Presidential Election: RFK Jr. - A Spoiler?
April 23, 2024
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been drawing outsize attention in his campaign, as he seeks to follow in the footsteps of his father Robert F. Kennedy and uncle, John F. Kennedy.
Why it matters: RFK Jr. is unlikely to win any individual state but could be a spoiler for Trump or Biden in November, as he is averaging 7.9% in polls.
- Kennedy has been running for president since April 19, 2023, though he initially challenged President Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination. This past October he changed course and announced he was running as an independent.
- On March 26, 2024, Kennedy announced his running mate, Nicole Shanahan. For her background click here, for RFK Jr’s biography click here.
By the numbers: Is RFK Jr. drawing more votes from Trump or Biden? The answer is unclear, but a few polls have tried to gauge Kennedy’s strength in key swing states.
In polling done by The Wall Street Journal, Kennedy received varying levels of support in swing states. In the crucial states of Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, he received 12%, 13%, and 15% of the vote, respectively.
Later in the poll, voters were asked to choose from a list of candidates that did not include Kennedy and then to choose again from a list to which Kennedy had been added. For the full poll, please click here.
- Trump lost a higher percentage of voters to Kennedy than did Biden in five of the seven swing states polled. But in most cases, that difference was around 1%, within margins of error.
- Historically, third-party candidates tend to do worse than their polling suggests. As voters consider the likely outcome of the election, the allure of an outsider candidacy tends to wane.
Other data points demonstrate that RFK’s campaign draws from Biden voters.
- In the polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, Trump leads Biden in a one-on-one match-up by a negligible margin: roughly half a percentage point. But the former president has a 2-point advantage over Biden when Kennedy is listed as an option.
Where Is RFK Jr. on the ballot? RFK Jr. claims he is on the ballot in all of the states noted below. Yet, not all of those states have confirmed.
Ballot eligibility varies from state-to-state:
- RFK Jr’s campaign claims that he is on the ballot in Utah, Hawaii, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, and Idaho.
- Only Michigan and Utah state officials have publicly confirmed he is on their ballots.
- The 2020 winning margins in Nevada, North Carolina, and Michigan were under 3% in 2020.
What’s next: Both campaigns have taken note of Kennedy’s candidacy, with the Biden campaign recently holding an event in which other members of the Kennedy family endorsed Biden instead of their relative.
Contact James Montfort (Jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.