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CRE Finance World, Summer 2012

ULI Survey of Real Estate Economists Total returns for equity REITs are expected to be 10% in 2012, For the housing industry, the survey results suggest that 2012 9% in 2013 and 8.5% in 2014, a sharp decrease from the surging could mark the beginning of a turnaround — albeit a slow one. returns of 28% in both 2009 and 2010, but settling closer to the Single-family housing starts, which have been near record lows more sustainable level seen in 2011. Total returns for institutional- over the past three years, are projected to reach 500,000 in 2012, quality real estate assets, as measured by the National Council of 660,000 in 2013, and 800,000 in 2014. The national average Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries Property Index, have also been home price is expected to stop declining this year, and then rise strong over the past two years and these returns are expected to by 2% in 2013 and by 3.5% in 2014. The overhang of foreclosed remain healthy, providing returns of 11% in 2012, 9.5% in 2013, properties in markets hit hardest by the housing collapse will con- and 8.5% in 2014. tinue to affect the housing recovery. However, in general, improved job prospects and strengthening consumer confidence will likely A slight cooling trend in the apartment sector — the investors’ bring buyers back to the housing market. darling for the past two years — is seen in the survey results, with other property types projected to gain momentum over the next Readers may read the entire forecast which is featured on the two years. By property type, total returns for institutional quality ULI’s web site: www.uli.org. assets in 2012 are expected to be strongest for apartments, at 12.1%; followed by industrial, at 11.5%; office, at 10.8%; and retail, The next ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast is scheduled for at 10%. By 2014, however, returns are expected to be strongest release in September 2012. for office, at 10%, and industrial, at 10%, followed by apartments at 8.8% and retail at 8.5%. YOUR PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR CMBS ANALYTICS Bloomberg’s comprehensive analytics help users stay ahead of the market with tools such as CMBS pricing service (BVAL), enhanced user-defined loan modifications and ASERs assumptions, and a NEW property re-underwriting module. SURVEILLANCE Knowledge is power. Make better, faster, smarter decisions utilizing the flexibility of our deal and portfolio surveillance and asset management tools, on the terminal and with our suite of MS Excel API solutions. BREADTH AND DEPTH OF BLOOMBERG Expand your analyses. Loan and property fundamentals are consumer and market driven. Take advantage of our expanding commercial real estate database, and access market statistics, corporate events, news, trade ideas, research, and much more. New York San Francisco +1-212-318-2000 +1-415-912-2960 ©2011 Bloomberg Finance L.P. All rights reserved. 43497205 0511


CRE Finance World, Summer 2012
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