Trump Wary GOP Senators
June 2, 2026
President Donald Trump has demonstrated again that his influence over Republican primary voters remains unmatched. He has challenged and beaten members in both the House and Senate for perceived disloyalty to him over the past few weeks.
Trump-backed candidates ended the political careers of two longtime Republican senators. Trump separately helped push a third toward the exit last summer.
- Texas: Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in a stunning primary upset after securing Trump's endorsement.
- Louisiana: Sen. Bill Cassidy lost renomination after years of strained relations with the president following his impeachment vote.
- North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis opted against seeking reelection last summer after Trump publicly threatened to support a primary challenger.
Why it matters: These outcomes are a powerful reminder that Trump remains the dominant force within the Republican Party. Very few elected Republicans are likely to miss this lesson.
However, governing is different from campaigning. The members who lost their primaries will continue serving in the Senate for the remainder of this Congress and do not have political futures that depend on demonstrating loyalty to the president.
- This reality creates a potentially uncomfortable dynamic for the White House, which still faces major legislative battles over its agenda in Reconciliation 2.0, judicial appointments, appropriations, and government funding this fall.
- Recent reporting has already identified what some observers are calling a Republican "wounded bear caucus"; i.e., retiring or departing senators who are more willing to challenge the administration when they disagree with its positions.
Cornyn, Cassidy and Tillis sit squarely in the wounded bear caucus, while other Senators (McConnell, Collins, and Murkowski) may vote against Trump as well. As we detail below, if they remain unified, the six of them could effectively stall the GOP agenda in the Senate.
Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is retiring and voted against multiple Trump cabinet picks last year; there could be more to come as he has no reason to help Trump during his final six months in Congress.
Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) & Susan Collins (R-ME) both voted to convict President Trump on impeachment charges in 2021, and may be emboldened to vote against him moving forward.
The president won the primaries. Whether he can maintain the Senate coalition necessary to enact the rest of his agenda before the midterms remains a more complicated question.
The bottom line: Trump's success in reshaping the Republican Party may come with a governing cost. By proving he can remove dissenters from future Republican positions, he may also have created a group of senators who feel little obligation to support him in the present.