GOP Presidential Primary Update
November 20, 2023
With new polls coming out every week, attention is heating up on the 2024 Presidential race.
The big news this week was Senator Tim Scott’s (R-SC) dropping out of the primary. Scott failed to garner widespread support, and, to the shock of many of his staff, dropped out of the race on November 12. Scott’s fundraising had been robust, unlike former Vice President Mike Pence, who dropped out in October.
Who’s remaining? The GOP race has slimmed down to seven candidates: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, and Asa Hutchinson.
- Former President Donald Trump is still far and away the frontrunner (even though he has not participated in a single debate).
- Trump is registering 59.1% in the polls with Governor Ron DeSantis at a distant 14.1 %, and Haley and Ramaswamy coming in at 9.4 % and 5.1 % respectively.
What’s next: The first contest is the Iowa Republican caucuses on January 15 and is followed by the New Hampshire primaries on January 23.
General Election Outlook: Recent polling shows President Biden trailing former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
By the numbers: A Yahoo News/YouGov poll found Trump has a slight edge over the sitting president in a hypothetical rematch, leading Biden 44% to 42%. However, the poll also found 9% of respondents were unsure who they would vote for, and another 5% said they were not planning to vote.
What they’re saying: Biden has time to turn it around, but Trump’s strength nationally and in key battleground states should give Democrats pause. The results in Kentucky, Virginia, and Ohio bode well for Democrats overall, but concerns over Biden’s popularity and his age will continue to dominate as the Presidential election draws nearer.
Yes, but: The 2023 elections demonstrate Democrats can win on abortion, even in Red states. Still, the turnout factor for presidential elections (and Trump specifically) is untested in a post-Roe v. Wade world.
Contact James Montfort (firstname.lastname@example.org) with questions.