Tax Bill Update: Senate on the Brink
July 1, 2025
Congressional Republicans are pressing to deliver the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) for President Donald Trump to sign by July 4. Leaders have been optimistic about meeting the deadline, but vote-counting challenges remain, and the bill continues to evolve.
- As of 9:00 AM on July 1, the Senate is still in its vote-a-rama, but lawmakers aim for a final vote soon.
- Reported GOP holdouts include Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). Leadership is focusing on flipping Murkowski so a 50-50 vote can be broken by Vice President JD Vance.
Why it matters: The White House has made a heavy push to enact the bill by July 4, which required both the Senate and the House to truncate their scheduled recesses.
- The Senate worked over the weekend to begin debate on the bill, with final action likely today.
- Only two GOP senators, Sen. Paul and Sen. Tillis, opposed the motion to proceed on the bill. Soon after, Tillis announced he would not run for reelection in 2026.
- The House is expected to vote on the bill Wednesday, and leaders are attempting to craft the Senate bill to appease (or jam) the House. With the Friday deadline, there would be no room for a conference to reconcile any lingering differences.
- At least eight House GOP members have said they will vote against the bill. While other House Republicans are concerned with certain parts of the bill, only three GOP members can oppose the bill if all Democrats are voting against it.
The big picture: While the bill itself continues to evolve, the concerns of individual Members of Congress have consistently centered around state and local tax (SALT) deductions, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits, Medicaid, and the overall debt impact.
- SALT: The latest deal in the Senate version largely preserves the $40,000 deduction for those making under $500,000 in House language. Notably, after five years, it permanently reverts to a $10,000 deduction. The Senate bill also removes the House prohibition that would have limited state workarounds for certain pass-through entities. The House SALT Caucus is largely on board, but Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) has said he will oppose the bill on SALT grounds.
- IRA Credits: Dueling Republican factions are seeking either greater preservation of the credits and tax treatment, or ending them sooner or completely. The latest iteration has drawn ire from solar and wind advocates, including Elon Musk.
- Medicaid and Overall Spending: The changes to Medicaid are the primary driver of budget savings, but deficit hawks complain the cuts are not deep enough, while some moderates are concerned the cuts go too far. Sen. Tillis’s main objection to the bill was that too many people would lose health insurance. Murkowski and Collins are also concerned about the Medicaid provisions.
What’s next: Assuming the Senate passes the bill today, expect maximum pressure from President Donald Trump on House holdouts.
Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with any questions.