November Outlook - Inflation and Mixed
September 19, 2022
There are 50 days until the midterm election.
- Historically the party in the White House and in control of Congress does not fare well in midterm elections. Yet, as gas prices continue to drop and President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats are increasingly confident they will break this precedent.
These accomplishments have led Democrats to think they might be able to keep their majority after all.
Why it matters: Heading into the August Recess, Democrats appeared to be hurtling toward a potentially grim midterm election. After the August recess, the scenario for Democrats appears brighter.
Mixed Predictions By Democratic Leadership
Last week, House Democratic Leaders insisted they will not only maintain their majority but will pick up seats. Considering the historical precedent, this bullish claim is a bit of a surprise. Still, given Democrats’ recent wins and the political climate, it may not be entirely out of the question.
But Senate Majority Leader, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), acknowledged Democrats are in trouble and will lose the House. He predicted, “that if the election was held today, there is a 60% chance we hold the Senate and a 40% chance we hold the House.”
Why this matters: After a bruising primary season, Democrats are looking better than anticipated.
- Bullishness can help boost Democrats’ confidence and performance.
- Under-promising and over-delivering is a compelling strategy.
Also boosting Democratic prospects, Republicans appear distracted.
- Infighting between Senate Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and NRSC Chair Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) over candidate recruitment continues amid a sharp drop in fundraising by the Republicans’ campaign arm.
- Last week Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) introduced a bill banning abortion after 15 weeks, which goes beyond the Dobbs decision earlier this summer. Republicans across the country dismissed Graham’s bill as “a distraction that divides the GOP and reminds voters that most of them see the party as too extreme on abortion,” shortly before the midterms.
Bottom Line: Anything can happen during the next 50 days, including an “October surprise.”