Congressional Outlook
April 9, 2024
The House and Senate are back this week from a two-week recess after funding the government.
What’s next: While the risk of a shutdown is no longer imminent, several difficult issues will confront lawmakers over the next few months. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) outlined his priorities in a Dear Colleague Letter last week.
- Action on Ukraine funding is a top priority for many Democrats and Republicans, and while Speaker Johnson is supportive of Ukraine funding, action on it might prompt his ouster. More on this below.
- The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) expires on April 19 and progressive and conservative critics have demanded changes to FISA they claim will protect Americans. Proponents of FISA argue that some proposed changes will hamstring surveillance of foreign terrorists and adversaries.
- Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reauthorization is needed by May 10.
- Funding to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore could run into some partisan roadblocks.
- Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’ impeachment trial will likely begin Thursday. The Senate is unlikely to reach the 67-vote threshold needed to convict and remove him.
- Additional Senate priorities include the bipartisan tax bill, the TikTok divestment bill, and appropriations for FY 2025.
Over in the House, Speaker Johnson is expected to take action on Ukraine funding, though it’s not clear how. The Senate-passed national security supplemental that packages Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan funding is the quickest path, as any changes would have to be reapproved by the Senate and face procedural delays by opponents.
- Johnson has floated other options for Ukraine funding, including forgivable loans, in an attempt to compromise with GOP opponents of additional spending.
- Israel funding may come under additional scrutiny and opposition in the wake of the accidental killings of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers by Israeli forces.
- Any action on Ukraine will likely prompt action on a motion to vacate Speaker Johnson, which Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) filed on March 22. Democrats are expected to save Johnson, though the situation is fluid. See the “Retirements” article below for more details.
Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions.