Government Funding Outlook: Shutdown Risk Looming

September 9, 2025

The September 30 government funding deadline is approaching, and Congress is again facing the familiar pressure of avoiding a shutdown. 

Why it matters: A government shutdown can be harmful to the party that triggers it.
  • KRE 2025-AIP4, a $740 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for KKR to refinance 29 industrial properties totaling ~7.5 million sf located across six states.
  • BLP 2025-IND, a $540 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Brookfield to refinance 54 industrial properties totaling ~6 million sf located across 16 states.
  • SCG 2025-DLFN, a $457 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Starwood and Dalfen Industrial to acquire a portfolio of 38 industrial properties totaling ~5 million sf across 10 states.

By the numbers: Year-to-date private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totals $33.5 billion, 179% higher than the $12 billion for same-period 2024. 

Spreads Slightly Wider
  • Conduit AAA spreads were wider by 3 bps at +81, while A-S spreads were wider by 5 bps at +110; AA and A spreads were unchanged at +130 and +160, respectively. 
  • Conduit BBB- spreads were unchanged at +415.
  • SASB AAA spreads were wider by 3 bps, ranging from +110 to +120, depending on property type.
  • CRE CLO AAA and BBB- spreads were unchanged at +125 / +130 (Static / Managed) and +350 / +365 (Static / Managed). 
Agency CMB
  • Agency issuance totaled $1.9 billion last week, consisting of $1.2 billion in Freddie K and Multi-PC transactions, $481 million in Fannie DUS, and $256.2 million in Ginnie-Mae transactions.
  • Year-to-date agency issuance totaled $22.4 billion, 31% higher than the $17 billion for same-period 2023.

The Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

Economic Data
  • Consumer Spending Weakness: Inflation-adjusted consumer spending dropped by 0.5% in January, marking the largest monthly decline in nearly four years. While partly attributable to severe weather conditions and a post-holiday pullback, the moderation in services spending suggests deeper underlying caution among consumers. As Gregory Daco, Chief Economist at EY, noted: 

Contact  

James Montfort
Manager,
Government Relations
202.448.0857
jmontfort@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2025 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.

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