New Memo Gives Insights into the 2022 Mid-Term Elections
December 20, 2021
Last week, a widely-watched observer of trends in politics, former senior advisor to President Bill Clinton, Doug Sosnik, released a memo “A Look Ahead to the 2022 Midterm Elections and Beyond” that explores the potential outcomes of the 2022 mid-term elections.
The memo argues that the mid-terms will serve as a referendum on Democratic leadership and stewardship. Sosnik identifies late-summer 2022 as a critical time for determining the outcome of the mid-term elections. Summer 2022 is a critical time because views “formed by how people feel about the current direction of the country and their daily lives” are “hardened by the end of summer in the runup to voting in the fall.” That gives Democrats six to eight months to turn their perceived polling weakness around. Sosnik writes that the state of the economy (inflation, employment, GDP growth) will determine the Democrats’’ fate in 2022, noting that “These three metrics most accurately gauge the strength of the economy and impact how voters think about the future.”
Sosnik also argues, “The results of the 2016 and 2018 elections led to five widely held assumptions that the 2020 Presidential elections and this year’s off-year elections demonstrated to be false.”
Sosnik believes that 2022 will be the best political environment for Republicans since 2010, adding that history is on the Republicans’ side in 2022 as the party in the White House traditionally loses House seats.