these gaps.
• CMDR Rollout: The transition to the Collateral Manager Data Report (CMDR) is hitting a major milestone. We anticipate a majority of issuers will produce this report this quarter, utilizing Q4 2025 data. We are eager to hear your feedback as this goes live.
• Floating-Rate Data Fields: To better serve the CRE CLO and floating-rate SASB markets, the IRP Committee is adding specific fields to capture Extended Maturity Dates and Interest Rate Caps.

Looking Ahead

The bottom line: The strength of the CRE CLO market relies on the active participation of its members. We value your continued support as we refine these reporting standards to meet the demands of this sophisticated investor base.

Missed the meeting? 

• We remain available for one-on-one calls to bring your firm up to date on these developments. 
• Please reach out to the CREFC team with any questions or comments.

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Forum Spotlight: Key Takeaways from Miami

January 27, 2026

The CREFC Forums presented their viewpoints and updates at the January 2026 Conference in Miami. The sentiment across the board was constructive, driven by a resurgence in lending and securitization volumes. 

Issuers Forum. The Issuer Forum kicked off the Forum panels on Monday highlighting the ~$150 billion in issuance for 2025 – a nearly 40% improvement over 2024 and the strongest volume since the post-GFC era. Discussion points included the:

• Growing financing of data centers, 
• Today’s interest-rate volatility, 
• The integration of AI, and 
• Market nuances within the office and multifamily sectors.

Alternative Lenders and High Yield Investors Forum. The Forum covered topics ranging from:

• Capital deployment across the capital stack in 2025 vs. expectations for 2026, 
• Structural protections as the primary credit tool, and 
• Refinance assumptions vs reality.

The discussion also drilled down into South Florida real estate—specifically West Palm Beach and Miami—analyzing the market from both borrower and lender perspectives.

Portfolio Lenders Forum. The Forum covered topics ranging from the competitive landscape, pricing dynamics, and underwriting divergence. Panelists also shared their conviction for new investment across industrial, multifamily, retail, office, and other property types, alongside back-leverage options.

B-Piece Investors Forum. Participants focused on conduit issuance trends, noting volumes remain slightly below pre-COVID levels. Other topics included deal size, underwriting standards, and the impact of the cost of debt on acquisitions and refinances. The panel also addressed credit concerns regarding recent-vintage multifamily assets and the hospitality sector outlook.

IG Bondholders Forum. The forum kicked off Tuesday with a spirited panel discussion offering a balanced view that cited strong tailwinds—such as expectations of record issuance to continue into 2026 and improved CRE CLO reporting, as well as headwinds like delinquency upticks and ratings migration. The Forum emphasized that enhanced transparency is critical to maintaining positive market momentum. 

Servicers Forum. The discussion prioritized operational resilience (covering cybersecurity and data privacy), shifting regulatory compliance, and loan workout trends. The panel also explored workforce evolution and talent management in the age of AI.

GSE/Multifamily Lenders Forum. The Forum panel series concluded with a robust discussion on multifamily fundamentals, the macroeconomic environment, and the interest-rate trajectory. The panel provided an outlook on 2026 GSE caps, volume expectations, and the broader capital markets landscape, including the potential impact of deregulation and capital easing.

Please Join Us for an Upcoming Webinar: 

• Meeting of the Seven Families: CREFC Forums Roundup. 
• Did you miss the insights in Miami? Join leaders from all seven CREFC Forums for a cross-disciplinary webinar that synthesizes the common themes for navigating today's markets and offers views on what lies ahead. 
• The Webinar is scheduled for Thursday, February 12, 2026 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM EST. Click here for complimentary registration.

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Forum Spotlight: Portfolio Lenders

November 4, 2025

Together, Melissa Farrell and Bridget Scanlon (Forum Chairs), Kevin Catlett and Mauricio Duran (Chair-Elects), and Robert Grudzinski and Kevin Pivnick (Past-Chairs) form the Leadership Working Group for CREFC’s Portfolio Lenders Forum. They are supported by Farran Brown, the Young Professionals (YP) Representative for the Forum.

Chair duties include setting agendas and priorities for the Forum and representing the constituency on CREFC’s Policy Committee.

Why it matters: Each Forum interacts and addresses issues critical to their business sector and works to achieve solutions that serve a common purpose. 

• Ensure all voices are heard,
• Assist in finding consensus amidst disparate and converging views,
• Share those views when appropriate with regulators and legislators, utilizing CREFC’s experienced Government Relations Team, and
• Develop new best practices and monitor old ones.

Key Portfolio Lender Focus Areas

Valuation and Rates: 

• Declines in valuations have continued to slow throughout 2025 with the bottom approaching.
• Supply has moderated as absorption continues.
• Loan risk ratings have largely stabilized.
• Overall transaction volume has increased in 2025 but still remains muted.
• Despite the rate declines throughout the year, interest rates remain elevated.
• Underwriting standards continue to be disciplined.
• Operating expense increases, particularly insurance and real estate taxes, have moderated but remain elevated compared to transactions acquired/underwritten several years prior.
  

Lending Pipeline and Appetite: 

• Capital is plentiful with significant focus on private credit.
• Lending volume increased driven mainly by refinances with acquisition volume still muted.
• Increased competition is causing spread compression.
• Capital markets lending remains open from multiple sources and pipelines slowly continue to build heading into 2026. An uptick in refinancing activity has resulted in some portfolio lenders becoming increasingly focused on retaining existing loans and winning new quality business.
• Despite the rate decreases throughout 2025, shorter-term floating-rate and fixed-rate deals with prepayment flexibility remain the most attractive products for borrowers in the market.
• Rates continue to be a high focus with a current market expectation for at least one additional cut prior to the end of the year.

Asset Management: 

• Recent improvement in capital markets conditions has created more tangible financing options for borrowers and increased refinancing activity, alleviating pressure on portfolio lender’s balance sheets.
• Lenders continue to address maturing or challenged loans with a variety of strategies, including loan sales, cooperative asset sales with seller financing, and modifications.
  

• Year-to-date SASB issuance is at a record pace ($76B through October 2025) and lenders are open for business as both transaction activity and loan refinancing pick up pace. 
• Material increase in office loans ($25B of office issuance ytd 2025 vs. $8B of office issuance over the same period in 2024).

What They’re Saying: The effects of shifting policies on interest rates along with economic growth will materially influence lending strategies and market liquidity in 2026, but the expectation is for increasing growth targets for portfolio lenders.

Key Policy Committee matters:

• Basel Capital Proposal
• GSE Changes
• Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) Reauthorization
• Bipartisan Housing bills and Road to Housing Act

What's Next? Forum Leaders look forward to presenting CREFC members with an update on their forum at the CREFC January Conference in Miami. As June 2026 approaches, the chairs will seek nominations for the next Chair-Elect to join their leadership slate.

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