News

CRE Finance Council has released a report on CMBS loan performance for the month of August.*

Key takeaways:

DELINQUENCY RATE DROPS BELOW 3%, LOWEST POST-COVID

• Following a 15 basis point decline in July, the delinquency rate fell an additional 8 basis points (bps) in August to 2.98%; This is the first time the rate has been below 3% since before the pandemic
• Despite the second consecutive monthly decline, the delinquency rate over the next few months may be volatile given the challenging macro environment, as well as the new landscape for lenders in refinancing loans at higher rates and higher cap rates and thus lower asset valuations
• August’s delinquency rate is 733 bps lower from its peak of 10.31% in June 2020 and is the lowest since April 2020 (2.09%) – before the impacts of the pandemic were first reflected in the data

SPECIAL SERVICING RATE NOTCHES FIRST INCREASE IN TWO YEARS

• Uptick in Special Servicing Volume: Loans in special servicing rose 12 basis points in August to 4.92%, the first increase following 22 consecutive monthly declines. While the rate remains well below its high of 10.48% in September 2020, the height of the pandemic, higher benchmark rates, and the real risk of an economic slowdown suggest asset valuations may be on the decline.
• Retail and multifamily loans drove the SS increase, rising 114 and 67 bps to 11.03% and 1.90%, respectively. All other property types saw decreases.
• Current tally of SS loans is ~$31 billion of specially serviced loans vs. ~$14 billion at year-end 2019, pre-pandemic
• According to BofA Global Research, as of August 2022:
• 419 loans across 258 conduit CMBS transactions (outstanding balance of $9.4 billion, 2.5% of the outstanding conduit universe) had delinquency statuses of in-foreclosure or REO; and
• Additional 250 loans in 186 conduit CMBS ($6.9 billion, 1.8% of outstanding conduits), mentioned foreclosure/dual tracking in servicer commentary
• ~41% backed by retail and ~26% hotel; 2014 and 2015 vintage loans most impacted
• Outlook: While too early to declare a trend, uptick in August special serving rate may reflect the challenges of refinancing loans in current rate and economic environment. We anticipate some increase in loans transferred to SS in coming months.

AUGUST REMIT REALIZED LOSSES

• 12 loans across 14 CMBS transactions were liquidated with realized losses totaling $187.9 million in the August remit period

*Source: Trepp. CMBS data in this report reflect a total outstanding balance of $633.9 billion: 60.7% ($384.7B) conduit CMBS, 39.3% ($249.2B) single-asset/single-borrower (SASB) CMBS.

Click here to download the full report. Contact Raj Aidasani for more information on CMBS loan performance.