Government Shutdown Update
October 7, 2025
The federal government shutdown is approaching its first full week. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has also lapsed.
What they’re saying: Little progress has been made in the stalemate.
- White House: President Donald Trump and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought have been threatening to fire more federal workers as part of a reduction in force during the shutdown. Vought has also canceled funding for federal energy and infrastructure projects in “blue” states.
- Senate: Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) teed up another vote last Friday on the House Continuing Resolution (CR), which failed. While Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and his caucus remain opposed to reopening the government, several moderate Dems have voted for the clean CR.
- House: The House has been out of session since it passed the CR, and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has framed the path forward as the Senate passing the clean CR. Johnson has been contemplating keeping the House out until the Senate acts. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) continues to push for action on expiring Affordable Care Act insurance tax credits.
What’s next: The Administration’s layoff threats and spending cancellations may embolden Democrats and lengthen the shutdown. Several scenarios will likely play out this week:
- The impact of the shutdown will intensify over time as furloughed and essential government workers will start missing paychecks beginning on Oct. 10.
- The Senate will likely keep voting on the House CR as a way to pressure and peel off moderate Democrats. Assuming the partisan breakdown remains the same, five more Democrats would need to join to advance the CR.
- Standalone bills to pay active duty military may start to be introduced and considered if the shutdown lengthens. The votes will aim to add pressure to Democratic holdouts.
- Reports indicate that some Republicans are nervous the shock of ACA premium increases could threaten them during the midterms. This could add pressure to find a compromise solution that will suffice for Democrats to support a CR.
Yes, but: Even if the shutdown is resolved with the House CR, that kicks the next deadline to November 21.
- While congressional appropriators are confident they can pass the 12 appropriations bills to fund the government by then, the task will be complicated by the White House funding cancellations.
- Fiscal year 1997 was the last time Congress passed all 12 appropriations bills on time. Other years have been enacted via continuing resolutions or omnibus bills that bundle multiple appropriations bills together.
Contact David McCarthy (Dmccarthy@crefc.org) with any questions.