Senate Election Outlook
July 15, 2025
The 2026 Senate elections are shaping up as one of the most fiercely contested political battles in recent memory, with control of the chamber hanging in the balance.
Why it matters: Republicans currently hold a 53–47 advantage, which means Democrats would need to gain at least four seats outright—or three to force a 50–50 tie that would still be broken in favor of the GOP by Vice President JD Vance.
The map is proving far more favorable to
Republicans than Democrats. Democrats are forced to defend several vulnerable seats, including in states where their incumbents have retired — like Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
The Senate is seeing more retirements than typical at this stage in
the election cycle, on both sides of the aisle, with seven Senators announcing they are heading for the exits. If this trend continues, the 2026 midterm elections are likely to look very different in November 2026.
Some of the most competitive seats include:
- Georgia: Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) faces a tough reelection in a purple state where Republicans are betting on a Trump-aligned challenger to flip the seat. Ossoff got a lifeline when current Georgia Governor Brian Kemp decided not to run for the seat, but he has a long way to go toward being re-elected. Still, avoiding a race against a popular Governor certainly helped his chances.
- Michigan: An open-seat battleground after Sen. Gary Peters’ (D-MI) retirement, with both parties seeing it as one of the best pickup GOP opportunities on the map.
- North Carolina: A true toss-up following Thom Tillis’ retirement, the open seat sets up an expensive and bitter fight in a classic swing state. This was predicted to be a bitter re-election fight regardless, but Tillis’ retirement announcement certainly doesn’t help Republicans who will likely have to navigate a tricky primary.
- Maine: Republican Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) plans to run again, but remains vulnerable in a blue-leaning state, making it one of the GOP’s riskiest holds. If she retires, the seat immediately becomes the best pickup opportunity for Democrats of the whole map.
- Minnesota: Democratic Sen. Tina Smith’s retirement is unlikely to present a flip opportunity as the state is reliably blue. Republicans have not won statewide since 2006. Still, President Trump’s closer than expected losses may give some in the GOP hope.
- New Hampshire: This seat will be highly competitive after Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-NH) retirement, with Democrats scrambling to defend an open seat in a state Biden carried.
- Ohio: Currently held by Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), who was appointed to fill the vacancy created by VP Vance, a special election adds a layer of unpredictability in a state trending more conservative. If former Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) decides to try and make a comeback, Democrats could have a shot at flipping the seat.
Republican intraparty fighting threatens traditionally safe seats: Despite controlling the Senate, the party is seeing messy and divisive primaries, often pitting Trump-aligned hardliners against traditional conservatives.
- Texas: Senator John Cornyn (R) is up against a favorite of the MAGA wing of the party, with controversial former Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose close ties to Trump may help him in the primary. Republicans in the state worry Paxton may not fare as well in November and could throw the election to the Democrats.
- Iowa: Senator Joni Ernst is reportedly torn on whether or not to run for another term. The Senator made headlines at a town hall earlier this year when she said “we are all going to die”, in response to constituents concerns that the Republican reconciliation bill would cause her constituents to lose their healthcare coverage. Her seat has since moved from “safe Republican” to “likely”, a shift in favor of Democrats.
A major wildcard in the race is the sudden entrance of Elon Musk’s new “America” party, which has pledged to run candidates in multiple Senate contests. Although Musk and his new party are unlikely to win any Senate seats, his movement threatens to siphon votes away from Republicans in closely contested states, potentially throwing the advantage to Democrats in places like Georgia or North Carolina.
The bottom line: Republicans are favored to retain control of the Senate. However, with the Tillis retirement and infighting between Republican candidates, coupled with the historical precedent for the party in power to have a challenging midterm environment, Democratic control of the Senate isn’t totally out of reach.