What Do the Q1 Fundraising Numbers for the Republican Presidential Primary Mean?
April 24, 2023
This early in the cycle, presidential primary candidates tend to struggle to gauge the success of campaigns because:
- The field isn’t complete; potential candidates are still weighing their options to determine if their candidacy is viable
- Polling is unreliable at best
These factors force candidates to focus on one data point to define their success, fundraising.
Why is fundraising so important?
It’s a key measure of a campaign’s viability. Convincing donors to part with their money ensures candidates have the resources to travel, pay for ads, staff, and host events deep into the primary.
Q1 Fundraising Results – The ‘Highs and Lows’
Last week, we got our first glimpse into how well the GOP candidates did in the first quarter (January- March) of the new cycle.
- Fmr. President Donald Trump (R) – Raised $14.4 million
- Vivek Ramaswamy (R) – Raised $11.4 million
- Fmr. UN Secretary Nikki Haley (R) – Raised $8.3 million after reports of double counting.
- Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) – Entered the race on April 12th, so we will get the first glimpse until the Q2 numbers are reported.
By Candidate: What Do the Numbers Mean?
Donald Trump. There is no denying Trump is leading the field and still has a grip on the GOP. Trump is a prolific fundraiser, but his April 2023 haul is about half of his fundraising in first-quarter 2019. But recall that Trump was the incumbent president in 2019 with no primary challengers.
Vivek Ramaswamy. Unlike Trump, Haley, and Scott, Ramaswamy is a complete political outsider. The $10.2 million of the $11.4 million he raised was a loan he made to his campaign. In the coming months, he will have to raise his profile to sustain his bid.
Nikki Haley - Haley’s $8.3 million dollar haul this quarter includes contributions from her joint fundraising and leadership committees. Her campaign ran into a bit of trouble when it initially released that she raised $11 million dollars. However, a closer examination of her Federal Election Commission filing for Q1 showed she double-counted transfers from her joint committee account, thus inflating her numbers. While Haley isn’t the only candidate to inflate her numbers, it may cause doubt in anything her campaign says regarding fundraising going forward.
Tim Scott - While he just launched his exploratory committee, Scott has $22 million in the bank. If an official announcement follows, Scott could enter this race with the largest campaign balance of any presidential contender.
Yes, but what about Gov. Ron DeSantis?
- DeSantis hasn’t officially declared his candidacy or said that he is launching an exploratory committee like Sen. Scott.
- If DeSantis were to enter the race, he would enter with a formidable $110 million dollar war chest.
- Allies of DeSantis say he is waiting for the Florida state legislature to overturn the “Resign-to-Run” law (which bars officials from seeking one office while holding another); the bill should make its way through the legislature in the coming weeks.
- Once the law passes or if anything changes for Gov. DeSantis, CREFC will bring you the latest.
The Big Picture: We are only weeks into the second quarter. There is plenty of time for candidates to jump into the race before the Q2 fundraising deadline. Watch for CREFC’s updates on the latest in the 2024 race to the White House.
If you have any questions, please reach out to Chelsea Neil at cneil@crefc.org.