Q1 Congressional Outlook
February 3, 2026
While the duration and fallout from the ongoing government shutdown may slow progress on a number of congressional priorities, GOP leaders are hoping to move on an ambitious agenda ahead of the midterm elections.
Why it matters: The closer Congress gets to the midterms, the less likely lawmakers will be able to muster bipartisan support for their efforts. While the House and Senate have relatively robust session schedules, both chambers will take the traditional August and October (in election years) recesses.
The big picture: After the current fiscal year funding is resolved, Congress will have to act on FY 2027 before October 1, either with appropriations bills or a continuing resolution. The following are items we expect Congress to work on in the near-term:
- Housing Bills: The broadly bipartisan Housing for the 21st Century Act could see action on the House floor in February. However, the larger question is how the House and Senate will work to meld the House legislation with the Senate-passed ROAD to Housing Act. While both were bipartisan, some GOP House members have concerns over certain spending programs in the Senate Bill.
- TRIA: The strong bipartisan vote from the House Financial Services Committee on reauthorizing the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) makes action on the House floor an easier proposition in the near-term. The bill could move on the suspension calendar (requiring a two-thirds majority vote) or hitch a ride on larger legislation. Action in the Senate will likely continue beyond Q1.
- Cryptocurrency: Senate Banking action on the bill has stalled over ongoing disagreement between traditional financial institutions and the crypto world. The bill would institute statutory and regulatory oversight for the digital asset space. However, the market structure effort will not likely be as bipartisan as the GENIUS Act, which covers stablecoins.
- Confirmations: As we cover above, the Senate Banking Committee will consider Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. Yet, Sen. Thom Tillis’ procedural opposition will effectively delay confirmation.