Senate Midterm Update
July 14, 2026
The midterm battle for the Senate has had a few shakeups recently. Democrats need to flip four seats to take control of the chamber, which the GOP controls at 53-47.
Maine
The biggest development in the battle for the Senate emerged in Maine last week, when Democratic nominee Graham Platner withdrew from the race in light of sexual assault allegations, which he denies.
- Senior Democratic leaders publicly called for him to step aside, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee suspended support for his candidacy
- This seat has been considered a top pickup opportunity for Democrats as incumbent Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) is the only Senate Republican in office who represents a state that Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024.
The Maine Democratic Party is holding a special nominating convention on July 25, when roughly 600 delegates will hear from candidates and vote in successive rounds until one candidate wins a majority. Names in the mix include:
- Nirav Shah: The highest-profile entrant. He became widely known in Maine for his COVID-19 briefings and has broad name recognition.
- Troy Jackson: A longtime labor-backed progressive from rural Maine with support from many Sanders-aligned activists and strong ties to organized labor.
- Shenna Bellows: A statewide elected official with an established political network and high visibility from election administration and voting-rights issues.
Some Democrats continue to highlight that Platner won with grassroots support and was a progressive populist. They argue if Democrats want to have any chance at winning they need to ensure that the new nominee can entice the same voters.
Michigan: Michigan is of the few Democratic-held Senate seats located in a state won by President Trump in 2024. The state is currently represented by retiring Senator Gary Peters (D) and is a must win for Democrats in their quest to control the Senate.
Top Swing States: While the map has favored Republicans, political headwinds and strong candidate recruitment has made for more competitive races.
North Carolina: North Carolina remains one of the nation's most competitive swing states, with rapidly growing suburban areas that have trended toward Democrats in recent cycles.
Ohio: While Ohio has shifted heavily Republican the last few cycles, Democrats believe the state's strong union tradition and history of supporting populist candidates create opportunities under the right political environment.
Alaska: Alaska's ranked-choice voting system puts all candidates on the same ballot for the general election. This has thrown a wrench into what should be a conventional Democrat vs. Republican matchup in a red state.
- Former Representative Mary Peltola (D-AK-AL) is emphasizing her bipartisan appeal and strong support among Alaska Native communities. Incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK) enters the race with the advantages of incumbency and a state that leans Republican.
- Recently, the Alaska supreme court allowed two candidates with the same name “Dan Sullivan” to remain on the ballot this fall. The ranked choice voting system could possibly divide support for the GOP’s Dan Sullivan, and push some voters to the independent Dan Sullivan. If this happens, Peltola has an easier path to win the election.
Texas: The state has become steadily more competitive as its metropolitan areas grow and diversify, narrowing Republican margins over the past decade, though statewide victories remain elusive for Democrats.
Iowa: Iowa’s open Senate race features Democrat Josh Turek against Republican nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson.
- Democrats view Turek’s working-class message, background as a Paralympic athlete, and appeal to independents as a path to flipping a state that has moved right in recent years.
- While Hinson benefits from Iowa’s Republican lean and strong GOP organization, polls currently have the race as a tie. President Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024.
Georgia: Democratic incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff has been pitted against Republican nominee Mike Collins. Collins just finished a bruising primary on June 16, while Ossoff faced no primary opponents and has been able to campaign full time as the nominee.
What’s next: As primaries wrap up by the end of the summer, the general election field will soon be set, and the battle for the Senate will head into a new phase.
There are 112 days until election day. Democrats seem to be poised to win seats, but how many they retake will depend heavily on the results of Maine and Michigan’s nominating contests.
Please contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org).
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