Table of Contents

CRE Finance World, Winter 2013

Contents C RE F in a n C E W Rl d ® T h e V o i c e o f C o m m e r c i a l R e a l E s t a t e F i n a n c e 3 Letter From the Editor Brian P. Lancaster, RBS 4 Welcome Letter from Stephen M. Renna Publisher: Joseph Philip Forte, Esq. Stephen Renna, CEO, CRE Finance Council Editor-in-Chief: Brian P. Lancaster 6 The Year Ahead in D.C. – New Faces in Congress, Regulatory Bodies Michael Flood, Vice President, Legislative & Regulatory Policy, CRE Finance Council Managing Editor: Paul Fiorilla Design: Bruce Zahor 8 CRE Finance Roundtable: Outlook for 2013 Layout: Kristin Searing Moderator: Brian P. Lancaster, Co-Head of Structured Transactions, Analytics, Risk and Strategy Markets, RBS Participants: CRE Finance Council Staff Sam Chandan, President & Chief Economist, Chandan Economics Stephen M. Renna Bruce R. Cohen, Senior Partner, Ares Management LLC Chief Executive Officer Nelson Hioe, Managing Partner, Raith Capital Partners Ed DeAngelo David Nass , Managing Director , Head of Capital Markets - Real Estate Finance , UBS Securities LLC Vice President, Technology & Operations Bill O’Connor, Partner, Thompson & Knight LLP Michael Flood Francisco Paez, Director, Head of CMBS & International Structured Finance, MetLife Vice President, Legislative & Regulatory Policy Clay M. Sublett, SVP - Loan Originations, KeyBank/Key Corp Real Estate Capital, Inc. Stephanie Heliker Production Manager 18 Guideposts for Federal Housing Policy Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum Erin Liberatore Director, Meetings 20 CMBS - Party Like Its 2007 Alexandra Ong How Deteriorating Credit Standards are Bringing Us Back to 2007 Meetings Coordinator/Administrative Assistant Edward L. Shugrue III, Chief Executive Officer, Talmage, LLC Andrea Rouse Director, Administration 24 Legacy CMBS Credit Outlook for 2013: Don’t Get Caught Swimming Naked Aaron K. Bryson, CFA, Principal, Spring Hill Capital Partners Martin Schuh Assistant Vice President, 28 The Freddie Mac K Program: Quality, Stability, Liquidity Legislative & Regulatory Policy Brian P. Lancaster, Co-Head of Structured Transactions, Analytics, Risk and Strategy; Stacy Stathopoulos RBS Global Banking & Markets Vice President, Strategic Initiatives Joseph Ruszkowski, CFA, CMBS Strategy, RBS Global Banking & Markets Richard Hill, CMBS Strategy, RBS Global Banking & Markets CRE Finance Council Europe Hannah Liebing 39 Pending Seismic Rating System will Improve Commercial Property Resilience and Value Events/Finance Coordinator, Europe Eric Von Berg, CMB, Principal, Newmark Realty Capital, Inc. Carol Wilkie Evan Reis, SE, Co-Founder, U.S. Resiliency Council Managing Director, Europe 42 Some Counterintuitive Predictions for Multifamily Properties Victor Calanog, Head of Economics & Research, Reis, Inc. Brad Doremus, Senior Analyst for Economics & Research, Reis, Inc. Michael Steinberg, Analyst for Economics & Research, Reis, Inc. 46 Certainty in the Face of Change: Why the Shifting Seniors Housing and Healthcare Market Will Remain a Strong Investment Jeff Walraven, Assurance Partner, Real Estate , BDO USA, LLP Karen Stone, Tax Partner, Real Estate, BDO USA, LLP Volume 15, Number 1, Winter 2013 48 Office Vacancies And Efficient Space Use CRE Finance World® is published by the Howard Y. Esaki, Managing Director, Global Head Of Structured Finance Research, Standard & Poor’s Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC®), James M. Manzi, CFA, Senior Director, Structured Finance Research, Standard & Poor’s 900 7th Street NW, Suite 820, Washington, DC 20001 email: info@crefc.org, website: www.crefc.org. 52 Construction Debt Casts Long Shadow Over Banks’ CRE Portfolios © 2013 CREFC - Commercial Real Estate Finance Council, Jack Mullen, Founder and Managing Director, Summer Street Advisors, LLC all rights reserved. 54 A Modest Outlook for CRE Finance Advertising: For information regarding advertising within Eduardo J. Martinez, Senior Economist, Moody’s Analytics CRE Finance World, please contact Stephanie Heliker, CREFC, phone: 646.884.7578, fax: 646.884.7569, email: sheliker@crefc.org. 60 The Timing of CMBS Losses An update on past industry studies in light of recent Editorial: Questions? Comments? Send queries and letters to CMBS performance and the Great Recession Letters to the Editor, Brian P. Lancaster, Editor-in-Chief, David Nabwangu, Senior Vice President, CMBS, DBRS Inc. CRE Finance World, email: brian.lancaster@rbs.com. This publication is provided by CREFC for general information 64 Post-Bankruptcy Interest on Oversecured Debt: How Much Can You Get? purposes only. CREFC does not intend for this publication to be a Stuart A. Laven, Jr., Benesch Friedlander Coplan & Aronoff LLP solicitation related to any particular company, nor does it intend to provide investment advice to investors. Nothing herein should be construed Forum Updates: to be an endorsement by CREFC of any specific company or its products. 66 Forum Spotlight: CREFC Servicers Forum We advise you to confer with your securities counsel to determine Brian Hanson, Managing Director, CWCapital Asset Management LLC whether your distribution of this publication will subject your company to any securities laws. 68 Forum Spotlight: CREFC High Yield Debt and Investment Forum CRE Finance World assumes no responsibility for the loss or damage Bill O’Connor, Partner, Thompson & Knight of unsolicited manuscripts or graphics. We welcome articles of interest to readers of this magazine. Opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of CREFC. CRE Finance World Winter 2013 2


CRE Finance World, Winter 2013
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