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House Financial Services Committee to Markup CFPB Data Bill Rollback

April 21, 2026

The House Financial Services Committee is expected to consider legislation today that would raise the compliance threshold under the CFPB’s Section 1071 small-business lending data collection rule, reducing the number of lenders subject to reporting requirements. 

Why it matters: Section 1071 is a Dodd Frank era rule that requires lenders to collect data on financing to small businesses. However, the final rule does not exempt financing secured by commercial real estate, which means that lenders may have to collect and report data on certain CRE mortgages. 

What they’re saying: CREFC commented on the initial rule and sent a recent follow-up letter that urged the CFPB to exempt CRE financing. 

• The legislation would raise the origination threshold to 500 loans for the lending institutions and lower the small business revenue threshold from $5 million in gross annual revenue to $1 million.
• The CFPB has not yet released its revised final rule. 

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions.

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State of the Fed and Rulemakings at the SEC

April 21, 2026

A growing coalition of Senate Republicans is urging the Department of Justice (DOJ) to end its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, warning that the probe is blocking Trump's own economic agenda and putting his Fed nominee in limbo.

• Trump escalated his threats against Powell this week, saying he will fire him if Powell doesn't leave "on time" when his term as Fed chair expires on May 15. 
• Firing Powell, however, could trigger a prolonged legal battle, similar to his attempt to remove Fed board member Lisa Cook, a case currently before the Supreme Court.

As reported by Politico, last week senior Republicans suggested that the DOJ end its investigation. 

• Senate Majority Leader John Thune shared that "it's in everybody's best interest to wrap up the investigation."
• House Financial Services Chair French Hill stated that the probe "delays the implementation of the president's economic policy."

State of play: The Justice Department’s investigation centers on whether Powell misrepresented cost overruns on a Fed headquarters renovation. A federal judge revoked the DOJ subpoenas, calling them a "pretext" to pressure the Fed on interest rates. 

Trump Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing before the Banking Committee is set for today, April 21, but Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has vowed to block the confirmation until the DOJ drops the investigation. 

• Republicans and Democrats have 13 and 11 members, respectively, on the Banking Committee. If all Democrats and Tillis vote against Warsh's confirmation, his nomination will fail to advance to the full Senate.

Furthermore, Powell is said to be increasingly open to staying on as a Fed governor past May, a term that runs through 2028, the more Trump threatens him legally.

• As reported by another Politico article, Powell remaining on the Fed board could open up “a sticky legal conversation about whether Powell should continue as chair pro tem, or whether…the president should be allowed to pick from among the Fed board members.”

Meanwhile the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as reported by CREFC’s Policy & Capital Markets Briefing last week, has undertaken a significant regulatory pivot.

However, Bloomberg reports three headwinds continue to slow the agency down: 

• Six-week government shutdown that halted SEC operations; 
• 18% staff reduction from federal workforce cuts; and 
• New Trump-era requirement requiring independent agencies to obtain White House sign-off before proposing major rules.

Yes, but: Atkins says 30 or so rule proposals will be issued this year, with more than two-thirds focused on corporate finance. With midterms around the corner and rulemaking typically taking 18 months to two years, some market participants are concerned the window to lock in durable policy is narrowing fast.

In terms of topics relevant to the CRE finance space, CREFC is pleased to be able to respond to and work with the SEC on the:

• ABS Concept Release: Focused primarily on the RMBS market, this release invited industry input on any regulatory requirements related to the securitization markets as a whole. CREFC submitted a comment letter in December 2025 and followed up with a call with the SEC's Office of Structured Finance (OSF). CREFC is now preparing a second letter in response to direct questions from OSF staff.
• Rule 15c2-11: Issued in response to years of advocacy from CREFC and other market participants, the SEC has proposed to clarify that Rule 15c2-11, which governs dealer quoting in the equity markets, does not apply to fixed-income securities.
• Rule 17g-5: CREFC, joined by MBA and SIFMA, filed a formal Petition for Rulemaking with the SEC to update Rule 17g-5, which governs credit rating agency access to deal information.
  

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CREFC BOG Sentiment Index Falls 20% in 1Q26 as Geopolitical Shock Resets Market Tone

April 21, 2026

The CREFC Board of Governors Sentiment Index fell 20.2% quarter-over-quarter to 100.1 from 125.4 in 4Q25, essentially returning to the survey's 4Q17 baseline of 100.0. The survey was fielded April 7–13, 2026, with 91% of the BOG responding. All nine core questions declined from the prior quarter.

Why it matters: The index had risen for three consecutive quarters and was approaching its all-time high of 126.6 (4Q24). This quarter's reset – driven primarily by the Iran war's impact on rates, liquidity, and the macro outlook – erased those gains in a single quarter.

By the numbers:

• 54% expect the U.S. economy to perform worse over the next 12 months, up from 14% in 4Q25.
• 46% expect mortgage rates and cap rates to negatively impact CRE finance businesses, up from 0% in 4Q25 – the sharpest single-question reversal in the survey.
• 71% still expect higher borrower demand for CRE and multifamily financing, down from 97% but still the strongest core reading.
• 61% expect stronger investor demand for CRE and multifamily assets, down from 74%.
• 51% hold neutral industry outlooks, with 27% positive and 22% negative – versus 74% positive and 0% negative last quarter.

Yes, but: This looks more like a broad normalization after a very strong 4Q25 than a market shutdown. The sharpest deterioration came in areas most exposed to macro uncertainty and borrowing-cost sensitivity – economy, rates, liquidity. By contrast, demand-side readings held up materially better: borrower demand, investor demand, and CRE fundamentals all stayed net positive, suggesting the pipeline has not disappeared but the bar to transact has risen.

The topical questions reinforce the same message:

• Iran war impact: 61% say it keeps borrowing costs elevated by pushing out rate relief. Only 7% see no lasting effect.
• Refinancing risk: Secondary and lower-quality office loans remain the greatest concern (56%), followed by transitional assets that have not yet stabilized (32%).
• Distressed office CMBS workouts: No consensus on resolution path – 27% expect loans to remain in special servicing, while foreclosure/liquidation, discounted payoffs, and modifications each drew 24%.
• Lending sources: Banks are expected to lead new CRE lending (46%), followed by private credit (34%), well ahead of securitized lenders and life companies (10% each).
• Construction pipeline: 70% expect selective development in the highest-conviction sectors and markets – discipline, not shutdown.

What's next: The full 1Q26 survey results are available here. The survey will next be fielded in June for 2Q26 results.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Pressing Issues Push Housing Bill Back

April 21, 2026

Several must-pass priorities are stacking up as the House and Senate look to negotiate changes to the housing bill, H.R. 6644. 

Why it matters: House and Senate committee leaders have been negotiating changes to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, including revising the language banning large institutional investors from purchasing single family homes. 

However, there have been few public signs of progress on the housing bill, and other priorities, described below, may delay floor consideration: 

• Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA): Last week, the House and Senate passed a 10-day extension to avert a lapse in the program, which authorizes warrantless surveillance of foreign nationals abroad. Critics on the left and right have pushed for additional procedural protections for U.S. nationals while the White House is asking for a clean 18-month extension. 
• Homeland Security Shutdown: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) still lacks funding as it enters day 67 of the shutdown.
  • While the administration has made efforts to pay TSA agents, Democrats and Republicans refuse to budge from the core issues surrounding ICE and customs and border patrol (CBP).
  • The Senate GOP will attempt to use reconciliation to fund ICE and CBP (see below), but lawmakers will still need to fund the rest of DHS
• Reconciliation Part 2 and Beyond: Senate Republicans will start the reconciliation process, with a key aim of funding ICE and Customs and Border Patrol. The process allows tax and spending bills to pass the Senate with a simple majority. 
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants to keep this bill “skinny” and focused on ICE/CBP funding. Other priorities, including an Iran defense supplemental could be in a subsequent reconciliation bill.
  • Other GOP lawmakers want to add more items to this bill, including defense and affordability-focused items. 
  • On the money-raising front, the GOP may look to recoup federal funds by cracking down on fraud in federal spending. 
    

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Democrats’ Senate Fundraising Haul

April 21, 2026

Record-breaking Senate fundraising and shifting electoral expectations are reinforcing the likelihood of a highly competitive 2026 cycle, and a real chance that Democrats can flip the Senate.

Why it matters: While fundraising does not determine the election outcome, it can demonstrate voter support and energy for particular candidates. Public polling also indicates the Senate is trending in Democrats’ favor. 

By the numbers: In states where Democrats have coalesced around a nominee they are posting historically large early fundraising totals across the country. 

• In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico raised approximately $27 million in a single quarter, the largest amount ever recorded for a Senate race at this stage. 
• Other candidates in battleground states such as North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Alaska, and Maine also have reported multimillion-dollar quarters, reflecting strength for Democrats in must-win states. 

The graph below represents what each candidate or candidates raised in Q1-26. In the six states below, Democrats outraised their Republican opponents by $53M.

*In Texas, Georgia, and Maine, primaries remain unsettled. The total in these categories is the amount raised in Q1 for all candidates still vying for their parties nomination. 

At the same time, there are reports among Senate Republicans that they are starting to doubt their 2026 prospects. Despite entering the cycle with a nominally favorable map, GOP party strategists are increasingly wary of a more competitive environment. 

• They are citing primary challenges and broader political headwinds related to the war in Iran, rising costs of gasoline, and other household items. 
• Democrats need to net four seats to gain control of the Senate, and they are increasingly finding more avenues to do so. States like Alaska, Nebraska, and Iowa are coming into play, in addition to the other states listed above.
  

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

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CREFC’s 1Q 2026 BOG Sentiment Index Falls 20% to Baseline as Geopolitical Shock Reverses Three Quarters of Gains

April 20, 2026

NEW YORK, NY – April 20, 2026 – The CRE Finance Council (CREFC), the trade association for the commercial real estate finance industry, today released its First-Quarter 2026 (1Q26) Board of Governors (BOG) Sentiment Index survey results.

The index fell 20.2% to 100.1 from 125.4 in 4Q25, essentially returning to the survey’s 4Q17 baseline of 100.0 and erasing gains accumulated over the prior three quarters. The decline was broad-based, with all nine core questions deteriorating quarter-over-quarter. The sharpest pullbacks came from views on rates, overall industry sentiment, liquidity, and the economic outlook.

Conducted from April 7–13, 2026, the survey captured a sharp shift in sentiment driven by the onset of the Iran war and its cascading effects on interest rates, transaction pace, and the macroeconomic outlook. The survey consists of nine core questions and additional topical questions, which are not factored into the BOG Index. Ninety-one percent of the BOG responded to the 1Q26 survey.

Demand-side readings held up better than the rates and macro questions, even as they moderated from 4Q25 highs. Forty-one percent of respondents still expect improving CRE fundamentals over the next 12 months, 61% expect stronger investor demand for CRE and multifamily assets, and 71% expect higher borrower demand for financing — suggesting underlying market activity remains intact even as confidence in the macro backdrop has deteriorated significantly.

Key Highlights from 1Q26 Index Core Questions:

• Economic Outlook: Economic sentiment reversed sharply. A majority of respondents (54%) now expect the U.S. economy to perform worse over the next 12 months, up from just 14% in 4Q25, while only 12% expect improvement (34% no change).
• Federal Policy: Policy expectations cooled from 4Q25’s highs. Nearly half (49%) expect a neutral impact from federal legislative and regulatory actions, while 29% expect a positive impact and 22% expect a negative impact — a significant shift from 4Q25, when 60% expected positive effects and only 6% expected adverse ones.
• Interest Rate Impact: The rates question posted the sharpest pullback of any core question. Only 7% expect rates to have a positive impact on CRE finance businesses, while 46% are neutral and 46% negative — a dramatic reversal from 4Q25, when 69% reported a positive impact and 0% reported a negative one.
• CRE Fundamentals: Expectations weakened from 4Q25 but remained net positive. Forty-one percent expect improving fundamentals (occupancy, rents, NOI) — down from 51% in 4Q25 — while 37% expect no change and 22% expect deterioration.
• Transaction Activity: Investor demand expectations moderated but remain positive. Sixty-one percent expect increased demand for CRE and multifamily assets over the next 12 months (29% no change; 10% less demand), down from 74% in 4Q25.
• Financing Demand: Borrower demand remains the strongest core reading despite pulling back from 4Q25’s survey-record 97%. Seventy-one percent still expect increased borrower demand for CRE and multifamily financing (27% no change; 2% less), reflecting continued refinancing needs and acquisition activity.
• Market Liquidity: Liquidity expectations weakened materially. A majority (58%) expect no change, while 23% expect worse conditions and only 20% expect improvement — a sharp reversal from 4Q25, when 69% expected better liquidity.
• CMBS and CRE CLO Outlook: Views on CMBS and CRE CLO demand and spreads softened. Half (50%) expect a neutral impact, 33% expect a positive impact, and 18% expect a negative impact, down from 71% positive in 4Q25.
• Overall Industry Sentiment: Reset to neutral. A majority (51%) hold a neutral outlook for CRE finance businesses, while 27% are positive and 22% are negative — compared to 4Q25, when 74% were positive and 0% were negative.

