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Senate GOP Conference: The Trump Divide

May 15, 2023

The Senate Republicans conference has become increasingly divided on what former President Donald Trump’s role should be in the party moving forward. While GOP divisions over Trump are nothing new, the divide was sharpened last week as Trump was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation in a civil trial.

Why it matters: The 2024 Senate map is promising for Republicans this cycle. Of the 34 Senate seats up for election this cycle, Republicans only have to defend 11 seats. At the same time, Democrats have to defend 23 to keep their majority. And three of those Dem seats are Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.

The GOP Conference has split into two. This point of contention within the conference is electability, which goes beyond Trump’s merits as a candidate or his presidential record.

The Pro-Trump 2024 supporters among Senate Republicans argue that his record should speak for his candidacy given his grip on the party. Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) has endorsed Trump and released the following statement:

“I support him because we had record wage across the board, secure borders, we had jobs. If you look at the polls, he is up and his margin continues to grow. I’ve made my intensions clear. There’s a lot on the line.”

The other side of the conference, after two consecutive elections in the minority, believes Trump is the reason why Republicans don’t control the Senate. Sen.Todd Young (R-IN), who ran the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) in 2020, continues to make the case that Trump is a loser when it comes to elections.

“I don’t think there’s any problem with acknowledging that President Trump has habitually lost at the ballot box. And that’s certainly an important view that needs to be vocalized.”

Moving forward: Current NRSC chair, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) has already endorsed Trump as he begins to recruit candidates for the 2024 cycle. For now, Trump remains in a strong position among GOP voters and Daines’s move could be a strategic play to align Trump’s endorsement with more competitive candidates.

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