‘26 Election Outlook in the Wake of Senate Retirements
April 29, 2025
With Senator Dick Durbin’s announced retirement last week, the Democratic Party faces a major generational shift and a fiercely competitive cycle ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Why it matters: Durbin, one of several longtime lawmakers announcing plans to retire, said it was time to "pass the torch," reflecting a broader generational transition in Democratic leadership.
Four other senators have also retired so far this year:
Go deeper: Senator Durbin—the Democratic Whip—has been the number two Senate Democrat since 2005 and is the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee.
These retirements signal a significant transition, particularly within the Democratic Party, as a new generation of lawmakers prepares for the 2026 midterms. Democrats already faced a tough cycle ahead of them, but these retirements are not helping them in their quest to retake the majority, according to Politico.
By the numbers: The six most competitive Senate seats in the 2026 cycle are outlined below. Three of these seats are in states where the senior Democrats listed above are retiring.
- Michigan (Open – D): With Senator Gary Peters retiring, this swing state is a toss-up between rising Democrats and GOP veteran Mike Rogers; many contenders on both sides likely will toss their hat in the ring.
- New Hampshire (Open – D): Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement sets the stage for a crowded field of Democratic and Republican contenders.
- Minnesota (Open – D): Tina Smith’s departure creates a rare open race in a state with a dynamic political identity and significant suburban swing voters.
- Georgia (Incumbent – D, Jon Ossoff): Ossoff faces re-election in a purple state where high-profile Republicans may challenge him. Current Governor Brian Kemp would be a frontrunner if he decides to jump into the race.
- North Carolina (Incumbent – R, Thom Tillis): Internal GOP divisions and rising Democratic interest could make this traditionally red seat more vulnerable than expected.
- Maine (Incumbent – R, Susan Collins): Collins is running again in a blue-leaning state, and Democrats hope to finally flip the seat after multiple close calls.
The bottom line: Senator Durbin is just one of several veteran members of Congress to step aside for a new generation of leaders. The 2026 midterm cycle has just begun, and we will watch to see if more Senators head for the exits.