Government Funding Outlook: Shutdown Risk Looming
September 9, 2025
The September 30 government funding deadline is approaching, and Congress is again facing the familiar pressure of avoiding a shutdown.
Why it matters: A government shutdown can be harmful to the party that triggers it.
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KRE 2025-AIP4, a $740 million SASB
backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for KKR to refinance 29 industrial properties totaling ~7.5 million sf located across six states.
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BLP 2025-IND, a $540 million SASB
backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Brookfield to refinance 54 industrial properties totaling ~6 million sf located across 16 states.
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SCG 2025-DLFN, a $457 million SASB
backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Starwood and Dalfen Industrial to acquire a portfolio of 38 industrial properties totaling ~5 million sf across 10 states.
By the numbers: Year-to-date private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totals $33.5 billion, 179% higher than the $12 billion for same-period 2024.
Spreads Slightly Wider
- Conduit AAA spreads were wider by 3 bps at +81, while A-S spreads were wider by 5 bps at +110; AA and A spreads were unchanged at +130 and +160, respectively.
- Conduit BBB- spreads were unchanged at +415.
- SASB AAA spreads were wider by 3 bps, ranging from +110 to +120, depending on property type.
- CRE CLO AAA and BBB- spreads were unchanged at +125 / +130 (Static / Managed) and +350 / +365 (Static / Managed).
Agency CMB
- Agency issuance totaled $1.9 billion last week, consisting of $1.2 billion in Freddie K and Multi-PC transactions, $481 million in Fannie DUS, and $256.2 million in Ginnie-Mae transactions.
- Year-to-date agency issuance totaled $22.4 billion, 31% higher than the $17 billion for same-period 2023.
The Economy, the Fed, and Rates…
Economic Data
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Consumer Spending Weakness: Inflation-adjusted consumer spending
dropped by 0.5% in January, marking the largest monthly decline in nearly four
years. While partly attributable to severe weather conditions and a post-holiday pullback, the moderation in services spending suggests deeper underlying caution among consumers. As Gregory Daco, Chief Economist at EY,
noted: