Senate Election Outlook Shake Up
March 24, 2026
As the battle for the midterms kicks into high gear the political outlooks are changing for Senate Republicans.
Why it matters: After the 2024 results, Democrats have had a tough 2026 senate map to contend with:
- All but two of the 22 Republican seats up for election are in states that President Trump carried by at least 10% in 2024.
- Democrats would have to flip four seats and hold seats in Georgia and Michigan, both of which Trump won in 2016 and 2024.
- There are four seats that have been considered toss-ups since the beginning of the cycle, they are Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia.
- Recent political headwinds for the Republicans have led many to believe that Democrats have a chance to compete in four more states: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa.
Texas
- In the Lone Star state, Democrats have dubbed the current situation a “perfect storm” for them to compete in the general election this fall.
- State Senator James Talarico prevailed over Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (D-TX-30). Talarico was viewed as the more moderate of the two and has made his faith a centerpiece of his campaign.
- On the GOP side, there is a messy primary going on between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The success of Talarico and infighting on the GOP sides makes this the best opportunity Democrats have had to win a Senate seat in decades.
Alaska
- Former Congresswoman Mary Peltola (D-AK) entered the race in January and immediately made the race more competitive. Peltola represented Alaska in the House of Representatives from 2022-2025, the first Democrat to do so since 1972.
- In 2024, the state voted for Trump by a margin of 13 points, while Peltola only lost her 2024 election by two points, outrunning Harris by double digits. If there is even a hint of a blue wave this fall, Peltola has a shot at winning the state.
Ohio
- Ohio is becoming a true toss-up, even in a state Trump carried by 11 points in 2024. Democratic nominee and former Senator Sherrod Brown lost by only 4 points in 2024, significantly outrunning the top of the ticket.
- In an election cycle that is looking promising for Democrats, Brown has a great shot to take back the seat.
Iowa
- Iowa’s open-seat race is unexpectedly competitive after Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announced her retirement.
- Despite Iowa’s GOP tilt, Democrats see an opening thanks to a competitive midterm environment. Ernst won her last election by six points and President Trump won the state by 13 points.
- Democrats are deciding between Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist who represents the reddest state house seat held by a Democrat. The other option is progressive candidate Zach Wahls, a state Senator who is a sixth-generation Iowan who is currently serving in the state's Senate.
- On the GOP side, Congresswoman Ashley Hinson (R-IA) is the likely nominee with a host of endorsement, including President Trump.
The bottom line: Strong candidate recruitment and macro political environment dynamics may put enough seats in play to make Democratic control of the upper chamber a possibility.
Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.