Unprecedented Turmoil in Presidential Races
July 16, 2024
Both political campaigns paused their ad campaigns this weekend after the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. Ahead of this weekend, President Joe Biden and Democrats were trying to contain the fallout from his poor June 27 debate performance.
- A flurry of post debate polls have shown Biden’s position slipping to Trump’s and many election forecasters have increased Trump’s chance of victory following the presidential debate.
- 19 House Democrats have publicly called for President Biden to step aside while Senator Peter Welch from Vermont is the only Senate Democrat to urge Biden to quit.
- Biden still has strong public support among many members of his party, despite reservations about his viability as presidential candidate raised in public and behind-the-scenes.
The bottom line: Biden has enough delegates to secure the nomination, so the decision to remain in the race is his alone.
- 1,976 delegates are required to win the Democratic nomination, and Biden has 3,894. Two other candidates have a combined seven with another 36 uncommitted.
- However, if Biden is convinced to drop out, there is little to no precedent for what will happen next. He could give a speech at the Democratic National Convention outlining who he would like his delegates to vote for and this would strongly inform their opinions and actions.
The delegates that Biden won during the primaries are only bound by their conscience to cast their votes for Biden. The key phrase in the DNC rules is below.