CREFC's October 2021 Monthly CMBS Loan Performance Report
November 19, 2021
CRE Finance Council has released a report on CMBS loan performance for the month of October.*
CMBS DELINQUENCY RATE DROPS BELOW 5%
STRONG SASB PERFORMANCE CONTINUES
- The overall 30+ day CMBS delinquency rate fell by 64 basis points (bps) in October to 4.6%, the largest monthly drop since February 2021 (79 bps) and the 16th consecutive monthly decline
- The delinquency rate is 570 bps lower from its peak of 10.3% in June 2020, but still elevated relative to its pre-pandemic level of 2.2% at the end of 2019
- The pandemic-related CMBS delinquency peak was similar to that reached during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) at 9.8%. Yet, unlike the GFC, pandemic-related delinquencies were quick to reverse course, falling 40% within 10 months.
- REO asset volume has been significantly more muted during the pandemic than the GFC. The REO rate since the onset of the pandemic has remained consistent at ~1%, while the rate following the GFC eventually surpassed 3%.
- The sharp declines in delinquent and special serviced loans suggest that pandemic related REO volumes will continue the trend and be substantially lower than in the GFC
- The overall performance for both conduit and SASB CMBS is sound with delinquency rates at 1.6% for SASB and 6.1% for conduit
- The same applies for ‘in-foreclosure’ loans and REO assets at a combined 0.7% for SASB CMBS and 2.8% for conduit CMBS
- Total specially serviced loan rates are also low at 5.3% for SASB and 8.2% for conduit
- The outperformance of SASB CMBS is due primarily to the institutional-quality assets and sponsorship associated with larger loans and the heightened capital liquidity of the borrowers
SPECIAL SERVICING RATE CONTINUES STEADY DECLINE
- Continued Decline in Special Servicing Volume: Loans in special servicing fell 32 bps to 7.2% in October, the 13th consecutive monthly decline
- All five major property types saw decreases, with hotel and office leading the way with decreases of 67 bps and 34 bps, respectively
- The special servicing rate is down from a high water mark of 10.5% in September 2020
- There are currently $39.2 billion of loans in special servicing (vs. ~$14 billion at year-end 2019)
- In-Foreclosure and REO Loans Remain De-Minimis: Given the high percentage of loans in special servicing one year into the pandemic, one would anticipate in-foreclosure and REO rates being much higher; instead, they remain low at 1.3% and 0.9%, respectively
- Low rates reflect forbearances granted by special servicers – forborne loans are captured under servicer watchlist data and special servicer comments
- According to BofA Global Research, as of October 2021, 520 loans across 292 conduit deals had delinquency statuses of foreclosure or REO, while an additional 115 loans across 96 deals mentioned foreclosure/dual tracking in the servicer commentary. About 40% of these loans are backed by retail properties and ~34% are backed by hotel properties. 2014 and 2015 vintage loans were the most impacted.
- Servicers do not expect rates to spike if/when foreclosure moratoriums are lifted as servicers continue to report loans as ‘in-foreclosure’ if that is a strategy they plan to pursue once moratoriums are lifted
*Source: Trepp. CMBS data in this report reflect a total outstanding balance of $597.3 billion: 65.0% ($388.1B) conduit, 35.0% ($209.3B) single-asset/single-borrower (SASB).
Click here to download the full report. Contact Raj Aidasani for more information on CMBS loan performance.