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Polling and Election Update

October 29, 2024

With Election Day just a week away, millions of Americans have voted in person or cast their ballots by mail. Another 100 million voters are expected at polling stations next Tuesday.

By the Numbers: Where the Race Stands as of today:

October 7 polls show the race to be a statistical tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Now, three weeks later, polls suggest the race has shifted slightly in Trump’s favor.

• Trump leads by an average of 0.9% and has gained nearly all of that momentum over the last three weeks.

Every swing state remains within the margin of error, but the momentum has shifted in Trump’s favor. The presidential race is as close to a coin flip as it has been since Harris entered the race in late July.

In the battle to control the Senate, a similar story emerges, Republicans have gained ground in nearly every race in the last three weeks, ranging from 1.7-3.6%, not an insignificant amount in a tight race.

• As the table above demonstrates, this momentum has moved four Senate races (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio) into margin-of-error territory.
• Arizona and Nevada also have seen significant movement in favor of the Republicans, but Democrats still maintain sizable leads in each of those races.

The bottom line: Republicans are guaranteed a pickup in ruby-red West Virginia, due to the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).

• One more pickup likely guarantees them control of the chamber, regardless of who wins the presidential race. With Montana now looking solidly in the Republican column, they are clear favorites to regain the Senate.

In the race to control the House, Republicans are also gaining momentum.

• On Oct. 7, Democrats led in generic polling by 1.4%, and today the Republicans lead by 0.8%, a gain of 2.2% in the Republicans’ favor.
• While generic polling is not nearly as precise as specific race polling, it can indicate a general sentiment toward one party or another.
• The House will come down to less than two dozen races and is also a coin toss. The polling website 538 predicts nearly a 50-50 chance that either party wins control.

What does it all mean? While polls show the momentum has swung in Republicans’ favor across the nation, the race remains stubbornly close and either party still has a chance at grabbing a win in the House or Presidency.

Please contact James Montfort at Jmontfort@crefc.org with any questions.

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