House Retirements in Focus
April 9, 2024
Members of Congress are retiring at rates comparable to other cycles, but in this election cycle some lawmakers are making their exits a bit earlier than 2025.
What’s happening:
- Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO): The Congressman from Colorado’s 4th district announced his retirement last November but resigned on March 23.
- Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) announced in early February that he would be retiring from the House at the end of his term. He then clarified that his last day would be on Friday, April 19.
Why this timing raised a few eyebrows:
- If Gallagher had left the House just ten days earlier on April 9th, there would have been a special election to fill his seat as required by Wisconsin law. However, since he left after April 9th, the seat will stay vacant until November.
- Rep. Gallagher has openly expressed frustration with his party about how they have been governing. Recently, he stated he wouldn’t commit to attending the party’s convention this summer.
- The seat likely will stay in Republican hands come November, but candidates from both parties have declared interest in running for Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District.
What this all means for Speaker Johnson and the Republicans:
The House is currently divided at 218-213 with four vacancies, which provides a challenge for Speaker Johnson who needs a two-vote majority.
- When Rep. Gallagher officially departs on April 19, the majority will drop to one vote, a narrow margin not seen since 1919.
- Speaker Johnson will have to contend with the motion to vacate from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. The motion could be brought up as soon as Tuesday, April 9.
What they're saying: Rep. Greene contends that Speaker Johnson’s compromise with Democrats to keep the government open last month and his intention to bring additional Ukraine aid to the floor are reason enough to boot him from his post.
- However, some Democrats have promised that if Speaker Johnson brings Ukraine aid to the floor they will protect him and table Rep. Greene’s motion.
When this margin won’t matter: Three special elections will take place between May 21 and June 25, which will likely add to the GOP majority.
If all these elections break for Republicans, as expected, Speaker Johnson will have a larger margin, though the fractious GOP conference will continue to create challenges for party leadership as votes on foreign aid and other program reauthorizations loom.
The bottom line: There may only be 81 legislative days left in the 118th Congress but there’s still time for additional precedents to be set, as Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ouster was a first.
- The government is only funded through September 30 and legislators will once again need to agree to take action for FY 2025 or risk a shutdown.
- The 2024 election 209 days from today.
Please contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.