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Elections to Watch: NY, NJ, and VA 

October 28, 2025

We are one week out from the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia and the mayoral race in New York City. 

New Jersey Governor: The Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill holds a stable lead against GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, but the margin is narrow and has shrunk substantially since the summer. Recently some Democrats have been raising alarms about an enthusiasm gap for Sherrill. 

• The current polling average shows Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) 48% vs. Jack Ciattarelli (R) 44%.
• Ciattarelli came extremely close to beating Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021, as Murphy only won by 3%. Murphy won election in 2017 by over 13% of the vote. 
• New Jersey is a state that has been trending red in recent years, with Harris winning the state by only 6%. This was the tightest margin of victory on the Presidential level for a Democrat in the state since 1992 when President Bill Clinton originally flipped the state blue. 
• Republicans have had success in New Jersey’s off year elections with former Governors Christine Todd Whitman and Chris Christie both winning two-terms as Republicans in 1994, 1997, 2009, and 2013. 
• Over eight years, Democrats have seen their support erode dramatically from comfortable double digit wins to single digit victories. Please see below for details.

Source: RealClearPolitics

Virginia Governor: The current polling average has Abigail Spanberger (D) 50% vs. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) 44%. However, the race has not been without controversy.

• Democratic AG nominee Jay Jones has come under fire after leaked 2022 text messages revealed he fantasized about shooting then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert—writing that Gilbert “gets two bullets to the head” and suggesting harm to his family—with the remarks drawing swift bipartisan condemnation. 
• Polling shows a sharp slide in Jones’ support, handing incumbent Jason Miyares a modest lead as the campaign shifts into the final stages.
• However, this scandal has not seemed to impact the top of the ticket yet, with a recent poll still putting Spanberger seven points ahead of Earle-Sears.

Why it matters: Each party will use these elections as a way to hone their strategy going into the 2026 midterms. 

• The historical trend dictates that the Democrats should win these elections, as typically the party opposite the President wins the off year gubernatorial races. 
• However, if either GOP candidate is able to win, the party will take it as a sign that they are in a good spot heading into the midterms next fall.
  

• Multiple polls show Zohran Mamdani (D) with a double-digit advantage over Andrew Cuomo (I), with Curtis Sliwa (R) in third. Barring a monumental upset, Mamdani is likely to be elected next week.
• The race has turned into a referendum on the cost of living, crime, housing affordability, and the direction the city takes during the second Trump Administration.
• Progressives are likely to claim a Mamdani victory as a mandate, while moderates will begin to distance themselves from him. 
• President Trump will be even more likely to criticize Mayor Mamdani as a foil over the next year.

Please contact James Montfort with any questions at (Jmontfort@crefc.org). 

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