Additional Topical Insights:

The survey’s topical questions point to a market focused on financing conditions, refinancing risk, and selectivity rather than a wholesale shutdown in activity.

Asked about the most likely impact of the Iran war on CRE finance over the next six months, 61% said it would keep borrowing costs elevated by pushing out rate relief, while 20% said it would freeze transaction and investment activity as investors wait for clarity. Twelve percent expect it to weaken property-level fundamentals through slower economic growth, and only 7% believe it will have no meaningful lasting effect on CRE markets.

On refinancing risk, respondents overwhelmingly pointed to secondary and lower-quality office loans as the borrower cohort facing the greatest risk over the next 12 months (56%), followed by transitional assets that have not yet stabilized (32%), multifamily loans in supply-heavy markets (7%), and hotel loans with high leverage or weaker sponsorship (5%).

Expectations for distressed office CMBS resolutions were notably dispersed, underscoring uncertainty around workout timing. Twenty-seven percent expect no near-term resolution, with loans remaining in special servicing, while foreclosure and liquidation (24%), discounted payoffs and note sales (24%), and modifications and extensions (24%) each drew roughly equal shares. The even distribution suggests the industry does not yet see a dominant workout strategy emerging for office distress.

Banks are expected to be the most active source of new CRE lending over the next 12 months, cited by 46% of respondents, followed by private credit and debt funds (34%). Securitized lenders (including CMBS, CRE CLO, and agency multifamily) and life insurance companies each drew 10%.

On new construction, the survey points to continued discipline rather than a broad rebound. Seventy percent expect selective development concentrated in the highest conviction sectors and markets, while 23% expect a modest slowdown, with most viable projects still moving forward. Only 3% expect a significant pullback — signaling that while development is becoming more targeted, the pipeline is not shutting down.

Open-ended commentary reinforced these themes. Compared with 4Q25’s emphasis on bifurcation between stronger and weaker assets, this quarter’s comments centered more on geopolitical shock, rate volatility, transaction delays, structural refinancing risk, and the growing importance of surveillance, servicing quality, and price discovery. Several respondents warned of downside asymmetry — noting that even a modest contraction in liquidity and velocity could, under the wrong conditions, become self-reinforcing.

Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of CREFC, commented:

About CREFC and the Board of Governors Sentiment Index:

The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) is the trade association for the over $6 trillion commercial real estate finance industry with a membership that includes more than 400 companies and 19,000 individuals. For over 30 years, CREFC has promoted liquidity, transparency, and efficiency in the commercial real estate finance markets, and acted as a legislative and regulatory advocate for the industry, playing a vital role in setting market standards and best practices, and providing education for market participants.

CREFC’s Board of Governors consists of senior executives representing every sector of the commercial real estate lending and mortgage-related debt investing markets, including balance-sheet and securitized lenders, loan and bond investors, mortgage bankers, private equity firms, loan servicers, rating agencies, attorneys, accountants, and others.

CREFC’s BOG Sentiment Index, launched in 2017, tracks quarterly shifts in commercial real estate finance sentiment through nine equally weighted core questions, supplemented by topical questions that are not factored into the index. The 1Q26 survey achieved a 91% response rate with 41 of 45 BOG members participating.

For more information about the 1Q26 BOG Sentiment Index and the full survey results, please click here or contact Raj Aidasani at raidasani@crefc.org.

Media Contact:
Mary Beth Ryan
Senior Director, Communications
646-884-7567
mryan@crefc.org

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