Senate Primary Update
February 3, 2026
There are competitive primaries all across the country that will shape the midterms on both sides of the aisle. Below, we detail the most consequential primaries to the battle for the Senate and the dates of the contests.
Georgia (Democratic Incumbent): May, 19, 2026
- Georgia is shaping up as one of the marquee Senate races of 2026, mostly because Republicans still can’t seem to land a clean, obvious challenger to incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA).
- The GOP primary is a three-way fight between Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins, and former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley. Such a messy primary could easily go to a runoff, which would further drain GOP resources and delay consolidation.
Michigan (Open Democratic Seat): August 4, 2026
- Michigan Democrats have a crowded and potentially bruising primary that’s creating real risk for the party to keep retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ (D-MI) seat. Rep. Haley Stevens, state Senator Mallory McMorrow, and former gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed are all running, splitting the Democratic coalition three ways.
- Stevens brings fundraising strength and House experience, McMorrow has strong name recognition and grassroots energy, and El-Sayed appeals to the progressive wing, but carries baggage from his past statewide loss.
Maine (Republican Incumbent): June 9, 2026
- On the Democratic side, the primary is unusually intense. Gov. Janet Mills represents the establishment option, while Graham Platner, a veteran and oyster farmer with an outsider message, has built surprising momentum despite a string of controversies.
- If Democrats nominate someone damaged or overly polarizing, Collins’s crossover appeal becomes even more potent.
- Collins has been able to consistently win over Democratic voters in the state as a Republican. Maine voted for Harris by seven points in 2024 and voted for Biden by nine points in 2020, when Collins was last on the ballot.
Texas (Republican Incumbent): March 3, 2026
- Republican Sen. John Cornyn is facing serious challengers from within his own party from current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, as well as Representative Wesley Hunt (R-TX-38).
- The race will likely come down to Paxton and Cornyn, with polls indicating the race will be extremely close. However, with Hunt in the race it seems as though neither will reach the 50% threshold, meaning a runoff in May is likely.
- On the Democratic side, state senator James Talarico is leading Representative Jasmine Crockett (D-TX-30). It looks as though Talarico has a chance to win over 50% avoiding a runoff election, although polls show him just below that point as of today.
What’s next: As these states pick their nominees, they will shape their races and influence where each party plans to spend their money and resources. The candidates nominated to each of these races will be crucial to their parties success or failure this fall.
Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.