Midterm Update: Redistricting Clouds Outlook
October 21, 2025
The 2026 midterm elections are one year away. Between shifting approval ratings and irregular mid-cycle redistricting there are many variables affecting the election next November.
- The most important metric to measure the outcome is the President’s job approval rating.
- Historically, when the President’s job approval is net-negative one year out from the midterm, the party in power has lost seats in the subsequent midterm elections one year later. President Trump’s approval rating is currently hovering around 40%.
- On this metric alone, the Democrats should feel good about their chances to retake the House and gain seats in the Senate, however the picture is more muddled than that, as we detail below.
House: In 20 of the past 22 mid-term elections since 1938, the party that occupies the White House loses ground in the House after the midterms. However, with redistricting underway in states across the country, this trend could be dampened.
Other states are expected to follow suit on both of the Democratic and Republican sides.
- Vice President JD Vance has made two trips to Indiana to try and convince the state legislature to draw new maps to support the GOP. Governor Mike Braun (R-IN) has expressed openness to the proposal. The states congressional delegation has seven Republicans and two Democrats.
- State representatives and governors from New York, Maryland, and Illinois have all expressed support for redistricting to varying degrees, however the feasibility of all theses states passing new maps in time for the 2026 election looks unlikely.
- Redistricting is certain to have a tangible impact on the 2026 midterms. However, due to court challenges, ballot initiatives, state constitutions, and time constraints, the success of these efforts is unclear.
Why it matters: Mid-cycle redistricting is very uncommon and its effectiveness could vary by state. The timing of all this will be crucial, as it is now a race to get new maps approved to be utilized before the 2026 midterms.
Senate
The Senate map heading into 2026 strongly favors Republicans as they currently hold a 53-47 advantage with only a few vulnerable seats at this stage. Democrats would need to net four total seats to win a majority.
- Key battlegrounds include North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio.
- North Carolina, Maine and Ohio are the top pickup opportunities for Dems, and Senate Minority Leader Schumer landed all of his top recruits in all three states. Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC), Governor Janet Mills (D-ME), and Former Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH).
- These candidates are all seen as the most likely to flip those seats to the Democrats column. Notably they are all over the age of 68, and Janet Mills at 77 would be the oldest freshman Senator in history if she wins.
- In Georgia and Michigan, Democrats are on the defense. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is defending his seat, and there is an open seat in Michigan being vacated by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).
What they’re saying: Analysts widely view control of the chamber as “Republicans’ to lose,” with Democrats facing an uphill task even assuming favorable national conditions. However, a favorable recruiting class for Democrats has buoyed their hopes to retake the chamber.