Government Funding Outlook: Shutdown Risk Looming
September 9, 2025
The September 30 government funding deadline is approaching, and Congress is again facing the familiar pressure of avoiding a shutdown.
Why it matters: A government shutdown can be harmful to the party that triggers it.
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The 60-vote filibuster threshold in the Senate means the GOP will likely need at least seven Dems to join to advance spending legislation if all the GOP support the bill.
- Over in the narrowly divided House, Democratic votes may be necessary if various GOP blocs object to the funding.
- Republicans are hoping to enact funding, while putting Democrats in a tough spot to either force a shutdown or acquiesce to a GOP budget.
However, some Democrats are concerned that the Trump Administration might welcome a shutdown and use the increased temporary discretion to unilaterally cut spending.
The big picture: Only a few appropriations bills have cleared committee, and divisions remain between the House and Senate over spending priorities. In short, the typical funding process is far from completed.
It’s unclear if six months later, Democrats will do anything different to prevent or force a shutdown. They face two difficult choices:
On the other side of the aisle, some in the GOP are pushing for a funding deal that extends into March or even April 2026. Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), a senior appropriator and Freedom Caucus Chair, has floated the idea of a deal that would stretch into December 2026: