First 100 Days: Legislative Update
January 28, 2025
Just days after President Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration Republicans have begun to take advantage of a lawmaking “trifecta” to advance their priorities.
Why it matters: Trump’s non-consecutive second term and the narrow House margin add to the pressure to deliver tangible results early in the administration. The Senate is focused on confirming key nominations while congressional leaders and the White House focus on the reconciliation bill.
Reconciliation: The process is slowly giving way to substance in the complex legislative maneuvers necessary to bypass the Senate 60-vote filibuster threshold. President Trump and House Republicans continue to support one bill encompassing immigration, energy, and tax, while the Senate favors splitting off tax.
What they’re saying: The chambers appear to be dual-tracking the effort as lawmakers work on policy. On the tax front, Punchbowl News broke some key details last week:
- House GOP Committee Chairs are considering $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion in spending cuts to help offset reduced revenue from tax changes;
- $2 trillion of cuts, including per capita caps for Medicaid — which would put a limit on federal dollars sent to states — along with Medicaid work requirements and pharmacy benefit manager reforms;
- $500 billion in cuts, largely through targeting student loans via a reduction in loan amounts and limitations on certain existing, authorized forgiveness programs;
- Between $100 billion and $250 billion in cuts to SNAP benefits and food stamps;
- To get to $66 billion in potential savings, the panel is targeting federal workers’ retirement and benefit programs: the Federal Employees Retirement System and the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program through an audit and raising worker contribution rates;
- $27 billion in options, including a variety of different immigration fees such as charges for asylum application and annual renewal, detention, parole, and visa overstays;
- $26 billion in savings would include raising tonnage duties for ships, and electric vehicles fees that would go into the Highway Trust Fund;
Yes, but: The narrow House margin means that almost all House GOP members must support the eventual bill, assuming no Democrats support it. In 2017, 13 House Republicans voted against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
What’s next: Policymakers will continue negotiating cuts and tax policy, though we expect topline numbers in February on how much the tax bills will “cost” and how much lawmakers plan to cut.
Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with any questions.