Tennessee Special Election Shows Swing to Dems
December 9, 2025
Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District held a special election on December 2, after longtime Rep. Mark Green (R) resigned in July to take a private-sector job. The race drew national attention and major outside spending from both parties.
By the Numbers: Both parties treated the contest as a barometer for 2026 momentum: Republicans saw the closer-than-expected margin as a turnout warning sign without President Trump on the ballot. Democrats touted it as evidence that cost-of-living messaging can make headway even in hard-red terrain.
- Republicans nominated Matt Van Epps, a military veteran and former state official backed heavily by President Donald Trump.
- Democrats nominated Aftyn Behn, a progressive state representative who framed the race around affordability, inflation pressures, and cost-of-living issues.
The big picture:
- TN-7 is a deep-red, traditionally safe Republican seat, so Democrats’ over-performance was the storyline. Compared to the 2024 results, the district shifted 13 points toward Democrats, driven by strong turnout in the Nashville-area counties even as Republicans dominated the rural portion of the district.
- House math stays tight. Van Epps’ win preserves GOP control of the seat and helps maintain a narrow Republican House majority going into 2026.
- Affordability politics are potent. Behn’s gains were powered by economic messaging—housing cost pressures, inflation, and household affordability—and growing voter dissatisfaction with the governing party.
What they’re saying:
- Democrats are pointing to these results and recent Democratic victories in the off-year gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as other statewide races in Georgia and Pennsylvania, as evidence that their messaging is resonating with voters.
- President Trump’s 38 % average approval rating is also giving Democrats hope.
The bottom line: If Democrats can replicate this type of swing nationwide, that could put 30 seats in play that Republicans won by 13 points or less in 2024. However the 2026 midterms are still 11 months away.